NFL Buy and Sell: Week 3

Through three weeks I am on both sides of the spectrum. I have leagues where I am 3-0 and hunting for buy-low targets from struggling owners. Then I have a league where I am 0-3 and I am that struggling owner. All I can do is preach patience, but I know how it feels.

You want to do anything to turn it around in a hurry. Dump that underperforming first or second round pick and get someone who is producing. If you do it just make sure you are getting what you should get.

Every 0-3 is different, you could be 0-3 and have bad luck opponents or you can be 0-3 and in the bottom few in scoring. If you are struggling you need a home run as much as you need the base hits to use a baseball analogy. I have David Johnson in my 0-3 league, but I had a lot of misses in that league. Johnson, Baldwin, McCoy, Fitzgerald. My only real investment that I have had any luck with is Ertz.

Holding David Johnson and riding out the RB2/3 type production and hoping the top-5 overall player production comes – that is going to be a better option for me than trading him for a combination of Kenny Golladay and James White. Where if you look around at some trade values on other sites, they would say that is a trade you should do.

That being said: I am absolutely shopping all of my players. I need a change. I am trying to buy-high on players I think are in a better situation than they were preseason that I think can keep the production up. Guys like Will Fuller and Carlos Hyde where owners think they are selling high, but I think what they have done to this point is closer to what their rest of season value is than what they would fetch in a trade.

BUY

  • David Johnson

Just so you know, yes, I am still buying. The price keeps tumbling, and I will keep trying to buy. I only own him in one league, but I am attempting to own him in all of my leagues. The panic has still led to an average of 10 points per game in standard and 13.3 in PPR.

  • Kenyan Drake

He is here again. The Drake owner is likely, understandably, annoyed with his production to this point. It is easy to point to his workload last week as he had just five carries and two catches. The thing is, the Dolphins only had 44 offensive snaps. Big plays limited Drake’s ability to get the ball even though he played on two-thirds of the snaps.

I have seen Drake be bumped to borderline flex play.

He gets a nice matchup this week against the Patriots. This is kind of the make or break week. If nothing happens here again I might not be trying to buy next week, or he has a nice day in a good matchup and the window to buy slams shut.

  • Derrick Henry

He is currently sitting at RB27 in Fantasy Pros ECR. I understand the production hasn’t been great, but Henry has gotten 18 carries in two straight games while being quarterbacked by Gabbert and an injured Mariota.

He did have a long touchdown run called back by penalty earlier this year. If that play holds there isn’t a ton of concern about Henry right now. The fact that you can get Henry at RB3 level value right now screams buy.

  • Dion Lewis

While you are out there buying Derrick Henry, take a look at his backfield mate Dion Lewis. Now I don’t want both; I would prefer Lewis if given an option, but I do think both are solid fantasy options.

Lewis has always been an underrated back. He can do things that guys his size don’t typically do, and he obviously has the pass catching ability as well. Lewis doesn’t really ever get game scripted out. He can be used as a let game runner or as a pass catcher when the team is trailing, although with Henry as his backfield partner he may not grind out the clock too often.

His targets will give him a solid floor, and he always has the upside for a little more.

  • Antonio Brown

I think there is far too much concern for Brown right now. Has he been THE WR1? No, but he doesn’t have to be.

Without James Conner the Steelers have run 139 pass plays to 70 runs, passing on two-thirds of their plays compared to 57% last season and 59% in 2016. The pass heavy offense of 2018 even includes the week 1 game against the Browns in the rain where they passed 41 times and ran 35.

Now shouldn’t all of this turn you off of Brown a bit? He hasn’t done much and they are obviously favoring the pass.

I take this as a few unlucky weeks. He was never going to get 100 and a touchdown every week. I have already seen outlets talk about him no longer being the top receiver in fantasy, and even asking the questions “would you take Brown or…” that goes 5-6 names deep.

You won’t be able to buy him for pennies on the dollar, but you might be able to get him at top 10-15 type player value instead of top-5.

  • Corey Davis

His target share, through three weeks of terrible quarterback play, is 30 percent. It feels like the Corey Davis has so much upside argument has been out there forever even though this is just his second season.

Marcus Mariota has issues throwing the ball right now, and that might mean Davis loses some of his down the field targets limiting that upside, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Davis is on someone’s cut candidates list as they look through waivers next week.

SELL

  • James Conner – As I said with Brown, the Steelers are passing a ton. Outside of the week one game against the Browns, Conner has done little on the ground. I am willing to bet someone out there has Conner as a top-20 player. I would sell now if I could.
  • Adrian Peterson – Guys that are game script dependent suck to own. As much as we think we can guess when a team will win or lose, it isn’t that easy.
  • Marshawn Lynch – If it wasn’t for the touchdowns he would be one of those guys you would consider cutting in 10 team leagues. He is the goal to go guy, but if they get behind they have proven it’s Richard.
  • Royce Freeman – Still has some upside, but it doesn’t look like they want to give him the backfield. TD or bust on a weekly basis.

 

Fantasy Rundown BannerLooking for additional buy/sell trade advice or waiver wire pick-ups, head on over to Fantasy Rundown.

Andy Germani

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I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

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