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Buy Low/Sell High Week 6

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We are just about halfway through the regular season. If you haven’t already it is time to believe the 2016 season over the 2016 preseason. Matt Ryan is an elite fantasy quarterback; Aaron Rodgers is not. DeMarco Murray is an elite back again, Todd Gurley is a great talent in a bad situation. 

Don’t be caught up on what you paid to acquire a player in the draft. It is irrelevant now, and has been for weeks. Yes, Todd Gurley was a consensus first round pick, but there is no chance he goes there now. Don’t hold someone like Gurley hoping someone will give you first, or even second, round value from the preseason.

Use all the information you have to determine what you should be doing in a trade. Touches, targets, yards, red zone work, etc. are all really important. Talent matters, but so does the situation. 

Don’t forget players on the Buccaneers and Vikings are now added to the list of guys who don’t have a bye and, assuming health, will play every game from here on out.

Happy trading this week, and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter for Sunday morning active and inactive players as well as in-game injury news and anything else football related.

Buy Low

RB – C.J. Anderson

You are probably asking yourself “wasn’t he just a sell last week?” The answer to that question is yes. There was worry that Anderson would lose snaps to Booker, and that still exists, but Thursday the snaps trended back into Anderson’s favor. On Thursday, in a game the Broncos were trailing almost from the start, Anderson played 57 of 73 snaps compared to just 15 for Booker. Anderson has had a few bad games in a row and I think you can get a panicked owner to buy.

Potential buy-low offer: Jarvis Landry for Anderson

RB – Mark Ingram

The Saints refusal to give him the ball inside the five can’t continue, can it? The  good news is that Ingram did get 16 carries. The bad news is the Saints scored five touchdowns and Ingram didn’t get any. The Saints will always be a high scoring offense. Ingram will have weeks like this that he wont score but he will find the end zone too. Get him from an expectedly frustrated owner.

Potential buy-low offer: Jordan Matthews for Ingram

RB – Jamaal Charles

He didn’t play a ton of snaps and Ware got a far larger amount of touches. I am happy to see what Charles did. He had 11 touches for 47 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs might use a 1-2 punch with Ware being the run out the clock back. If Charles can consistently get 15-18 touches, and I think he will most weeks, he is going to be a top-15 back. A lot of owners are going to panic about what happened today. Use that to your advantage.

Potential buy-low offer: Emmanuel Sanders for Charles

WR – Marvin Jones

He has had back-to-back low yardage games saved by finding the end zone. The Lions haven’t had a ton of passing yards the past couple weeks so I would expect Jones to be able to get the yards when the offense starts to do more damage through the air. The good news for Jones is he does a great job of finding the end zone.

Potential buy-low offer: LeGarrette Blount for Jones.




Sell-High

RB – James White

White is going to have big boom weeks like this from time to time. He isn’t going to score too often, and might not score twice again. With such limited upside I would try to sell him now. There is no guarantee Dion Lewis comes back anytime soon, but once he does White loses all value. Get something for White while you still can.

Potential sell-high offer: White for Stefon Diggs

RB – Matt Jones

Want to see something crazy?

Yea, Jones had the crazy game, but he trailed passing downs back Chris Thompson in snaps in a game the Redskins won and were never really in catch-up mode. I have never really been a big fan of Jones so maybe you want to take this recommendation with a grain of salt. I just can’t trust him.

Potential sell-high offer: Jones for Julian Edelman

WR – Terrelle Pryor

What he is doing as a converted quarterback is fantastic. Pryor has been a WR2 lately, but almost only because of the touchdowns. The 75-yard performance is his second highest of the season. He is an exciting player because of the chances to get some quarterback snaps; use that to your advantage on the trade market.

Potential sell-high offer: Pryor for Jerick McKinnon

TE – Coby Fleener

Something tells me Fleener isn’t going to get too many rushing touchdowns. I guess he is no different than any of the other tight ends outside of the elite group. Fleener is going to have weeks where he does nothing with a random boom here and there. The thing is, like I just said, he isn’t any different from those other guys. People perceive him as better, I think, and you can deal Fleener for something to help you elsewhere and start someone like Zach Miller.

