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Redraft Prospect Impact Rankings for 2017

Rookies have impact in redraft leagues as well as keeper and dynasty formats. Those that ended up with the likes of Michael Fulmer or Gary Sanchez last season at an extreme discount were pretty happy with the results.

When looking at this list you will see what you might call inconsistencies. Me liking a players talent more than someone who is 10 spots higher, but the guy 10 spots higher I am much more confident will get more playing time.

For the most part, once you hit the 20’s on this list, maybe even a bit earlier, these guys aren’t redraft worthy unless it is an only league or a league of about 20 teams. Josh Bell might be the last player I would be willing to draft in anything shallower than a 15-team mixed.

Format changes a lot here. I assume roto scoring and roughly 12 team leagues for this. Someone that has a safe route to 300 or so at bats like Jae-gyun Hwang carries a much higher ranking in an NL-only format than he would in even a 15-team mixed league. 

You will see a few things below that I probably should elaborate on. ETA: that is pretty much when I think the consensus expects that player to be up. Whether it is right off the bat, super-two time, around the trade deadline, or maybe as a September call-up. The meet/bear ETA is basically what I think the odds are for them to be up at that point or sooner.

  • Five means it is a lock.
  • Four – I am confident on it, but there is a chance it doesn’t happen whether it be injury or performance related
  • Three could go either way.
  • Two and one are the opposite of four and five. Where in this case two is there is an outside chance, but I wouldn’t count on it, and one would be a pretty big shock.

If you have any questions on any players, feel free to ask about them in the comment section below or on Twitter

1. Andrew Benintindi (OF): Red Sox
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: Avg, HR, R, RBI, SB
The top prospect in baseball should play every day and deliver five-category production.

2. Mitch Haniger (OF): Mariners
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: HR, R, RBI
The hype train is about to leave the station. I would much rather have anyone on this list long-term, but for one season Haniger is my guy. Starting from day one with interesting potential.

3. Dansby Swanson (SS): Braves
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: AVG, R
Will start from day one and should have a nice batting average, and while he will provide decent season long numbers, they will have little impact.

4. Yoan Moncada (2B/3B): White Sox
ETA: opening day/Early May
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: HR, R, RBI, SB
The only reason he isn’t second is because, at this moment, we don’t know when he will get to the majors. He should be up sometime in May at the latest, and could should have big time steals impact.

5. Robert Gsellman (SP): Mets
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: K, ERA, WHIP, W
He showed nice potential last year and looks like he has the fifth starter job to open the year. The bad news is he has a lot of competition behind him and any bump in the road could mean a demotion to the bullpen or minors.

6. Hunter Renfroe (OF): Padres
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: HR, -AVG
The batting average he showed in limited major league action last year was a lie. There is big power potential here, but it might come with a bad average.

7. Tom Murphy (C): Rockies
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: AVG, HR, R, RBI
A hairline fracture to Murphy’s forearm will put him out of action for about six weeks. He still has the same upside when he returns, but if Tony Wolters excels in his absence the impact could be minimal.

8. Jharel Cotton (SP): Athletics
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: K, ERA
He looked good at the end of last season and he should be a nice late round sleeper this year.

9. Jeff Hoffman (SP): Rockies
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: K
He will be one to avoid in Colorado but will be a great streamer for road starts. He might be second on this list if his home park wasn’t in Colorado.

10. Dan Vogelbach (1B): Mariners
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: AVG, HR
A great hitter, and I still think he can hit some homers despite his home park. This is a first base option that I think more people should be talking about.

11. Manuel Margot (OF): Padres
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: AVG, SB
I had Margot higher until I heard rumblings he was in a position battle, and missing time with swelling in his knee hurts his chances of winning if it is a battle. Hopefully the knee doesn’t limit his steals potential. If he opens the season on the major league roster he would slot in above Moncada.

12. Jesse Winker (OF): Reds
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: AVG, HR
Similar to Swanson, but with more power. He is lower because his ETA is more cloudy.

13. Josh Bell (1B): Pirates
ETA: opening day/Early May
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: AVG
I think people know I have been down on Bell by now. If he doesn’t start the year in the majors he should be up fairly early, and while I don’t see big power yet, there is enough.

14. Bradley Zimmer (OF): Indians
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: HR, R, SB, -AVG
Zimmer has a nice power/speed combination. His impact once he makes the majors might take a while as he adjusts to major league pitching, but once he adjusts he will be a nice asset. Great OBP even if the average is bad.

15. Aaron Judge (OF): Yankees
ETA: Early May
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: HR
There is a chance he might lose the job to Hicks out of the spring. The power will always be exciting.

