MLB DFS Starting Points for Tuesday 4-30

Things are going to be a little different this year. Here’s what to expect from this article. Each day, the first thing I do is go through each game and look at the matchups for both the pitchers and hitters, highlighting things that stand out to me. Some of the research may present glaringly obvious plays, but other stuff may require a little bit more research. Regardless,  I make a full list of notes on everything that jumps out.

I’m going to share this full list of notes with you to use however you’d like. Whether you want to blindly take plays from it or use it as your own research starting point, it’s yours to use how you see fit. I personally use this list to dive deeper into my research before making any final decisions. Sometimes that makes me more excited about a play, but other times, I uncover things that steer me away from a particular play. I will note that I compile this list each day before reading anything else around the industry, so my thoughts aren’t influenced whatsoever. Lastly, keep in mind, I primarily play tournaments and on DraftKings.

As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Twitter, and I’d love to hear your feedback on the new format. You can find me here: @mrclutchdfs

Today’s Starting Points

Anibal Sanchez can’t get lefties out. Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong are fine plays.

Adam Wainwright might be just as bad against lefties, making Adam Eaton, Juan Sotoand Matt Adams solid plays as well.

Detroit has a lot of strikeouts and not a lot of power. Vincent Velasquez has strikeout upside and seems a bit safe at the same time.

It should go without saying, but Trevor Bauer is an elite pitching option on this slate against the Marlins.

Luis Castillo has been better against lefties this season, thanks in a large part to his increased K-rate which is up to 31.4% against the handedness. This Mets lineup lacks power outside Conforto and Alonso, and they only have three guys with a sub-20% K rate, while the rest fall between 20-40%.

Jason Vargas is squarely in gas can territory, but this Reds lineup is fairly weak. With that said, Eugenio Suarez may be one of the best plays on the slate. I also don’t mind Yasiel Puig and will consider other righties that end up in the lineup.

It’s another Boston Red Sox stack night. Aaron Brooks has been bad, and I can’t see him not getting lit up here.

Gerrit Cole is a stud, and he’s the third highest priced pitcher on DK. Unfortunately, he’s facing the Twins, who barely strike out and have a lot of good hitters. With that said, Verlander kept them in check last night, so I won’t be surprised if Cole posts a solid line. I’m just not sure the massive upside is there tonight.

Michael Pineda is still struggling against righties. The Houston Astros are the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball for a pitcher who struggles against righties. However, Jake Odorizzi shut them down last night and they’ve all been in a bit of a slump, so I’m not sure I’m going to go there on a 15 game slate.

Adrian Sampson is showing to be a reverse splits pitcher in a small sample size. He’s been okay against lefties, but struggled against righties. The issue is that the predicted lineup for the Pirates has 7-8 lefties. I’m not sure what to think about that. All in all, a Pirates stack will be in play.

The Chicago White Sox stack is squarely in play against Andrew Cashner. I LOVE the righties, including Abreu, Anderson, Castillo, and Cordell. Throw in the lefty of your choice to round out the stack.

Ivan Nova isn’t good against lefties. I think Villar, Smith, and even Chris Davis make solid plays here. Nova has struck out less than 10% of the lefties he’s faced this season, which negates some of the massive downside Davis has. Don’t forget Stevie Wilkerson if he’s in the lineup. He’s still just $2300 on DK and makes an easy plug and play in this matchup.

Lefties against Jake Junis is a thing and I really like some of the lefties in the Rays lineup. I think Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier, and Nate Lowe all make solid plays.

Blake Snell is worth every penny on this slate. This Royals lineup has five guys with a K-rate against lefties north of 25% since the start of last season. Two more strike out more than 20% of the time. Couple that with Snell’s 32% K-rate over that span and I’m prioritizing him in my lineups. This Royals team did get to Snell in his last start in his first game back from a toe injury, but I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and I think he gets revenge here.

Walker Buehler is in a good spot, but I think I’d just pay a few more dollars for Snell, as Buehler probably isn’t going to get up to 100 pitches.

Griffin Canning is a solid prospect seeing his first big league start. He’s been exceptional in three starts in Triple-A this season. This Toronto lineup strikes out a lot and Canning has solid stuff to generate strike outs, so he’s worth a shot. I wish he was a little cheaper, but he still provides some relief.

I’m fine with just about and Chicago Cubs bat against King Felix, but I’m not forcing them in. It’s more of a thing where if I have just the right amount of salary left at any one position, I’ll take them as a one-off.

I still think Cole Hamels is pitching over his head and we’re going to see the wheels fall off sooner than later. If I’m mass multi-entering, I would most definitely have my fair share of Seattle Mariners stacks. The top half of the order is crushing left handed pitcher.

 

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Eric S

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Eric has played fantasy football for over 20 years now and is primarily a GPP player in DFS. He estimates he enters lineups in football, basketball, baseball, golf, MMA, and Nascar contests roughly 350 days a year. As primarily a DFS tournament player, Eric is currently ranked inside the top 3% in Rotogrinders Tournament Player of the Year rankings, as well as being in the top 20% in the Heavyweight rankings. His favorite teams include the Detroit Lions, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the Atlanta Braves.

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