NFL Buy and Sell: Week 4

One-fourth of most fantasy seasons are over – about a third of the fantasy regular season. So what are we doing on the trade market?

We need to be ok holding onto some underperforming assets. If you are 0-4, unless you are a top scorer and getting a ton of bad luck, you need a big lottery ticket. Sometimes what people don’t realize is they have that lottery ticket on their team.

Sitting at 0-4, there is a legitimate chance you went you went David Johnson and Rob Gronkowski with your first two picks. Those guys have underperformed, sure, but what is your opinion of them rest of season?

Is Johnson an RB2? Is Gronk just another tight end with some weekly upside? If you say yes then we agree to disagree, but if you think Johnson is a low-end RB1 and Gronk is still a top-three tight end, you have the guys you should be trading for already.

For the next few weeks depth will be important, but if I am sitting in a decent spot I am trading that depth to make my end of season roster better. Once week 10 comes everyone has this in mind and you won’t be able to get it done. Acting now gives you the best chance with limited competition.

BUY

  • Alvin Kamara

I’m going to start with a guy that isn’t a buy low – just a buy. Kamara is dominating fantasy leagues, and it is going to be really hard to pry him away from an owner that is likely having a lot of success because of Kamara. That being said, this might be your last chance to buy.

Kamara is setting up for a David Johnson like 2016 season where he doesn’t do it all on the ground, but 2,000 total yards and 20 total touchdowns are possible. The only reason you might be able to get Kamara is because Ingram is returning from suspension and the Kamara owner might have workload concerns.

I am not saying it will be easy, or even possible, but if you aren’t checking in on Kamara this week it is a mistake.

  • David Johnson

It has been a bad year for DJ, but this was a great sign. This was his best game to date; he reached the 100 total yard mark and found the end zone. There will be many panicked Johnson owners that are thankful this game came so they can trade him for anything. There will also be owners that use this as a reason to keep Johnson and keep hope alive that he rebounds.

The number one overall player David Johnson possibility is gone. Not this year… not in this offense. But low to mid level RB1? That is still on the table. Who are we definitively taking over him right now? Gurley, Kamara, Zeke, Gordon, Barkley. Then we start saying probably and maybe.

The best part about this game is he got 25 touches. This isn’t something that is unsustainable; Johnson should be getting 20-25 touches per week. That volume alone should put him in the same area as Barkley.

Obviously touchdowns make fantasy point totals misleading, but Johnson has 12.7, 5.1, 12.1,15.2 points in non-ppr leagues. The disappointment isn’t in terms of the points he has put up, it’s just not the points we wanted him to put up.

  • Julio Jones

Same as last week. Julio keeps dominating with the yards – just wait until the touchdowns come. You might be lucky enough that a Julio owner thinks he is selling high.

  • Kenyan Drake

Ok, ok. I know. It has been really bad, but can you say dirt cheap? Drake is unstartable until he does something, so there is a good chance there is a team in your league in need of a starting running back – many drafted Drake to be a starter.

I am still trying to get Drake, and at this point I can see Drake being dealt for breakout wide receivers like Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, etc. Drake could be a black hole, but I want the chance at an RB2 rather than a 50th WR3.

  • LeSean McCoy

See basically everything I said with Drake. He only got 8 touches Sunday, and he wasn’t super happy about it. I really don’t understand them getting away from their best skill position player so they can get Chris Ivory a little extra work.

Maybe it is wishful thinking, but I see a 20-touch game from McCoy coming in week 5.

  • Dion Lewis

I am not really trying to buy Henry anymore. The work and production just isn’t there, and unlike the previous two players, Henry has someone to fight for touches with in the backfield that might be better than him. That’s where the Lewis buy comes in.

  • Doug Baldwin

Baldwin missed just two weeks, and while it looks like he was eased into action on Sunday, he wasn’t given that low of a workload. Baldwin had 76% of the snaps and led the team in targets in his return.

The Seahawks offense has been terrible, and at the moment we still don’t know if it is just bad or if it was missing its top target in the passing game in Baldwin.

I am willing to throw darts at Baldwin hoping he can still be the borderline WR1-2 he was being drafted as while being able to get him at closer to WR2-3 value.

  • Keenan Allen

The Chargers offense has rolled pretty well, and Allen hasn’t done a lot. There are a lot of receivers, and running backs, vying for targets for the Chargers, but Allen will always be the top option assuming health. Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, Austin Ekeler are going to eat away from each other, not necessarily from Allen.

Take these few weeks as the handful of bad games in what will otherwise be a good season for Allen. They just happened to come in the beginning of the season. He has had a 26% target share to this point, basically the same as last season where he had a 27% target share.

  • James Conner

Late addition here, but Conner owners are likely trying to find a way out as they see an end date with the Bell news. While it is 100% possible Bell reports during the bye, read the report. Fowler interviewed Bell, but Bell never said he was coming back during the bye. That part of the report came from a source, not Bell himself. If he talked to Bell, it at least raises a flag that Bell wasn’t where that report came from.

Now Bell hasn’t come out and refuted the report that he is coming back during the bye; he had done that in the past with some other potential return dates so maybe all this concern is for nothing.

If I have Bell I am probably holding, but I have seen it discussed “Bell or insert first or second round guy here”, and many were taking Bell. I am taking the sure things of David Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Dalvin Cook, etc. over Bell.

SELL

  • Calvin Ridley –  Sell, sell, sell. He is still playing barely more than half of the snaps, running as the third receiver in the passing game.
  • Kerryon Johnson – Johnson looks like the best back in the backfield. But if you need something soon at 0-4 or 1-3, sell him for something you can use now. Johnson is still playing less than half of the teams snaps. Blount has a role, and Riddick is going to be the guy in passing situations.
  • Lamar Miller – He’s just not doing it, and while D’Onta Foreman is coming off a torn Achilles tendon, Foreman could be the lead back by the end of the season. His value is low now, but I would still be trying to ship him off.

 

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Andy Germani

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I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

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