16. Lucas Giolito (SP): White Sox
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: K
I don’t know when he will get the call. I would not be surprised if it is in April or down the road sometime in July. I haven’t given up hope on him as a prospect, though.

17. Tyler Glasnow (SP): Pirates
ETA: Mid May
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: K, -WHIP
The Pirates seem set on leaving him out of the rotation for some reason. Kuhl, Hutchison, Brault, and maybe Keller could all jump him in the pecking order.

18. Josh Hader (SP): Brewers
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: K, ERA
Probably the best lefty prospect in baseball. His numbers might struggle because of his minor league home. Don’t be deterred.

19. Jose De Leon (SP): Rays
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: K, ERA, WHIP
A lot of people have soured on De Leon. He has high strikeout potential and pitches in a nice park to help combat his home run problems.

20. Tyler O’Neil (OF): Mariners
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: HR, AVG, R, RBI
Not sure when, or if, O’Neil will get the call, but when he does he should be owned just about everywhere.

21. Harrison Bader (OF): Cardinals
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: AVG
The typical boring Cardinals prospect that will hit .280 and pace out for 20 homers.

22. Rowdy Tellez (1B): Blue Jays
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: HR
This depends on how much the Jays want to play Morales at first. If they get fed up with Justin Smoak and want to keep Morales at DH, Tellez could get a midseason look.

23. Amir Garrett (SP): Reds
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: ERA, WHIP
I don’t know if I buy Garrett becoming an impact arm in the majors. The ERA and WHIP might help a little, but I don’t see the strikeouts or wins being there this year.

24. Reynaldo Lopez (SP): While Sox
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: K
He might be a bullpen guy long-term. I don’t know what that means for this year.

25. Luke Weaver (SP): Cardinals
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: W, ERA, WHIP
The Cardinals have a crowded rotation even with the Alex Reyes injury.





26. Ozzie Albies (SS/2B): Braves
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: AVG,SB
From the time he gets the call he could be the top guy on this list with his stolen base potential.

27. Kevin Newman (SS): Pirates
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 1
Impact: AVG,R
I just wrote on him last week. Newman should hit the ground running when he gets a chance. It wont be big time impact, but all he has to do is run into a few homers to give value.

28. Austin Meadows (OF): Pirates
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: AVG, HR, R, RBI
From the time he gets the call he could be the top guy on this list with his stolen base potential. He needs a McCutchen trade to get the call – either that or a long-term injury to one of the outfielders.

29. Robert Stephenson (SP): Reds
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: -ERA, -WHIP
I really don’t like Stephenson as a fantasy option. I think he will do more harm than good.

30. Clint Frazier (OF): Yankees
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: HR
He might not have a place to play in the outfield with two huge contracts plugging up left and centerfield.

31. Lewis Brinson (OF): Brewers
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: AVG, HR, R, RBI
The Brewers have so much outfield depth that I don’t know if he comes up this year without a trade of Braun or a complete collapse from Broxton.

32. Yohander Mendez (SP): Rangers
ETA: May/June
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: K, W
Could be the first minor league arm the Rangers call if someone struggles or goes on the DL.

33. Matt Chapman (3B): Athletics
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: HR, -AVG
The Athletics are always careful about their money, so I wouldn’t expect Chapman up before any service time deadlines are passed. He has big time power and big time strikeouts.

34. Cody Bellinger (1B/OF): Dodgers
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: HR, R, RBI
He is blocked at first by Adrian Gonzalez and in the outfield by what feels like 10 players. The good news for Bellinger is the Dodgers aren’t afraid to spend money so Super 2 deadlines aren’t something to worry about. Even if he does get a call, the only thing that would assure full-time work is a long term injury to Gonzalez. Otherwise, I can’t see him playing more than four times per week.

35. Franklin Barreto (SS/2B): Athletics
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: AVG, SB
It feels like he has been a prospect for a long time, but Barreto is still just 21. I wouldn’t be surprised if he made it up early this year, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t get the call at all with the Athletics being nowhere near contention.

36. Ian Happ (2B/OF): Cubs
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: AVG, R
He is blocked everywhere, but he can also play just about everywhere. An injury to just about any position could give him a chance at a call up.

37. Francis Martes (SP): Astros
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: K, W
As much as people are calling for his promotion early in the season, the Astros don’t really have a spot open for him.

38. Jaime Schultz (SP): Rays
ETA: August/September
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: K, -WHIP
High strikeout potential but it comes with a lot of walks.

39. Jorge Alfaro (C): Phillies
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: AVG, HR
Only in two catcher leagues would I really have any interest.

