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Buy Low Sell High: Another Star Goes Down

The NFL can be brutal sometimes.

We again lost the privilege of watching one of the best players in the world play when Rodgers was likely lost for the season with a broken collarbone.

This year you could argue the top QB (Rodgers), RB (Johnson), WR (Beckham), defensive player (Watt) all are on the IR.

It sucks for the fans, obviously the players, and especially for those that own them in fantasy.

So why does this matter to anything in the trading world?

Injuries almost force trades to happen. You now have a glaring hole where you used to have a stud. Maybe now you have to fill that void because you don’t have bench depth that you can rely on every week.

In the case of Rodgers, outside of a two QB league I wouldn’t go making any panic deals. I would rather venture the waiver wire and try to make do with streaming options. You won’t replace his production no matter what so there is no need to hurt your team in two spots.

Guys like Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers, etc.., are on the wire and can get you by on a weekly basis. Then you can target the streamers if they have good matchups. Downgrading at running back or receiver just so you can start Kirk Cousins over Rivers isn’t really worth it when it comes down to it.

Trade value for quarterbacks is and should be low. If someone is willing to basically give away their second quarterback then do it. But I wouldn’t do a deal that requires you to give up an every week starter to get a replacement for Rodgers.




If you have a question specific to a player or situation feel free to ask in the comment section below and I will do my best to help you out. You can also reach me on twitter –

BUY LOW

WR: Julio Jones

It is insane how little he has been used this year. Shockingly it has led to some struggles for Matt Ryan.

Julio is one of the most talented players in the NFL. Trust me, there will be good games – there will be huge absurd blowup games.

Yea, if I owned him I would be sick of the 7-8 points he seems to be getting every week because he hasn’t been scoring. That doesn’t mean I would trade him, but someone else might.

Someone might buy into some crazy concerns with him and try to unload him thinking the value might go lower somehow. Maybe they believe the injury he left with before the bye is serious, I don’t know. What I do know is you should be buying.

WR: Michael Thomas

I feel like some owners out there will be thinking “The Saints scored 52 points and Thomas only had 11 yards”. The Saints only threw 31 times (three defensive touchdowns will lower the total plays), and of the 31 attempts Thomas still had six targets.

There really isn’t much to worry about here. There is a good chance the Thomas owner isn’t panicking, but if they are go for it.

RB: Kareem Hunt

I can’t picture anyone actually selling low on Hunt. I am putting him here just in case someone might try to sell. There are always people who are going to panic about the rookie wall.

Hunt has only scored 11-12 points in the last three weeks. I really can’t give too much of an argument as to how you buy low. However, buying low doesn’t always mean dirt cheap either.

For Hunt, he goes basically from “haha, yea – I am not trading him” to a player someone might actually consider moving. I don’t think those who were valuing him over Bell would still be doing so after today.

RB: Latavius Murray

Hear me out here. I think Murray’s owners that paid up for him in FAAB or burned a claim are ready to just drop him. Murray struggled, and was again out-touched by McKinnon, but he still got 16 touches.

I think he will always have some role in the offense. McKinnon is just too small and takes too many unnecessary hits that at some point is going to have him on the sidelines.

Murray isn’t startable anytime soon. You would be offering a low bench piece to just add him to your bench and see what happens. It could pay off in the long-run.

SELL HIGH

RB: Christian McCaffery

I have been a McCaffery fantasy hater for a while. He is a great talent that can do some crazy thing in the open field. That is the key though – in the open field.

McCaffery still hasn’t shown the ability to be a between the tackles runner.

If he is going to have success it is going to be in these types of games. Trailing and just being on the field for a lot of the second half and getting check down work.

I don’t know if there will be a better time to sell than right now as McCaffery had his big game on one of the stand alone games so many saw it.

I think if you change his name to Duke Johnson you end up with similar results, just not the sexy name value that McCaffery has.

Any Packer

If you have a Packer and can sell for even close to what their value is I would do it. The offense is about to spiral downwards. Jordy likely falls to a WR2, Adams to a flex, and Cobb not startable.

The running backs were valuable as Aaron Rodgers caddy. They wont have as many scoring opportunities, and the offense likely won’t move well without Rodgers, so I can see them being in a lot of favorable opportunities.

