Less than Zero: a look at Negative Yardage Lost by the RB Position

A serious fantasy owner will agonize over various statistics. Even seemingly irrelevant data is fair game if it connects to the player at hand. Conversely some owners may turn a blind eye to certain statistics, particularly if they are negative.

For example, fumbles lost and interception categories might be dismissed from significance because they may be minimal or sporadic. They reason that a couple of fumbles per season, or even double digit interceptions thrown are minimized by the sheer volume of touches or passes attempted.

However, what if there were a negative statistic that was more common than fumbles lost? More frequent than even interceptions thrown? The category is Negative Yards Lost.

Thanks to our research friends at ProFootball Reference, I queried offensive plays that gained zero yards or less.

Last season there were 2,798 offensive plays that resulted in zero yards gained or less.

Those 2,798 plays represent nearly 9% of all offensive plays called in the NFL.

Put another way – a negative play occurred once about every 11 plays. Here’s where it gets interesting.

Of those 2,798 plays, 2,232 of them involved the RB position. This means that a whopping 16% of RB touches (rushing attempts and receptions) lost yards or gained zero – or roughly every 6 touches by a running back. This was a staggeringly shocking statistic.

Perhaps some coaches expect negative yardage? After all, not every designed play gets executed as planned. Yet, would you drive a car that wouldn’t go forward every sixth trip? Would you be annoyed if a light bulb wouldn’t glow every sixth time you used it? Would you want to change your toilet if it backed up every sixth flush?

Admittedly these idioms are an exaggeration just to make a point.

It may be speculative, yet I can’t imagine that coaching staffs would continue to use certain running backs if they were more susceptible to negative yards. Especially since the unofficial goal of NFL coaches is, “You play to win the game,” quoting legendary coach Herm Edwards.

Are some RB more susceptible to negative yards?

The chart below shows RB that recorded 100 touches or more in 2018. It then lists the total number of negative (and/or no gain) plays, along with the total negative yards lost.

The chart is sorted by worst offenders to the best.

RB	Tm	Neg Plays	Yards Lost	Touches	Loss % per Touch
Elijah McGuire	NYJ	33	-38	111	29.7%
LeGarrette Blount	DET	47	-62	164	28.7%
Carlos Hyde	JAX	45	-32	182	24.7%
Josh Adams	PHI	31	-33	127	24.4%
Tevin Coleman	ATL	47	-90	199	23.6%
LeSean McCoy	BUF	45	-70	195	23.1%
Nick Chubb	CLE	48	-50	212	22.6%
Adrian Peterson	WSH	61	-83	271	22.5%
Alex Collins	BAL	29	-47	129	22.5%
Peyton Barber	TB	56	-73	254	22.0%
Isaiah Crowell	NYJ	36	-50	164	22.0%
Chris Ivory	BUF	28	-33	128	21.9%
Alfred Morris	SF	26	-41	119	21.8%
Dion Lewis	TEN	46	-73	214	21.5%
Dalvin Cook	MIN	37	-49	173	21.4%
Ito Smith	ATL	24	-45	117	20.5%
Saquon Barkley	NYG	68	-117	352	19.3%
Joe Mixon	CIN	53	-80	280	18.9%
Royce Freeman	DEN	27	-23	144	18.8%
Lamar Miller	HOU	43	-65	235	18.3%
Jamaal Williams	GB	27	-24	148	18.2%
Alfred Blue	HOU	31	-31	170	18.2%
Tarik Cohen	CHI	31	-62	170	18.2%
Marshawn Lynch	OAK	19	-23	105	18.1%
Leonard Fournette	JAX	28	-45	155	18.1%
Nyheim Hines	IND	26	-36	148	17.6%
Jordan Howard	CHI	47	-51	270	17.4%
Doug Martin	OAK	32	-26	190	16.8%
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	38	-44	227	16.7%
Kareem Hunt	KC	34	-44	207	16.4%
Sony Michel	NE	35	-22	216	16.2%
Kenyan Drake	MIA	28	-51	173	16.2%
Marlon Mack	IND	34	-29	212	16.0%
Melvin Gordon	LAC	36	-39	225	16.0%
Theo Riddick	DET	16	-34	101	15.8%
Matt Breida	SF	28	-47	180	15.6%
Latavius Murray	MIN	24	-24	162	14.8%
David Johnson	ARI	45	-49	308	14.6%
Chris Carson	SEA	39	-29	267	14.6%
Todd Gurley	LAR	46	-65	315	14.6%
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	54	-54	381	14.2%
Kerryon Johnson	DET	21	-19	150	14.0%
Aaron Jones	GB	22	-30	159	13.8%
Mark Ingram	NO	22	-16	159	13.8%
Austin Ekeler	LAC	20	-33	145	13.8%
Mike Davis	SEA	20	-17	146	13.7%
Frank Gore	MIA	23	-17	168	13.7%
Wendell Smallwood	PHI	15	-30	115	13.0%
Derrick Henry	TEN	30	-43	230	13.0%
James Conner	PIT	35	-37	270	13.0%
Christian McCaffrey	CAR	40	-50	326	12.3%
Alvin Kamara	NO	29	-49	275	10.5%
James White	NE	19	-15	181	10.5%
T.J. Yeldon	JAX	14	-7	159	8.8%
Jalen Richard	OAK	10	-9	123	8.1%
Gus Edwards	BAL	10	-1	139	7.2%

Just to pick on a few who are relevant in the 2019 draft rankings:

• Nick Chubb does not gain positive yards every 4.4 touches on average.
• Peyton Barber every 4.5 touches.
• Dalvin Cook every 4.7 touches.
• Saquon Barkley every 5.2 touches.
• Joe Mixon every 5.3 touches.
• Tarik Cohen and Leonard Fournette every 5.5 touches.

On the other side of the spectrum, some of the better backs included Gus Edwards, who had the best average, only losing yardage a rare 13.9 touches.

• Alvin Kamara is next every 9.5 touches.
• James Connor and Derrick Henry every 7.7 touches.

Maybe this is interesting?

After all, it seems that every RB will not always gain positive yardage. Some may also argue, justifiably, that these negative gains reflect on the offensive line, the offensive coordinator or even the quarterback’s effectiveness.

While I agree it is a little unfair to pin this all on the running back position, every April we are reminded that most draft-worthy running backs earn a spot in the NFL because, as their scouting reports will boast, they have a propensity to gain positive yards and break tackles.

Well, what happens when they don’t break tackles and gain positive yards under the microscope of the NFL?

It’s very possible this data has absolutely no impact on how coaches will distribute touches to their running backs? But if you were the coach, would you ignore it, or would you give more touches to the backs that do it less frequently?

 

Visit Fantasy Rundown for additional fantasy football articles and 2019 rankings.