Start Em’ or Sit Em’ – NBA DFS 10/18

To start or not to start. That is the question.

Many DFS players will go crazy editing their lineups for hours on end when the correct plays are looking them right in the face. Yes, I am talking about myself as well.

Too many times I have passed up the likes of Ben Simmons for Dario Saric. Too many times. That is why I went back to my roots – the first time I ever tried to mathematically create a lineup instead of going on my gut. And it is actually a lot simpler than you think.

So, what you do is take the players last 5 games and average them out. This isn’t going to work tonight because a lot of these teams haven’t even played a game yet this year. So instead of that number we will replace it with their projections. All you do is divide this number by the player’s price tag and then x 1000 to get their value. For example, Ben Simmons is projected for 48 points and his price tag is $7,000 then his value would be .00685714 x 1000 = 6.857 (I rounded to 3 decimals). Also that was all hypothetical to show you how I determine value very easily.

This value number is something that I use a lot while making my lineups. I will find the value for all of the players and then basically play the guys with the highest value. But, you also need to add some critical thinking here. Just because a guy’s value number is higher than another one doesn’t necessarily equal more fantasy points. You need to use the value number in combination with a few other variables like projected minutes, usage % & injury news.

Now it is time to talk about our main topic: Start Em’ or Sit Em’

Start Em’

Justin Holiday ($4,300) – Holiday is in a good position for a lot of playing time tonight with Kris Dunn & Denzel Valentine being ruled out. The Bulls are very thin at the Small Forward spot and I expect Holiday to see north of 30 minutes in this game. At such a cheap price tag I have Holiday marked at a 6.512 value rating and my starting SF.

Ben Simmons ($9,500) – I am not going to make this mistake again. Ben Simmons is going to use his 6’10” frame to dominate the weak defensive PGs of CHI. His stat line last game was this – 19 points, 15 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 blocks, 4 steals. This guy is going to make a push for MVP this year I can just feel it.

Josh Richardson ($6,200) – As long as Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow & James Johnson continue to be out, Josh Richardson will continue to be relevant. Richardson saw 38 minutes in their first game last night vs Orlando showing that he is their #1 guy for offense. He faces off tonight versus the Bradley Beal & John Wall led Wizards in what looks to be a high scoring game.

John Wall ($8,200) – This is way too cheap for a player like John Wall who receives almost 100 touches per game. He is a top-tier PG who is projected to receive around 38-40 minutes if this game is close. Wall averaged 19.4 PPG with 9.6 APG which was lower than usual due to injuries last year. He is healthy, but the price tag doesn’t reflect.

Brandon Ingram ($6,700) – Holy cow this guy has been going off in the preseason. But my worry is that with LeBron coming into LA the team looks a little congested from a DFS perspective. Mainly because I am not sure who will be the hot hand for the Lakers on any given night. I do like that Ingram looks to be the #1 scoring option for the Lakers and that they run an extremely fast paced offense.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300) – I have always thought this guy was a beast ever since he played alongside Nikola Jokic in Denver. He is quick and nimble for a man his size and it results in a lot more 5-stat-production than other centers. Nurkic is going to receive around 35 minutes and will have a really easy matchup versus the Lakers who lack big man depth.

Sit Em’

Kris Dunn ($6,600) – He isn’t playing.

Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,200) – Sure he is starting but I already can tell you what is going to happen. Joel Embiid is a beast down low and Carter Jr. is no match. Look for Robin Lopez to play more minutes than Carter Jr.

Markelle Fultz ($4,500) – Terrible showing versus the Celtics two nights ago. 5 points on 2/7 shooting is not going to cut it for someone who is supposed to replace J.J. Reddick. Fultz has lost all of his MOJO and I don’t think Austin Powers is going to be able to help him get it back.

Kelly Olynyk ($6,100) – No clue why he is more expensive than Goran Dragic tonight. Especially after playing only 15 minutes versus Orlando.

Dwight Howard ($5,900) – Questionable with a back injury but has been practicing so will probably play tonight. Dwight Howard didn’t play in the preseason which doesn’t bode well for developing chemistry with his new teammates. I hate Dwight tonight.

LeBron James ($10,800) – Really hard for me to say sit LeBron because he could easily drop a triple double in his sleep. The problem for me revolves around that fat price tag. He could justify it if he puts on a retro LeBron performance but with a much better team around him in LA I don’t believe he will even need to.

Rajon Rondo ($5,800) – Rondo was brought in during the offseason to help the Lakers shore up some PG depth for a deep playoff run. Rondo will also be the immediate starter for the Lakers as far as I know, but unfortunately he will probably receive less playing time than backup Lonzo Ball.

 

You got any problems with my Start Em’ or Sit Em’ ?
Let me know on Twitter @DailyHitman

Greg Bunch - AKA the Daily Fantasy Hitman

Written by 

Gregory R. Bunch aka The Daily Fantasy Hitman. I am a 23-year old who lives at home with his parents and loves Football & Basketball. I graduated from SDSU with a BA in Economics and have always been passionate about stats and analytics. DFS is the perfect marriage between those two.

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