WR: Will Fuller

The touchdown production is unbelievably unsustainable. Fuller is a deep threat so he will have his big games, but he now has eight catches for 154 yards and five touchdowns in three games.

Fuller is more of a flex during bye weeks than an every week starter to me. I think a lot of people will start valuing him as a WR2/3.

The hard sell on Fuller is that he is heading into his bye week. On the plus side – this gives you two weeks to shop him around.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
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12 comments on “Buy Low Sell High: Another Star Goes Down

  1. So there is an owner that has both Thomas and Jones, could you please look At both rosters and tell me if there is a trade I should make or stand pat? Thank you for all your help!

    Her team:
    QB: Stafford and Carr
    RB: C.Anderson,T.Montgomery, D.Johnson and L.Miller
    WR: J.Jones, M. Thomas, T.Hill, D.moncrief, J. Kearse and M. Crabtree, TE: Ertz and Hooper K:Crosby Def: KC

    My Team:
    QB: Mariota, Wentz and Rivers
    RB: McCoy, Gordon, Coleman and Freeman
    WR: Hopkins, Diggs, Cooks, Cooper, Wallace, and Funchess TE: Kelce K: Bryant Def: Denver

  2. They need a RB but I might rather have your big 3 over Julio. McCoy would be a toss up between him and Julio.

    I wouldnt be surprised if you could do Hopkins for Julio. It is weird that I even feel hesitation saying to offer it.

    But if we were drafting again today I would still take Julio higher, although it isnt as easy as it was before.

    Other than that nothing jumps out at me. Your RBs are so good I wouldnt want to part with any of them.

    • Yeah I’d rather keep my big 3, If Diggs was healthy I’d offer them Diggs and Funchess and see what happens but I hope Diggs gets healthy soon. That trade I made Evan Engram for Cooper, didnt make me feel to good last night, was it still a good deal?

      • Ya it is still fine. You would never start Engram outside of a bye week. Cooper still has the ability to be a WR1.

        Broncos are typically susceptible to TE production because their corners are so good teams try to beat them elsewhere. Engram is probably a borderline top-10 TE rest of season but that doesnt do you any good when you have Kelce

  3. I’m in a 12 team .5 ppr league. I’m 6-0 and my team is as follows (due to our keeper rules for this auction league my potential keeper is either Fournette for $43, Hunt for $34 or Ertz for $6):
    QB D. Watson, RB Hunt, RB Fournette, WR AJ Green, WR B. Cooks, WR Smith Schuster
    TE Ertz, FLEX James White, Def Min, K Bailey
    BE D. Foreman, BE Doctson, BE Breida, BE Hundley as QB for this week, BE Corey Davis, BE Dion Lewis, BE Ivory, IR Andrew Luck
    I was offered Bell and Gronk for Fournette, Ertz and Cooks. Is this a worthwhile deal? (what if he insists on swapping mariotta for watson as part of the deal?)

    • How do keeper costs escalate and what is the budget?

      • Budget is $100 and they escalate as follows: +$5 for 1st yr, +5 and +10% for 2nd year and same increase in 3rd. Then you lose keeper.

        • I assume not mentioning Bell and Gronk values means they aren’t keepable? That makes a difference in the deal. Or if you deal Fournette, Ertz, Cooks who becomes your keepable players?

          When doing strictly keeper values I look at redraft value and evaluate it first. Then I take the cost into account and unless it is something crazy different like, having Hunt at under $10 as a random example off the top of my head, I stick to my original evaluation.

          • You can only keep players you drafted.

          • You can only keeps players that you actually drafted, so realistically that would be Hunt only (for $34), Foreman for $6 if things clear up for him, or Luck for $9.

            I think the deal can be slightly varied to be:

            (1) Bell and Gronk for Fournette, Ertz and Cooks, or
            (2) Bell, Gronk, Golden Tate and Mariotta for Fournette, Ertz, Cooks and Deshaun Watson.

            Are any of these good deals or should I stand pat?

          • Was literally just typing my response when I got the new comment email notification.

            I keep going back and forth on this deal.

            One could argue Fournette and Bell arent much different so if you cancel those out, even though I would take Bell, you are left with Ertz and Cooks for Gronk with is a pretty even deal.

            I think I am going to say no because you would get a downgrade at receiver that isn’t worth the upgrade you are getting at RB and TE

  4. You can only keep players you drafted.

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