Late edit – After looking at snap counts Fleener was actually out snapped by the Saints other tight end in week six, Josh Hill.

Potential sell-high offer: Fleener for Cameron Meredith

Buy-High

RB – LeSean McCoy 

He was criminally underrated in drafts coming into the season. McCoy is now just outside the elite top group of Bell, Johnson, and Elliott, but I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to put him in that group.

Potential buy-high offer: A.J. Green for McCoy

Sell-Low

QB – Aaron Rodgers

This is a combination of my devaluation of quarterbacks and his struggles to this point in the season. Rodgers still has the name value that will get you interest on the trade market so you shouldn’t have too much trouble finding suitors like you might if you are trying to trade a Matt Stafford or Philip Rivers type. Something is not going right with the Packers offense right now, and I wouldn’t want to wait around with Rodgers in my lineup until they figure it out.

Potential sell-low offer: Rodgers and DeMarco Murray for Le’Veon Bell

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
Andy Germani

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36 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High Week 6

  1. Carr and Bennett for Marshall? The Marshall owner just lost Reed and Roethlisberger.

    • This is something I would definitely try to pursue. You might have to add something small to it to get the deal done but as long as it isn’t an important asset I would throw it in.

  2. Palmer and Mckinnon to the Big Ben owner for Anderson and Big Ben? They also have A. Brown and unfortunately (for me) Stafford as a backup… Do you think Big Ben is worth including.. or just ask for Anderson alone?

    • If he has Stafford he isnt going to have any interest in Palmer. So this would essentially be McKinnon for Ben and Anderson which wouldnt be enough to get anything done.

      With him having Stafford you might be able to toss a non essential bench piece for Ben. McKinnon might be the high end for what I would give but you could start lower.

      • Bernard/Powell/Lewis/Snead for Ben?

        • Bernard for Ben is a possibility out of those guys. McKinnon might have to be the price to get it done. I would be 50/50 on doing that because what you can find on the wire to replace a QB compared to what you need to find if a RB goes down.

          • No response for Bernard for Ben…. This owner isn’t big in trades….Picked up Jacquizz Rodgers today as free agent… Would offering him for big Ben be a good offer if I have good depth at RB or is he too valuable ROS with TBs schedule?

          • I dont think Rodgers for Ben would be enough unless he is extremely desperate for a RB. Rodgers might be a 2-3 week starter and a top-15 RB. Rodgers will have a role when Martin returns but it will be minimal. So I wouldnt worry about his schedule after week 10 or 11.

  3. Would you consider AJ Green a buy low at this point? With Charles, Mckinnon, Howard, Bernard, Powell, and Lewis as my RB’s…. what would be a fair offer? The guy who has him is very thin all over, but especially at RB. I would think he’d want 2 solid RB’s for Green. Or perhaps I just sell high on Miller and pair him with Snead/Coates? He turned down Miller and Coates for Green last week…Thanks!

    • I dont really consider him a buy low because I don’t think his value is necessarily low. He’s a buy, sure, but he is second among all receivers in receiving yards behind only Julio and his crazy 300 yard game.

      I doubt any combination of those backs would get anything done. Miller for Green would be an even swap but I would want Miller in that case. Miller isnt a sell high, hes a hold. Miller has finally reached the point of doing what was expected all offseason.

  4. Pickup Ajayi, drop Dixon?

    • Ya. Dixon isnt going to get that role anytime soon with how well West has been playing.

      • What’s the FAAB there? 10%?

        • If you really really want him I would assume it would cost more than that, probably 15.

          For what its worth, he was dropped before kickoff in one of my leagues so he’s out there for me. I am really deep at RB in that league so it changes things a little but I am probably bidding about 3% on him. I know it wont get him but just in case a lot of people are sleeping I can get him and play keep away in case he does actually become a thing.

          It all depends on situation. If you’re running back desperate 10-15 is probably what you need to do to make sure you get him. If you just want him as a bench lottery ticket about 5%

          The Dolphins line was all there for the first time in a while but I still cant see too many games where the Dolphins are able to just run 36 times like they did on Sunday. And I do think Foster has more of a role at some point once he is closer to 100%

          Ajayi might be the lead back but a 100% Foster should still get at least 30% of the teams running back work. And almost all of the passing downs work.