40. J.P. Crawford (SS): Phillies
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: AVG, R
Very boring, and he is no lock to get called up this season even though it seems like he has been on the cusp of a promotion for years.

41. Jae-gyun Hwang (3B): Giants
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: unknown
Should be on the opening day roster. That doesn’t mean there will be much impact. Might not start and we really don’t know what he is yet.

42. Nick Williams (OF): Phillies
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: None
I don’t think he will impact in any category. He will mostly be an NL-only league or deep league asset. The good news is he probably will be getting the call.

43. Trey Mancini (1B): Orioles
ETA: June/July
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: AVG
He probably needs an injury to get the call. Mancini played really well in limited action last year. A lot of people are down on him so there probably will not be a rush to the waiver wire. The minor league signing of Pedro Alvarez drops him almost 20 spots in the rankings.

44. Lourdes Gurriel (2B): Blue Jays
ETA: August/September
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: unknown
Devon Travis has been having injury issues. Maybe it opens the door for Gurriel at some point midseason.

45. Erick Fedde (SP): Nationals
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 1
Impact: K, ERA, WHIP
The Nationals have a good rotation and there are a couple of guys that might be closer to the majors. Fedde has more upside than pretty much all of their minor league players, but it could be hard for him to get to the majors.

46. Koda Glover (SP): Nationals
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 5
Impact: ERA, SV
Just because there is a chance he could get the closer job. I think the odds are against him.

47. Raimel Tapia (OF): Rockies
ETA: August/September
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: AVG, R
He would be a lot higher if he had a path to playing time.

48. Peter O’Brien (OF): Royals
ETA: opening day/Early May
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 4
Impact: HR, -AVG
Probably a lifetime AAAA type player.

49. Greg Allen (OF): Indians
ETA: July/August
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 2
Impact: AVG, SB
As time goes on I am getting closer to the idea that he could beat Zimmer to the majors.

50. Tyler Beede (SP): Giants
ETA: August/September
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: unknown
The Giants have question marks at the end of the rotation. It all depends on if his velocity can hold, but if Bedde succeeds maybe he gets the call.

* Allen Cordoba (SS): Padres
ETA: opening day
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 3
Impact: unknown
I just wanted to stick one Rule 5 pick in here. He hasn’t played above rookie ball, but the only thing in his way, assuming he makes the team, is Luis Sardinas.

* Ryan McMahon (3B/1B): Rockies
ETA: May
Meet/Beat ETA (1-5): 1
Impact: AVG, R, RBI, HR
I wanted to stick him in here with the Desmond news for those that might be scrambling in an NL-only league. Surgery implies a longer timeline. Mark Reynolds looks to be the odds on favorite to take over at first, but McMahon did get a lot of work at first last year and played there primarily during the AFL. Playing in Colorado offers the luxury of boosting offensive categories. I don’t think he gets to play, but it is in the realm of possibility.

Other rookie eligible players to monitor: Jacob Nottingham, Jorge Alfaro, Tony Zych, Matt Strahm, Steven Brault, Charlie Tilson, Albert Almore, Roman Quinn, J.T. Chargois, A.J. Minter.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
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5 comments on “Redraft Prospect Impact Rankings for 2017

  1. Very good article. I found it invaluable for my preparatory work. Thank you!

  2. For your draft, there’s zero chance of Moncada being promoted before Sox has cashed in on an extra another year, so late is the earliest.

    • It is a possibility they keep him down, but I think the Lawrie being cut opens up the door for him to get to the big leagues before June.

      I understand the Lawrie cut could have been used solely to save about $3 million but I would think they would still rather keep him around if they weren’t planning on Moncada being up early in the season, even if Lawrie is dealing with injury problems.

      To your point saying “sometime in May at the latest” probably should be worded better or explained better. The “4” is really based on having confidence that even if he doesn’t hit those times he will be up in May sometime, but there still is a chance it is later than that.

      For what its worth I wont be drafting anyone that isnt a virtual lock for an opening day roster spot. I don’t like sitting on prospects and being toyed with them for months and then having to go through the typical adjustment period. I am more of an in season prospect adder where I like to grab 1-2 weeks before it seems like someone is on the verge of a promotion, and I do my best to flip them once the hype gets out of control.

      • I’m pretty much prepared to bet my future as a Sox fan on that the front office won’t sacrifice a year of control over bringing him up too early (Saladino/Sanchez will play 2B until then).

        This is not meant as a stab against your evaluation though. I fully understand your valuation of the “4” and agree with you that the number is good valuation of his ETA.

        My first post was mostly meant as a warning to those thinking there’s a chance he’ll be there by Opening Day.

        Keep this up, FA will always remain is my favorite fantasy site! 🙂

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