I’m back in the saddle after a couple of days off due to work requirements. We have a full 15 games on the Friday main slate, so we’ll have plenty of players to sort through. I’ll try to give you a few places to look to help narrow your focus on such a big slate. Let’s jump right in!
Pitchers to Target
Marcus Stroman – I think Stroman may go overlooked on Friday despite the good matchup. The Rays have been generous to the tune of a 24.7% strikeout rate, which is 5th worst in the league against right-handed pitching. Stroman has pitched two complete games over his last three starts, and his lone rough outing came against the Red Sox. His strikeouts aren’t the greatest, but there’s always a chance for a few extras against the Rays.
Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija has struggled out of the gate, but he’s pitched in both Colorado and Arizona, the two worst parks for pitchers. On top of that, his other two starts came against both Colorado and Arizona at home, where he was unexpectedly better. He’ll be happy to face a different team on Friday. That team will be the Padres in San Diego, which sets up as one of the best matchups for right-handed pitchers. They strikeout the second most, 25.5% of the time. I think he’ll go overlooked after his mediocre start.
Stacks to Target
Detroit Tigers – Revenge narrative exists in this one. Mike Pelfrey returns to Detroit to face his former team. Pelfrey was bad at home last year (in Detroit), giving up a .430 wOBA to right-handed batters and .389 wOBA to left handed batters. He gave up 2.55 HR/9 to right handers and 1.64 to left handers. I don’t see any way that this can end well for Pelfrey. Stack players from both sides of the plate here. This stack is bound to be popular, but don’t be afraid to differentiate your stack once the lineup is set.
Cleveland Indians – The Indians will face off against lefty Ariel Miranda and have the highest opening team total at 5.4 runs. The Indians have struck out roughly 17% of the time against left handed pitchers and have walked over 12% of the time. Miranda, on the other hand, has been abysmal on the road this season. While the data is still limited, he’s given up over a .460 wOBA against 39 batters away from home. He was similarly horrible last season against left handed batters on the road, so don’t be afraid to roster lefties against him.
Batters to Target
Alex Avila – Avila fits into the Tigers stack above, but I wanted to reiterate him here. He’ll probably be batting in the bottom half of the order, so he makes an excellent play in your Tigers stacks. He’s been as hot as ever this season versus right-handed pitching; he’s 11-25 with four home runs, eight RBI’s and five walks. If Avila is in the lineup, play him!
Matt Carpenter – Carpenter has been hitting the ball long and hard. Among all hitters on this slate, Carpenter has the 4th best batted ball distance. He faced Tim Adleman, who has a very weird profile against left-handed batters this season. Adleman has faced 18 lefties, and struck out one-third of them. He’s also only given up two hits, both which were home runs. His BABIP reads zero. That will change. The last weird thing is his 81.8% fly ball rate against lefties. If Carpenter can get a hold of one… goodbye!
Corey Seager – Seager is an exceptional talent, and there aren’t many days that he’s not the top of my list at short stop. Seager faces Jared Eickhoff, who hasn’t been half bad this year. His one downfall, this year (and last) has been left handed batters. Seager’s strength is right-handed pitchers. He has a .400 average this season against them and a .478 wOBA.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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