START OR SIT: WEEK 4

START

QUARTERBACK

ELI MANNING, QB New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
19.4 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The New Orleans Saints have allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL this season to opposing quarterbacks (32.2 per game) and they will face off against the Giants this week. The Saints secondary has 2 defensive backs that currently rank in the Top-5 highest QB rating allowed in the NFL. Ken Crawley (158.3 QB Rating Allowed) will line up across from Cody Latimer, while Marshon Lattimore (146.5 QB Rating Allowed) will face off against Odell Beckham, Jr. Eli Manning should feast this week.

CASE KEENUM, QB Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
19.8 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is allowing 30.1 Fantasy Points per game and has allowed 1,127 yards to opposing QBs, which are both 2nd most in the NFL. The Chiefs secondary has been getting burned, and they have 2 defensive backs that are in the Top-7 highest QB Passer Rating allowed in the NFL (Steve Nelson 119.1 QB Rating, Kendall Fuller 101.6 Passer Rating) . They are currently ranked 14th in the NFL against slot receivers and 32nd in the league against pass catching running backs. Expect Emmanual Sanders to be busy in this one, and don’t be afraid to start Phillip Lindsay in your flex spot.

ANDY DALTON, QB Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
18.8 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Atlanta Falcons Defense is decimated, losing three of their defensive starters for the season and it’s only Week 4. They are currently giving up 25.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which is the 4th highest in the NFL. In that stretch, they have allowed 36 point to Cam Newton Week 2 and 45 fantasy points to Drew Brees Week 3. The Bengals offense is looking explosive and this should be a shootout. Start Dalton everywhere.

PHILLIP RIVERS, QB Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
23.5 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Richard Sherman has been targeted 6 times and allowed one reception for 18 yards. He will be inactive this Sunday against the Chargers. Other than Sherman, this secondary is terrible and is currently giving up 23.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which is 6th highest in the league. Keenan Allen has lined up in this slot on 58% of his snaps this season, where he has been targeted 11 times. The 49ers defense is ranked 26th in the NFL against slot receivers and Allen should be in for a bounce back effort after being double teamed for the majority of the game Week 3. Expect Rivers to be Top-3 in QB production this week.

RUNNING BACK

GIOVANI BERNARD, RB Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
12.6 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Falcons Defense is terrible against pass catching running backs, allowing 20 fantasy points to Christian McCaffrey in Week 2 and 26 fantasy points to Alvin Kamara in Week 3. On top of that, in 2017 they allowed the most targets (139)and receptions (110) against pass catching running backs and allowed the 4th most receiving yards (814). This is a dream matchup for Gio, who should be involved early and often.

ROYCE FREEMAN/PHILLIP LINDSAY, RB Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
10.7 / 10.8 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is allowing 29.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. On top of that, they have allowed 334 total receiving yards to running backs, which is the most in the NFL. They are currently ranked 32nd in the NFL against pass catching running backs. This matchup bodes well for both Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. Freeman should get the carries, while Lindsay should be heavily involved in the pass game. Don’t be afraid to throw Lindsay in your flex spot as he may be in for a big afternoon. Start them both.

CHRIS CARSON, RB Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
11.9 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Arizona Cardinals are giving up 32.6 Fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Seahawks have the ability to get ahead early in this one and may rely on the run to close the game out. Carson is coming off a 34 touch, 124 total yard, 1-TD performance in Week 3, so start him with confidence.

JORDAN HOWARD, RB Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11.9 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Bucs defense has been harassed this year, allowing 22.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is 6th most in the league. The Bears offensive line has only allowed 17 total pressures this season, which is 3rd best in the NFL. Jordan Howard has 11 targets in 3 games (3.6 targets per game) this season. He is also getting a heavy workload in the run game with 53 carries (17.6 attempts per game), which is 5TH most in the league. He could be in for a big day.

WIDE RECEIVER

JARVIS LANDRY, WR Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders
14.75 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Raiders are bad and are currently giving up 33.4 Fantasy points per game, which is the 4th most in the NFL. Landry has lined up in the slot on 73% of his snaps this season, and Oakland is currently ranked 28th against opposing slot receivers. Landry has been targeted 37 times in 3 games and is averaging 12.3 targets per game. He should have a big day against a porous Oakland secondary.

