Francisco Lindor was being taken as a top 5 pick prior to his injury. The injury is most likely a grade 2 calf strain which is a slight tear in the muscle. These injuries typically take 6 weeks to fully heal, thus his 7-9 week time frame to getting back to MLB activity. Of course Mets fans remember Jose Reyes’ injury in 2009 which was a calf, I mean hamstring, I mean calf injury. This lingered for a while, but one has to wonder if Reyes was misdiagnosed by the then Mets medical staff, which was definitely out there at the time. It appears that this is a definitive diagnosis for Lindor, and the timetable should be accurate.
It is Feb 9th. Seven weeks brings us to March 30th. Nine weeks to April 13th. If it takes Lindor until April 13th to return, he would miss 14 games. The last 3 seasons he played 158, 159, 158 games. Steamer has him at 149 games this season (not sure if this was updated post injury) with 31 HR, 92 RBI, 105 R, and 21 SB. Assuming he misses 14 games and reducing his numbers by 9.4%, his numbers now project to 28 HR, 84 RBI, 96 R, and 19 SB. Compare that to another SS 17 HR, 69 RBI, 96 R, 41 SB. This second SS will now go 8-15 spots ahead of Lindor in most drafts. Yes, Trea Turner is worth it considering the stolen bases, but in every other category, even at the reduced projections, Lindor matches or exceeds Turner’s production.
Now here’s the twist. If you look at the Indians’ schedule, they play all of their first 14 games in cold weather cities. They open up in Minnesota on March 28th. First of all, why does MLB do this to the schedule? There is probably a 40% chance of snow that day. After opening in Minnesota, the Indians come home to balmy, dry Cleveland for 6 games and then go to Detroit and Kansas City. Yes, by the end, it is the middle of April, but I’d say there is a fair chance with this schedule that there may be some postponements. If this happens, that’s fewer games that Lindor will potentially miss.
Knocking Lindor down from the 4 spot in ADP is the prudent thing to do considering he will miss some time. We have no idea how his rehab will go at this time, and the time-table could get even worse for all we know. I just see an opportunity here to grab Lindor at his now projected second round ADP and garner first round ADP production.