  5. I have been trying to LeSean McCoy since son started! I really like him in the preseason, but somebody in my draft took him 12th overall, so I was unable to get my hands on the RB1. Also, I traded Marvin Jones and Giovani Bernard for Devonta Freeman and Gary Barnidge.

    • Ya I never really understood the McCoy hate. By the time the season started I want to say I had him in the middle of the second round but I cant remember for sure. Definitely not the third but then again I guess 2nd vs 3rd isnt a huge difference.

      The only concern with him was that he didnt score a ton of touchdowns last year. Workload was always going to be there and he has great ability.

      Solid deal there. Freeman is the best player in the deal. Bernard is so up and down. As long as Hill is around he isnt a great option. Barnidge is hit or miss but so is every tight end not named Gronk, Reed, or Olsen.

  6. Sell Howard for Martin? I’m thinking Howard’s tougher schedule a questionable outlook ROS might make for a good time to sell and pickup someone with a great playoff schedule..(and already past bye week).

  7. My team: 4-2
    Qb Brady
    Wr Hopkins
    Wr Landry
    Wr Evans
    Rb Bernard
    Rb White
    Te Rudolph
    flex J. Matthews
    Bench J. Brown, Clay, D. Williams, Booker, Gillislee, Morris.
    IR Eifert

    Opponents team: 2-4
    Qb Brees
    Wr Robinson
    Wr T. Williams
    Wr Enunwa
    Rb Charles
    Rb Gordon
    Te Reed
    flex Blount
    Bench Diggs, Hogan, Asiata, Rainy, C.A.P, Ertz

    I like Robinson and Charles. Should I hold on this team and wait to see if one of these rb back-ups get the stating job? Should I target players on his team? With what and how?
    Thanks for your team and advise.

    • This is a big week for Robinson. If it doesnt happen now I am not sure if it will this season. That being said I do trust his talent, its the quarterback that is the problem.

      You could use another running back because right now all of your backups are just injury fliers. I would see if you can get Blount or Charles. I would assume the limited showing from Charles has some panicked, but a box score looker might see 10 points and be ok with it.

      Maybe see if you can do like Rudolph plus Jordan Matthews for one of those guys. I prefer Charles. He does have Reed now but there is no knowing when or if he returns so Rudolph would be nice insurance.

      Its a tough call on the trade because I dont know if your players lineup to do anything small, but if I am in your spot I would be looking for another running back right now.

      • Thanks. What’s your thoughts on Knile Davis?

        • He is fine as a one week desperation filler but I dont think he has any value after this week and I wouldnt want to burn a claim or any FAAB on him

          • I offered J. Matthews for Ingram. My opponent countered Ingram for Evans.
            Qb Luck
            Wr Baldwin
            Wr Lockett
            Wr Tate
            Rb Gurley
            Rb Ingram
            Te Barnidge
            Flex Garçon
            Bench Wentz, Royal, smith sr., moncrief, c. Coleman, Powell
            Ingram, Gurley, Baldwin are the only pieces I see worth dealing for at the moment. Also, I feel evans is too much for Ingram. If i were to sell I think I can get a better return. Plus, I would like to keep him. But there’s a price and if the right came by … We’ll s=. Can you help with a counter offer? By the way I still have one for charles. I offered J. Matthews and Rudolph. We’ll see. Thanks.

  8. Oops. Sorry, His team has Luck for qb and mine is the one above this note with Brady for qb.

    • You dont really matchup well with the second team. Mainly because you both have receiving depth and could use another RB.

      You could trade him Brees and take the slight downgrade to Luck but I assume you would rather keep him.

      You have Gillislee so it looks like one of those bench RB fliers is going to pay off this week. He is a nice start assuming McCoy is out, I think he will be, so you can start him of go to the McCoy owner and try to trade Gillislee to him

  9. Sorry Andy. I should have posted my team with my earlier note.

    My team :
    Qb Brady
    Wr Hopkins
    Wr Landry
    Wr Evans
    Rb Bernard
    Rb White
    Te Rudolph
    flex J. Matthews
    Bench J. Brown, Clay, D. Williams, Booker, Gillislee, Morris.
    IR Eifert

    I offered J. Matthews for Ingram. My opponent countered Ingram for Evans.

