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Buy Low/Sell High: Byes aren’t over

It is weird to even think, but we are now about two-thirds of the way through the fantasy regular season if you play through week 13.

If you are able to avoid the killer bye week part two without too much damage it might be time to prepare that bench for the stretch run.

That means pairing up extra bench pieces to make the starting lineup better. Even if it requires having a relative hole at one roster spot to play matchups with. Play matchups with your WR3 if it means you added Leonard Fournette. Don’t be afraid to trade two great assets for an elite one.

If you have a question specific to a player or situation feel free to ask in the comment section below and I will do my best to help you out. You can also reach me on twitter –

BUY LOW

WR: Stefon Diggs

You could have bought a lot lower if you bought while he was hurt, but coming off an injury to post a four catch for 27 yard game against the Browns still makes him a buy low.

Theilen had the big game which might make it even easier to buy Diggs if people think he lost the role as the top option.

Teddy Bridgewater is rumored to possibly be back after the bye, which could help lower the price even more. Case Keenum has been a perfectly acceptable fill in, but Bridgewater would still be an upgrade for the receivers.

With the Vikings headed for a bye week it also provides a nice buy low opportunity if you can afford to be without him for a week.

RB: Devonta Freeman

The offense is in one heck of a funk. Freeman hasn’t topped 12 carries in the last three weeks, and he also hasn’t topped 90 yards or scored a touchdown. After a strong start to the year Freeman is getting the ball less coming out of the early bye.

When owners drafted Freeman they shouldn’t have been expecting a true workhorse back that was going to get 20 plus touches per week because Tevin Coleman was going to have a role, but I think the expectation was to get 18 plus more often than not.

The downside to buying is the Falcons have a tough rest of season schedule for running backs, and like I just said, he has to split work. However, Freeman is a special player and isn’t one I tend to worry about when it comes to matchups – the good news too is that he has already passed his bye week.

RB: Jay Ajayi

This is a tough buy, and the one I believe in the least. There are a lot of problems with the Miami offense and the team is just bad right now. Ajayi was a product of a good line last year, but a good line isn’t the only reason he performed.

Ajayi was called out by Gase and that could go either way in terms of what he will do for the rest of season, I really don’t think it changes anything, but I think some people will try to spin it some way.

Ajayi can probably be had as a mid to low-end RB2 with how much he has struggled to this point. The good news is he still ranks highly in yards created and evaded tackles. Game script needs to go his way, and I think he can turn it around in the second half.



SELL HIGH

RB: Melvin Gordon

Rumors of the turf toe scare me. Gordon is also heading for a bye week so that might depress his value.

Watching the long touchdown run Sunday, it seemed like something was bothering him as he was headed down the field as his strides didn’t appear normal.

There is risk with Gordon because he is going to get just about all the work. He got 15 touches compared to six combined for the other backs.

RB: Mark Ingram

I honestly can’t believe he ended up with 24 touches in a game where he fumbled twice.

Payton has shown before he will get irrational when it comes to fumbles, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Saints came out next week and Kamara led the way – heck, Ingram got benched for Tim Hightower last year.

I still like Ingram the player and he is in a nice spot. If he keeps the role he has now he is probably a top-15 back rest of season so I would only sell if you can get roughly top-15 running back value.

Buy/Hold

RB: Joe Mixon

I have been saying buy low for weeks, but at some point he needs to do something or be allowed to take over the backfield. Mixon had a team high 14 touches and 109 total yards, but most came on a big catch (he only had 18 yards on 11 carries).

He falls into the both category this week. I still think he is a mid to low-end RB2 rest of season. He still has some nice elusive ratings and we know the big play ability is there, but I get more concerned about it every week he doesn’t breakout.

The selling side of this is if someone is willing to buy in as a higher end RB2 or you can sell him to a desperate owner next week.

If anything Mixon is basically a hold for me, leaning towards buy – I just am not nearly as excited as I was several weeks ago.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
Andy Germani

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7 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High: Byes aren’t over

  1. Should I be worried about Keenan Allen? His targets are going down.

    • He has been keeping basically the same target share all year, basically around 26% give or take. This week was the first time he really dipped in target share even though total targets have trended down.

      The concern now is there are a lot of mouths to feed. I just wouldnt worry about Allen that much. I would be more concerned about everyone after him, Williams, Benjamin, Henry, etc. getting targets.

      I havent seen the game film but I wouldnt be surprised if this weeks huge dip in target share was because the Pats tried to take him away. He actually might be a decent buy low right now.

  2. So Here is my Team Should I try to make any trades?
    Half PPR 10 Teams
    QB: Wentz,Mariota and Winston
    RB: Freeman,Coleman,Gordon and Mccoy
    WR: Hopkins,K.Allen,Cooks, Diggs, Funchess and Ginn
    TE: Kelce
    K: Bryant
    Def: Broncos

    • Team looks pretty good. When your week point is which WR2 to start out of Allen/Cooks/Diggs you are pretty set.

      If you want to try to package 2-3 of that group for an upgrade that would be the only thing to do. Or maybe 1-2 of them plus Mariota or Winston

  3. Trade Diggs and Keenan Allen for M.Thomas or J.Jones?
    Or should I stand pat? Half PPR 10 Teams
    My Team:
    QB: Wentz and Mariota
    RB: Freeman,Coleman,Gordon and Mccoy
    WR: Hopkins,K.Allen,Cooks, Diggs, Funchess and C.Davis
    TE: Kelce and Doyle
    K: Bryant
    Def: Broncos

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