Fantasy Stock Watch – Week 14

I hope you were able to enjoy a relaxing Fourth of July holiday with friends, family or with complete strangers surrounding you at a baseball game (like me). As we push closer towards the All-Star Break, keep up on who is streaking towards the break and who really needs a week off with the latest edition of the stock watch.

As always, if you have a player you would like profiled or have a question about, feel free to post in the comment section or reach out to me on Twitter @hedenson18 with that or any other questions.

Stock Up

Brad Miller

Since coming over to the Brew Crew from Tampa, Miller has been sneakily productive, slashing .343/.410/.600 over the past two weeks with two slams. He has scorched the ball lately, posting a 63.6% Hard% over the past two weeks (70.6% Hard% over the past week) and has posted a strong 22.7% LD%; 36.4% GB%; 40.9% FB% batted ball profile as well.

I really like some of the changes we are seeing so far in Miller for 2018. He is posting the lowest GB% of his career (35.2%) so far on the season, which has greatly benefitted his LD% (21.1%) and FB% (43.8) as well. Despite this, some of the old issues that have plagued Miller in the past still hold. He is striking out at a very high rate (30%) so far and has seen his O-Swing% and SwStr% rise on the season as well.

His BABIP lately (.500) and on the season (.369) are unsustainable, and he will see a bit of a dip there as the season progresses, though his improved LD% and solid Soft% and Med% contact rates should help him a bit. Overall though, Miller is an interesting player to add if you need some MI help. His expected production levels (.243XBA; .339 XOBA; .474 XSLG) mostly support his current line of production, and at a 20% ownership rate he could be a bargain the rest of the way due to his power and positional flexibility.

Ryan Borucki

Borucki has done well in his first two MLB outings, posting 2 quality starts including a 7IP, 2ER, 8K outing this week against Detroit. Advanced metrics are pretty favorable in comparison to his 2.77 ERA (2.33 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 4.05 SIERA) and despite an average K/9 (7.69) in his first two outings, he is generating an above average O-Swing% (36.6%) so far.

Obviously we do not have a lot to go on at the major league level for Borucki, but in the minors he typically struck out batters at an above-average rate and limited walks at most levels, though his first extended stretch in AAA saw mixed results in those respects over 77.1 IP (6.78 K/9; 3.27 BB/9).

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs wrote a bit about Borucki when he mentioned prospects of note outside the Top 17 for the Blue Jays, noting that he could be a back-end rotation piece if healthy. While his MLB sample size is very small, Borucki will get starts for Toronto, and is an arm to watch if you need reinforcements. He is currently owned in 19% of leagues and is widely available.

Tyler Anderson

And here is where the readers start to run…when I start listing Coors pitchers positively in the stock watch. Despite that Anderson spends a good bit of his time pitching in one of the worst environments in the league, he has been on fire lately, posting a glittering 1.64 ERA over 22 IP (3 starts). During this streak Anderson has been making batters miss, posting a 14.8% SwStr% while sitting down 30.9% of those he has faced.

He has continued to limit walks during these starts (2.05 BB/9) and while his LOB% has been above league average (84.3%) advanced metrics still feel good about his performance (1.64 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 3.00xFIP, 2.98 SIERA). Anderson has been solid on the season so far, posting a solid 3.90 ERA with slightly above average strikeout marks as well (8.32 K/9).

Anderson is currently owned in 46% of leagues and could be a useful arm to add if you are in need. And if you are terrified of adding a Rockies pitcher, just know that two of his last three starts have been at Coors, and while he has pitched better on the road (like almost all Rockies) his splits aren’t too extreme (4.37 ERA on the Road; 3.48 ERA at Home).

Stock Down

Zack Godley

Godley did not have it on Sunday, looking very mortal in an abbreviated 4IP outing that saw him walk five batters and get torched for seven runs in the process. Take a look at Godley’s past three starts:

Date Opp IP H R ER BB SO
7/1/2018 SFG 4 9 7 7 5 5
6/26/2018 @MIA 5 6 2 2 4 4
6/21/2018 @PIT 6 4 3 2 3 5

While his other starts during this period haven’t resulted in as many earned runs as his disastrous one on Sunday, the one thing that really sticks out to me are his walks. Godley has posted a 7.20 BB/9 in his last three starts, continuing a troubling trend this season. In 2017, Godley walked 8.5% of batters faced and was able to work through some of that due to his above-average strikeout rate (9.58 K/9).

So far in 2018, however, his walk rate has ballooned, seeing him issue free passes to 11.9% of batters. A drop in strikeouts isn’t helping, as both Godley’s K% (26.3% in 2017, 21.9% in 2018) and chase statistics are down (13.3% SwStr% in 2017, 10.9% SwStr% in 2018) (33.1% O-Swing% in 2017, 28.3% O-Swing% in 2018). Advanced looks at his 5.07 ERA are slightly more promising (4.62 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 4.46 SIERA) but that control is worrisome.

Dee Gordon

“Flash” Gordon hasn’t been lighting it up too much lately, posting a meager .224/.250/.241 line over the past two weeks with 3 steals. His BABIP (.265) over this period is a bit low, though some of that can be contributed to a lower LD% (19.1%) and increased GB% (61.7%) during this stretch.

Never one to take a walk, Gordon’s allergy to free passes has only increased this season, seeing him post a miniscule 1.7% BB% on the year, though that rate has slightly increased lately to 3.2% which is much closer to what he posted in 2017.

While Gordon has kept up his thieving ways in 2018 with 22 steals, he has seen a bit of a drop in his Spd score, both on the season (6.7 Spd in 2018, 8.5 Spd in 2017) and over the past two weeks (6.0 Spd).

Hunter Denson

Written by 

Fantasy baseball enthusiast, Boston Red Sox fan and general lover of baseball living in the Pacific Northwest. More likely to remember Mel Ott's career HR number than my pin number. Married to an amazing woman who supports and encourages my baseball mania.