    His team :
    Qb Luck
    Wr Baldwin
    Wr Lockett
    Wr Tate
    Rb Gurley
    Rb Ingram
    Te Barnidge
    Flex Garçon
    Bench Wentz, Royal, smith sr., moncrief, c. Coleman, Powell

    Ingram, Gurley, Baldwin are the only pieces I see worth dealing for at the moment. Please reread this note and offer advise if a trade is ok or how to better improve my team. Thank you so much for your efforts.

    • Ya sorry I meant Brady not Brees.

      I wouldnt do Evans for Ingram. Evans is a top 4-5 receiver rest of season. I wouldnt take that much of a downgrade to Ingram just to get a running back.

      What I said earlier still holds true on you guys not being a great match. It would just be the downgrade from Brady to Luck. So if you wanted like Brady and anyone from Jordan Matthews through the end of your bench for Luck and Gurley/Ingram.

      Based on his offer of Ingram for Evans I dont think he is really looking to sell low on Ingram.

      Is D Williams DeAngelo? Maybe you can look to trade a receiver with DeAngelo to the Bell owner or a receiver with Gillislee to the McCoy owner. As of right now when Bernard or White go on a bye or get hurt you are in a lot of trouble at running back.

      You could also try to trade one of your top end talents like Brady, Evans, Hopkins to get 2 good players in return. Like a great receiver with a startable running back if you deal Evans and Hopkins.

      • Thanks. We’ll see if there’s any movement.

      • I hear you. However, what about white, rudolph, and matthews for Baldwin and ingram? I’m thinking it satisfies his selling high on ingram with a three for one, it removes white (injury, bye week, temp job until lewis returns) from my team, and he upgrades te and gets a wr. Does this thought process make sense? I’ve played fantasy for a little while, but trades are always challenging for me. Well let me know.

        • I dont know if he would accept that but its worth a shot. I think you get the two best players in that deal. If he values Matthews over Baldwin then you have a shot but I would rather have Baldwin.

          • I’d rather have Baldwin too. When you mentioned that I can use one of my wr (Evans or Hopkins) to get wr and rb in return; do you think Baldwin and ingram fit the level of your description?

          • I guess. I would prefer more certainty though. Both Baldwin and Ingram have issues right now. I would prefer to go get a high end RB/WR to pair with a startable RB/WR.

            I would rather trade away Hopkins than Evans. Evans I think its a toss up but I would lean no. Hopkins I think I would do that

  10. The more I look at Allen Robinson’s schedule ROS… (esp playoff) the more I think he may be more of a sell high… And try to buy someone like Hopkins or alshon jeffery who has a better playoff schedule..any thoughts on him? The same owner has Hopkins and jeffery and also Spencer ware. Is there a trade that makes sense in there? Maybe Robinson and Jacquizz Rogers and Gillislee for Hopkins and Ware… Or Charles and Robinson for Hopkins and cooks/Freeman?

    • He has a rough schedule in weeks 13 and 14 but other than that the matchups are fairly neutral. Nothing that would scare me away but nothing that makes me run to trade for him.

      After this week against a bad defense might be a nice time to sell

      • Thank Andy… always appreciate the insight! My team has quite a few RB’s with the news this week: Lamar Miller, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, Jacquizz Rodgers, Dwayne Washington, Ivory, Gillislee, Dion Lewis. I’m thinking of dropping one of them or trying to deal two of them away. Perhaps Gillislee + ? to the McCoy owner? McCoy owner also has Gordon, Coleman, and Chris Johnson at RB and Benjamin, Cooper, Austin, Sanu at WR. Would Gillislee + Rodgers for Cooper/Coleman be a good offer? I’m not sure who’s the best value buy on his roster. Thanks!

        • I would probably just drop Lewis at some point. Gillislee is essentially just a throw in and not really a super valuable piece. You can try what you said but I cant see anyone giving up one of those players for a filler for a couple weeks.

          You would probably have to give up Robinson plus Gillislee for Cooper

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