ALLEN ROBINSON, WR Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13.2 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Allen Robinson is the leader in air yards for this Bears offense and will go up against a Bucs defense that has been unable to stop anyone this season. He is averaging 9.3 targets per game and continues to be Mitchell Trubisky’s primary go to. Trubisky is still figuring out this offense and may continue to struggle this season, but the timing will come. This offensive line has only allowed 17 total pressures this season (3rd least in the NFL) and are currently the 2nd most efficient offensive line in the NFL. He should exceed his projected fantasy points this week.

EMMANUAL SANDERS, WR Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
13.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Kansas City Chiefs are currently allowing 26.9 fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers, which is 10th most in the league. The Chiefs secondary is currently ranked 14th against slot receivers and they really have not been able to stop anyone in the first 3 weeks. Sanders should be heavily involved in this one and should be a solid play this week.

TYLER BOYD, WR Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
10.9 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Tyler Boyd has lined up in the slot on 67% of his snaps this season. The Falcons Defense is currently ranked 31st against opposing slot receivers and their entire defense is banged up, with 3 of their starters out for the season. Boyd is a budding superstar in this league and should be busy in this one. Boyd is my favorite WR this week and I think he will exceed 100 total yards and 1 touchdown.

TIGHT END

TREY BURTON, TE Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8.9 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Bucs defense is allowing 13.0 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. This Bears offensive line is very good and allowing Trubisky additional time in the pocket. While Burton is not being featured in this offense, I think he will eventually begin to see more targets and become more active in this pass attack. Start him against the Bucs.

TRAVIS KELCE, TE Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
12.6 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Kelce is a Top-3 tight end every week, but hasn’t really gotten started yet this season. The Denver Broncos do not play opposing tight ends well, allowing 9.9 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Kelce is seeing 8.6 targets per game this season, and that number is bound to increase in the coming weeks. Start him with confidence, but you were starting him anyway.

ERIC EBRON, TE Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
10.2 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Indianapolis Colt’s new head Coach, Frank Reich has a track record of getting production out of the tight end position. Frank Reich’s last three stops as offensive coordinator:

⦁ 2015 (LAC): 161 Targets to the Tight End (3rd)
⦁ 2016 (PHI): 185 Targets to the Tight End (1st)
⦁ 2017 (PHI): 165 Targets to the Tight End (2nd)

Ebron continues to see a lot of red zone targets and should be busy in this one. The Texans defense is allowing 9.9 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and this may be Ebron’s coming out party, if he can reduce the dropped balls. Start him.

SIT

QUARTERBACKS

DEREK CARR, QB Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
17.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Oakland Raiders offense is currently in shambles and Derek Carr may be the problem. The Cleveland Browns are allowing 9.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is the best mark in the NFL. Don’t expect Carr to turn it around this week. Sit him if you can.

TOM BRADY, QB New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
22.8 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

This is an unpopular take, but the Miami secondary is good, very good. They are currently allowing 10.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is 3rd best in the NFL. They are currently allowing 18.6 fantasy points per game to opposing Wide Receivers, which is 8th best in the league. In 2017, they allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points per game (16.8 point per game) to opposing Wide Receivers. Xavien Howard is allowing a 32.2 passer rating to opposing QBs, which is 1st in the NFL among defensive backs lining up in coverage on 80% of their defensive snaps. Bobby McClain is currently allowing an 87.8 Passer Rating to opposing QBs, which is 7th best in the NFL among defensive backs. I know this is a redemption game for Brady, but I don’t see him being elite this season. I would sit him if you can.

BLAKE BORTLES, QB Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
19.1 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Is anyone else tired of this Blake Bortles roller coaster ride?

  • Week 1: 18 Fantasy Points
  • Week 2: 43 Fantasy Points
  • Week 3: 8 Fantasy Points

Is it evident that Bortles is more productive when Fournette is inactive, but Fournette is expected to give it a go this week, which will hurt Bortles production. Don’t start him anywhere, ever again.

