I don’t like the blanket statements of ” Go get this prospect – Don’t get that prospect”. Prospect lists are even misleading. Every little thing matters. Upside, downside, expectation, eta, etc.
Each league matters too. No need to go out and buy or add prospects with little upside in a shallow league. A player turning into a top-10 third baseman is a big deal in a 15 team roto league, but in a 10 team points format… not so much.
Below are prospects I would buy in different types of leagues. In the 50 or less leagues I am mostly going for upside. The deeper the prospect pool the more safety matters, until the point where there is no such thing as safety and the only thing you can hope on is upside.
50 or less
Fernando Tatis Jr.: Vlad is going to be the big guy everyone is going to want in dynasty leagues. While the other Jr. should be fetching nearly the same price, he will likely be cheaper.
Nick Senzel: Senzel missing the rest of 2018 is good news for people trying to get him in dynasty leagues while in sell mode. Expected at the start of the season to provide 2018 value, Senzel will likely be sitting in the same spot next year – people waiting for in season value but likely having to wait until midseason.
Unlike Tatis Jr. I don’t think there is fantasy superstar here for Senzel. He won’t be a fantasy savior or anything, but a year in year out early round pick.
Victor Robles: Another injury could help you land a prospect that easily could have been in the top-2 had he been healthy, assuming he didn’t exhaust his prospect eligibility as a call up. Robles has fantasy superstar upside and his injury should help bump his cost down.
Taylor Trammell: I had trouble deciding if I wanted Trammell (and the next guy) as top-50 buys or top-100. Trammell’s power speed combination makes him a roto/categories top-50 type bye for me. In points he’s more of a top-100 buy. Either way, Trammell has big upside as he can provide all around production.
Jo Adell: Another power speed threat, Adell’s power could play up even more than it has in the minors where he has hit for a somewhat surprising 17 homers already.
100 or less
Luis Robert: Robert has shown why there was so much fanfare around his signing. He is still far enough away that he might be cheap even though he is fairly high on prospect lists. Just keep in mind you are going to have to wait maybe another three years.
Keston Hiura: Similar to Senzel, Hiura doesn’t have superstar upside, but he should be a great fantasy producer. Senzel is closer and I am more confident in his ability to hit right now than Hiura which is why Hiura is just a top-100 buy.
Peters power has played this year, but his strikeout rate has been terrible. He is a deep buy in the hopes that he can get back to his preseason hype that he was starting to build.
Oneil Cruz: Cruz has kept the strikeout rate relatively low this year, which was a problem in past seasons. The power potential for the 19-year-old shortstop might be a little more hope than real possibility, but at 6’6” 175 I can’t help but hope there will be more power as he climbs the ladder.
Josh James, Cristian Javier, Jose Suarez, Zac Lowther: All of these guys are just putting up great minor league numbers. Lowther and Suarez are the biggest names here, and not all that big. Strikeouts like homers feel like something that will increase as guys get closer to the majors and approaches change. When guys are already doing crazy strikeout things in the minors while keeping the walks relatively in check it is hard to not get a little excited, regardless of what their stuff says they should be doing.