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Minor League Report: Pitching Prospects

As I started compiling names this week for people in consideration, I noticed I was really pitcher heavy. So why not just do an all pitcher version this week.

No one loves investing in pitching prospects. There is so much risk, and even when they do make it to the majors they are valued less than hitters.

For me, I never want a middling pitching prospect. I want someone completely off the radar that I can get for nothing more than a waiver claim or a throw in on a trade, or I want the cream of the crop. But if I do get the cream of the crop, I am likely not paying top of the line price, I wait for the price to dip or the owner to make a panic deal.

Stay tuned for next week when I will unveil my midseason prospect list.

As usual if you have any questions on anything fantasy baseball, feel free to ask about them in the comment section below or on Twitter

All stats are through Sunday July 2.

Redraft Radar

  • Yoan Moncada 2B/3B – White Sox 
  • Amed Rosario SS – Mets
  • Chance Adams P – Yankees
  • Willie Calhoun 2B – Dodgers

I have continued to leave Rosario here, but never really touted him as a guy I want to add in a redraft. I will, and have, let other people in my leagues add and stash him for a while burning the bench spot. Keep an eye on him if he does get the call, but don’t burn a bench spot.




Who’s hot

Tyler Glasnow

  • MLB: 54 1/3 IP, 7.45 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, K: 50 (18.9%), BB: 29 (10.9%)
  • Since demotion (4 starts): 23 2/3 IP, 1.90 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, K: 42 (44.2%), BB: 13 (13.7%)

Here is a prime example of a “cream of the crop” type guy that has dipped in value.

Glasnow has some serious issues he needs to fix before he can be trusted as a major league starter. He has proven time and time again he can pitch well in AAA while pitching around walks, the test is harnessing the control.

I haven’t given up hope on him yet as he is just 23, but he has dropped for me. He has exceeded his rookie limits so he won’t appear on a list because of that, but if he was eligible I would probably still have him in the 30-50 range. He has failed at the major league level in a short amount of time. For many, they get the 77 2/3 innings of struggling in the majors and immediately drop him for someone who hasn’t failed yet.

Sure Mitch Keller hasn’t struggled in the majors, because he isn’t there yet. How do we know Keller won’t get to the majors and struggle in limited innings? Glasnow didn’t struggle at the lower levels either, so we hold a handful of major league innings against him compared to someone who doesn’t have an inning pitching at AA. The players that have yet to struggle get so much more love than the guys that played at a higher level and struggled in a small sample.

I think this is a buying opportunity as I would expect the Glasnow owner to try to get anything because of how he performed in the majors the last two seasons.

Dillon Tate

  • 2017: 18 1/3 IP, 1.47 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, K: 21 (30.9%), BB: 3 (4.4%)

Tate was the fourth overall pick in 2015 by the Rangers before being dealt to the Yankees last season.

Because he was a dominant reliever for a year in college, many thought that was a pretty reasonable assumption that he would at some point be a bullpen arm in the majors. He also is a smaller pitcher so there might be risks of staying healthy as a starter.

Tate has not moved fast, especially for a college arm. At 23 he is in his first season at high-A. His struggles in 2016 ultimately hurt his chances to move quickly, as a normal timeline would have likely had him pitching at two levels last season.

Tate has come out of the gate pretty well this season with a nice strikeout rate and limiting baserunners. He is mostly fastball slider, but also has a solid changeup. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and can get into the upper 90s on occasion.

Tate is a nice deep league prospect target that you might be able to get pretty cheap. If things don’t work out as a starter he might be able to make it as a reliever.

The Yankees got Tate as part of a sell trade last season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they use him to buy something this July.

Eric Lauer

  • 2017 (A+ – AA): 75 1/3 IP, 2.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, K: 93 (29.7%), BB: 19 (6.1%)
  • Last 3 starts: 17 2/3 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, K: 23 (31.5%), BB: 3 (4.1%)

It usually is a decent bet to go for a left handed arm because of how many chances they get to succeed.

The last three starts numbers are a bit deceiving here as he had two great starts and one bad start, 12.2 combined scoreless with 15 strikeouts with a six earned runs in five innings sandwiched in between.

Lauer doesn’t have any one pitch that stands out to me, but at least he has four pitches that he uses and not three.

He doesn’t have ace upside. I would put him as more of a number three or four in a big league rotation. While that is helpful for the Padres I don’t know how much it helps a fantasy owner outside of a deep league.

The price you would have to pay for Lauer is likely more than Tate, which isn’t shocking, but I would rather try trading for Tate at his price because I don’t think Lauer has enough upside.

Corbin Burnes

  • 2017 (A+ – AA): 89 1/3 IP, 1.21 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, K: 88 (26.5%), BB: 21 (6.3%)
  • Last 3 starts: 18 2/3 IP, 1.45 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, K: 21 (29/6%), BB: 2 (10.7%)

Off the radar just about everywhere coming into the season Burns has thrived this season. Since being drafted last season Burnes has run through rookie ball, A, high-A, and now AA. He hasn’t has a great strikeout rate, but that isn’t much different than his college career.

Burnes has four average pitches with a fastball topping out around 95 as his best pitch. For a fourth round pick he has the chance to be a decent starter at the major league level. I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility that he gets to the majors this season with all of the injuries to the Brewers pitching staff.

In super deep leagues Burnes isn’t a terrible flier.

Austin Gomber

  • 2017: 68 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, K: 68 (22.7%), BB: 32 (10.7%)
  • Last 3 starts: 21 1/3 IP, 1.27 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, K: 24 (28.9%), BB: 5 (6.0%)

He might have been the biggest winner of the AFL last season as he had a 2.14 ERA in 33.2 innings to cap off a great 2016 season where he reached AA.

Gomber’s curveball is his best pitch and can be a nice out pitch at the major league level. He also has an average changeup he mixes in.

He has struggled this year with control as you can see by his career high walk rate. With a 64 percent strike rate I think the walks will decrease a little bit as time goes on.

If the Cardinals decide to buy, Gomber could be a name that is floated around in trade talks, but if they hang on to him I would not be surprised to see him up at some point next season.

Checking in

WEEK 12

  • Brendan Rodgers was promoted to AA, and through four games is 2-14.
  • Alex Verdugo is 21-42 in his last 10 games, but has no homers in the stretch.
  • Shed Long, like Rodgers, was promoted to AA, and like Rodgers in limited time, has struggled.
  • Ryan McMahon can’t stop hitting and is 24-49 in his last 10 games
  • Alec Hansen hasn’t pitched since the last writing.
  • Forrest Whitley struck out seven and walked one over four innings in his last start.

WEEK 13

  • Scott Blewett threw a complete game shutout on Sunday.
  • Miguel Andujar got the call to the majors, had a great debut, and was promptly sent down. The Yankees wanted to get him consistent at bats at third and needed a body to play first with all the injuries they’ve had there.
  • Peter Alonso has just three hits since the last post.
  • Yusniel Diaz has three straight two hit games and is hitting .381 in his last 10 games.
  • Jason Martin has as many hits (10) as strikeouts in his last 10 games.
  • Matt Manning had a rough first inning and didn’t get to pitch after that. He walked two, allowed two hits, and three runs.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
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