RUNNING BACK

JAY AJAYI / COREY CLEMENT, RB Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
8.7 / 7.25 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Titans are very good against the run, allowing 11.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is the 3rd best mark in the NFL. Ajayi has a fracture in his back and will play through the pain, while Clement was unable to get anything done last week against a solid Colts defense. Don’t expect these 2 to find any running room this week. Sit them if you can

PEYTON BARBER, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
7.2 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Barber continues to see good volume, accumulating 44 total touches through week 3, which ranks in the top 20 in the NFL. However, he has been unable to do anything productive with these touches, accumulating 14 total fantasy points, or 0.32 fantasy points per touch. Paired with a below average offensive line, it is only a matter of time before they look to the rookie Ronald Jones. Avoid him until further notice.

JAMES CONNER, RB Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
14.6 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

James Connor fired right out of the gate Week 1 with a 36 touch effort (42 Fantasy Points), but has since come back down to earth with a 13 touch effort in Week 2 (19 Fantasy Points) and a 20 touches in Week 3 (16 Fantasy Points). While the volume will continue to be there for Connor in this explosive Steelers offense, his stock is declining. The Ravens are giving up 12.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is the 5th best mark in the league this season. They are also only allowing 56 total receiving yards to opposing running backs, which is 2nd best in the league. They may be able to shut him down this week, so sit Conner if you can.

WIDE RECEIVER

GOLDEN TATE / MARVIN JONES, WR Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
10.7 / 9.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Dallas Cowboys are allowing 15.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, which is 2nd best in the NFL. They have also only allowed 327 total receiving yards, which is the 3rd best mark in the NFL. With the Lions struggling offensively, I wouldn’t recommend starting either wide out this week.

TYLER LOCKETT, WR Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
8.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Arizona Cardinals secondary is allowing 16.3 total fantasy points per game this season to opposing wide receivers, which is the 4th best mark in the league. With the Seahawks offense struggling under a new offensive coordinator and the offensive line not giving Russell Wilson any time in the pocket, it will be hard for Lockett to get open in this one. Avoid him.

DAVANTE ADAMS, WR Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
14.1 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Bills are a bad team, but their defense is considered respectable. The Bills secondary has only allowed 442 total receiving yards to opposing wide outs this season, which is 9th in the NFL. Davante Adams will line up across from Tre’Davious White this week. White has been targeted 9 times this season and has only allowed 5 catches for 29 yards and a 61.8 QB Rating. He is an elite cover corner and having an All Pro season. I’m sitting him Adams in all leagues where I own him.

TIGHT END

ZACH ERTZ, TE Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
12.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Zach Ertz has been targeted 33 times this season, or 11 times per game, which is 1st among all tight ends this season. The Titans defense is currently allowing 2.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, which is the best in the league. They have also only allowed 69 total receiving yards, 3rd best in the NFL and have not yet allowed a TD to an opposing TE. I know you invested early draft capital in Ertz, but you may need to sit him this week.

JARED COOK, TE Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
7.0 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Cleveland Browns are only allowing 3.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, which is the 4th best mark in the NFL. They have also only allowed 97 total receiving yards, which is 5th best in the NFL and have yet to allow a TD. Cook’s stock is declining and I would recommend sitting him this week.

JESSE JAMES, TE Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
4.5 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Baltimore Ravens Defense is only allowing 4.5 fantasy points per game to opposing Tight Ends this season, which is the 7th least in the league this season. Jesse James is not considered a focal point of this offense and has only seen 11 total targets this season, or 3.6 targets per game. His 23 point Week 2 total appears to be the exception and not the rule, as the Tight End is historically not a featured position in this offense. I would avoid him this week if you can and lower your season long expectations for him. He appears to be more a blocking tight end.

 

Fantasy Rundown BannerVisit Fantasy Rundown for additional start/sit and weekly ranking articles.

Matt Bishop

Written by 

Matt Bishop is a graduate of Rider University and currently works as a Project Manager for an Electrical Supply Distributor. He lives in North NJ with his wife and 2 children and is a die-hard Philadelphia Eagles and Philadelphia Phillies fan. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1997 and Fantasy Baseball since 2003. He recently discovered Fangraphs and his obsession for baseball metrics and how they can be used to draft a championship caliber team.

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.