Daily Fantasy Golf Preview: Tour Championship

Cheat Sheet

The Format

Before getting into the course or the event itself it might be best to start with the new format. The pricing on DraftKings is more spread out because all of the golfers will start with a different score, giving an advantage to those that have more FedEx Cup points. This was done to ensure that the winner of the Tour Championship was also the winner of the FedEx Cup Championship. Below is a list of each player’s pricing and the score that they will be starting at in the tournament.

Golfer DK Price Starting Score
Justin Thomas 15500 -10
Patrick Cantlay 12400 -8
Brooks Koepka 12200 -7
Rory McIlroy 10600 -6
Patrick Reed 10200 -5
Jon Rahm 9900 -4
Webb Simpson 9700 -4
Xander Schauffele 9500 -4
Hideki Matsuyama 9300 -4
Matt Kuchar 9100 -4
Tony Finau 8800 -3
Rickie Fowler 8600 -3
Dustin Johnson 8400 -3
Adam Scott 8200 -3
Gary Woodland 8000 -3
Tommy Fleetwood 7700 -2
Paul Casey 7500 -2
Brandt Snedeker 7300 -2
Abraham Ancer 7100 -2
Justin Rose 6900 -2
Kevin Kisner 6600 -1
Marc Leishman 6300 -1
Corey Conners 6100 -1
Sungjae Im 5900 -1
Louis Oosthuizen 5700 -1
Bryson DeChambeau 5500 E
Jason Kokrak 5300 E
Lucas Glover 5200 E
Chez Reavie 5100 E
Charles Howell III 5000 E

The Course

  • East Lake Golf Club
  • Atlanta, Georgia
  • Par 70
  • 7,346 yards
    • Donald Ross design (hosted since 2004)
    • Lengthy course; the shortest of the four par 3’s is 197 yards, six out of the twelve par 4’s are longer than 450 yards, and there are only two par 5’s (one of which reaches out to 590 yards)
    • It’s a somewhat open/somewhat tree-lined course
    • There’s water on about 1/3 of the holes and close to 75 bunkers
    • Bermuda greens and rough, zoysia fairways
    • The greens are fast
    • It’s a second shot course, making GIR and iron play very important

Key Stats

  • SG: tee-to-green
    • SG: approaching-the-green
  • GIR
  • Proximity
  • 3 putt avoidance

The Field

  • Top 30 in the FedEx Cup ranking

Strategy

The strategy this week is going to be very unique with the new format (most of which will be highlighted below in my picks) but the main thing that I wanted to hit on, for GPP’s especially, is that because there is only 30 golfers in this field – it may be smart to not use all of your salary when making your lineup to ensure that you won’t have a highly duplicated lineup.

For example: you get $50,000 to pick six players but if you make all of your picks and leave several hundred dollars unspent then there is a good chance that almost no one has the same lineup as you. You shouldn’t feel obligated to do this but it is another way to leverage against the field when it comes to ownership.

Big Dogs ($9,100 and up on DK)

Solid (Cash) & Risky (GPP)

    • Justin Thomas ($15,500 DK – $14,200 FD) – it’s going to really help if you have the winner of this tournament and my model is projecting that roughly 2/3 of the time the winner this week will be either Justin Thomas or Patrick Cantlay. This means that it might be worth it to pay the extremely high price tag. Everyone will have four days to play because there is no cut-line again so if you pair the right guys down low that do some serious scoring then you will have a good chance of winning, even in GPP’s.
      • Patrick Cantlay ($12,400 DK – $12,300 FD)

Risky (GPP)

    • Brooks Koepka ($12,200 DK – $12,100 FD) – Koepka hasn’t been great in the playoffs so far finishing 30th in the first round and 24th last week and in his last three tries at East Lake he has only finished better than 18th once (remember… it’s only a 30 man field). But with most of the focus on the two guys that were in the final pairing last week and who start with the best odds this week (JT and Cantlay), this might be a good time to take the big game hunter that may be overlooked right beneath them… Koepka. I also believe that the people who don’t go for the Hail Mary of stars-and-scrubs this week will make balanced lineups of guys who start at -3 in the $8,000’s in the hopes of getting a couple guys into the top 10; so starting with Brooks, Rory, or Rahm could be a good ownership pivot.
      • Rory McIlroy ($10,600 DK – $11,400 FD)
      • Jon Rahm ($9,900 DK – $10,700 FD)

Value ($6,900 – $9,000 on DK)

Solid (Cash) & Risky (GPP)

    • Justin Rose ($6,900 DK – $9,000 FD) – my favorite play for his value this week (so he might be one of the most popular golfers) is none other than Justin Rose. He is the only guy that is under $8,000 that has a good chance to crack the top 10 according to my model — about 27%. Other than his +1 second and third rounds last week he has been playing great golf recently and Rose has had good finishes here over the past couple years: three of his last four attempts have been top 5’s and his worst finish was a 10th place finish.
      • Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700 DK – $8,200 FD)

Risky (GPP)

    • Dustin Johnson ($8,400 DK – $10,100 FD) – DJ has still been floating around without any great recent finishes but he has a style of game that really suits this course and he does have a good track record at the Tour Championship with three finishes of 6th or better in the last four years. He starts at -3 with four other golfers and he could go overlooked yet again this week but maybe the new format will jump-start his play where the pressure is on a different level coming into the tournament Thursday. Also, in an event where the leader starts off with a 10 stroke advantage it might be a good idea to take a chance on the most talented golfer in this range, despite poor recent play.
      • Gary Woodland ($8,000 DK – $8,800 FD)

Sleepers ($6,800 and under on DK)

Solid (Cash)

    • Sungjae Im ($5,900 DK – $7,200 FD) – Im has only missed one out of his last ten cuts so out of the bottom third of golfers this week (in terms of pricing) he might be the safest bet. He’s only shot over par in one out of his last twelve rounds and his last three finishes have been 6th, 38th, and 11th. Even though Sungjae only starts the event at -1, making a top 10 somewhat unrealistic, he could still do enough scoring to make that $5,900 price tag more than worth it.
      • Louis Oosthuizen ($5,700 DK – $7,500 FD)

Risky (GPP)

    • Lucas Glover ($5,200 DK – $7,000 FD) – Glover narrowly made it into the final leg of the playoffs with his 7th place finish at the BMW Championship last week and he will start at even par this week in the Tour Championship. What I like most about him way down here is that he has been of of the best tee-to-green and bogey avoidance players over the last several years and Glover has shown the ability to go super low in a round, unlike anyone else priced below Justin Rose at $6,900 (besides DeChambeau of course), which will be very valuable in this week’s format.
      • Bryson DeChambeau ($5,500 DK – $7,600 FD)

 

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Mark Lee

Written by 

Detroit sports fan, also sufferer of seasonal depression (the two might be related). Avid golfer and former college baseball player. Would've been in the league if it weren't for my lack of ability. Accountant by day, fantasy sports guru by night.