36 Comments

Buy Low/Sell High Week 5

Buy Low Sell High Logo

With five weeks pretty much in the books most teams know where they stand. The virtual locks for the playoffs (5-0 or 4-1), the in the hunt (3-2), the I have a shot but running out of bad weeks I can have (2-3), and the I need a prayer (1-4, 0-5).

The time to prey on owners in the final group is now. They will be desperate to get anything to help their season. Taking a loss on a trade might be a good option for them if it means they can dodge a bye week. 

Hopefully you aren’t in that group yourself, but you also need to take note of that. If you are in a pinch and have a player on a bye you might have to trade at a slight loss to avoid the bye and give yourself a chance to win week in and week out. Just don’t go trading Mike Evans for Michael Crabtree. If you can, target some of the players that have already had their bye weeks on teams like the Saints, Packers, and Lions.

Happy trading this week, and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter for Sunday morning active and inactive players as well as in-game injury news and anything else football related.

Buy Low

RB – Lamar Miller

This was a really tough matchup for Miller so the disappointing game isn’t a huge surprise. Up until this week the workload had been there. I would expect them to get him the 20-touch workload most weeks. The yards per carry might suffer, but in better matchups more often than not he should end up near 90-100 total yards. The touchdown drought will end sometime soon.

Potential buy-low offer: Larry Fitzgerald for Miller

RB – Jerick McKinnon

He got off to a hot start in week five, but failed to find running room after the half. The best news you can take from this game is that he had 20 carries, and while he didn’t score he did get a carry from the two-yard line before Asiata came in to finish it off. I think the workload will be there and he will score from time to time. He is a low-end second running back

Potential buy-low offer: DeSean Jackson for McKinnon

RB – Doug Martin

The Buccaneers are going on a bye this week, and Martin should come out of the bye as the starting running back. Sims showed little reason that Martin should lose significant, or any, touches, so Martin should come back and take his normal role. You should be able to buy at a solid price again this week with a 100% guarantee that his owner won’t be able to start him next week.

Potential buy-low offer: Sterling Shepard for Martin

WR – John Brown

Brown is the number two in Arizona now. Michael Floyd’s snaps have fallen dramatically and Carson Palmer should be out of the concussion protocol by next week. Brown will be on the field a lot and should benefit. People might not believe in him with only one great week. Pounce on that and get Brown who should be a high-end third running back.

Potential buy-low offer: Terrance West for Brown

WR – Jarvis Landry

Landry is never going to be exciting. He is a poor man’s Julian Edelman – lots of targets and not going to score a lot of touchdowns. The Dolphins barely ran any plays in this game. It resulted in just 18 attempts for Tannehill and three targets for Landry. Take this low target total as an anomaly. Landry will be a solid high-end flex, although with a low floor.

Potential buy-low offer: Matt Jones for Landry




Sell-High

RB – Theo Riddick

It was only Riddick and Zenner active in the Lions’ backfield this week. They will add someone this week or Washington will be back. Riddick did almost all of his damage through the air, which isn’t out of the ordinary. What isn’t normal was him finding the end zone twice. Riddick is a borderline flex option in standard leagues and a solid second running back in PPR. I am not sure if you will really be able to sell high after this performance, but it doesn’t hurt to try.

Potential sell-high offer: Riddick for Sterling Shepard

RB – Melvin Gordon

I typically like to avoid writing a name in this often, but sometimes there aren’t a ton of options and it really becomes more of a sell or buy than before. Gordon has seven touchdowns through five weeks and at least one in every game. He is not going to be a top-three back at the end of the season. He will end up with a 70-yard floor every week and a 50/50 chance to score, but I think you can get a lot better than that if you try to trade him.

Potential sell-high offer: Gordon for A.J. Green

WR – T.Y. Hilton

I hate writing about the same person two weeks in a row, but Hilton had another huge week. Through five games Andrew Luck has been sacked 19 times, including today’s five. Like I said last week, Luck isn’t going to last with that beating. Once Luck is out Hilton goes back to what he was last season, irrelevant. If you keep Hilton you are crossing your fingers that Luck is going to stay healthy.

Potential sell-high offer: Hilton for Carlos Hyde

Buy-High

RB – Carlos Hyde

No matter what he is going to be involved in the offense. Blowout or close game, he gets the touches. If they are inside the 10 he is going to get a chance or two to find the end zone. Hyde is an RB1 that very few people really seem to have faith in.

Potential buy-high offer: Todd Gurley for Carlos Hyde

Sell-Low

RB – Matt Forte

He was a buy-high after week one, but things have changed a lot since then. He has been beat up and is rapidly losing work to Bilal Powell. Forte still has some name value and some season long numbers that you might be able to use to your advantage in a trade.

Potential sell-low offer: Forte for Doug Martin

RB – C.J. Anderson

After a huge first week Anderson has fallen off a bit failing to rush for 50 yards in three straight games. His upcoming schedule has a few nice matchups, and he gets a short week this week that tends to benefit higher end running backs. The downside is this might be quietly becoming a running back by committee backfield. Anderson had 62 yards on 14 touches – Booker 59 on 10. Snaps favored Anderson as well, but only 38-27. Booker was in the game early so I don’t know if this was only a result of them being in catchup mode in the fourth, and even if it was I would assume Anderson would be the better option.

Potential sell-low offer: Anderson for Julian Edelman

It’s all about perception

RB – Todd Gurley

Here is a new category; I did do something similar once with Antonio Brown last year. I am not sure what Gurley is. You could call him a sell-high, sell-low, or buy-low right now. It really depends on the perception of your league. Gurley is mostly name value right now. He is an elite talent, but he is stuck in an offense that has a bad line and a horrid passing attack. The touches will always be there, but the yards per carry will be ugly. When in close he is the best bet to score.

It all comes down to this. If you own him and you can get top-eight running back, like second round value, I would sell. I wouldn’t be surprised if his owner is selling low. In that case, if you can buy Gurley as a mid level second running back I would buy all day.

If you’re selling: Gurley for Jordan Howard and Marvin Jones
If you’re buying: Isaiah Crowell and Brandin Cooks for Gurley

 

Fantasy Rundown BannerLooking for additional buy/sell trade advice or waiver wire pick-ups, head on over to Fantasy Rundown.

Related Posts

The following two tabs change content below.
Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
Andy Germani

Latest posts by Andy Germani (see all)

36 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High Week 5

  1. Bennet+Coates for Benjamin or D. Thomas?

    Carr+Gore+Powell for Hyde?

    • I love both trades assuming you would be getting Hyde and Benjamin or Thomas.

      If I had to pick one I think I would take the Benjamin/Demaryius trade over Hyde. Mainly because I dont trust Bennett and Coates as much as the Carr, Gore, Powell combination. If you can do both trades I think I would and just fill in the gaps in free agency.

  2. what about trading away T.Y. Hilton to buy low on Deandre Hopkins? thoughts?

    • standard league

    • I would do that. Hopkins has a nice matchup coming against the Colts. I would expect a down week for Denver after that. Once he gets past that the matchups arent too bad rest of season.

      Obviously Hilton has been better to this point but from here on out I would rather have Hopkins. Even with the QB situation in Houston

  3. As a Miller owner, I have heard “the touchdown drought will end” every freakin’ week. I’m not ’bout to trade him or anything, but he is the RB19 in my league! That, in a 9-teamer, is a low RB2, high RB3 operating as my RB1. I’m just expressing some frustration here, even as I improved to 3-2 this week after an 0-2 start.

    • I hear you on that but put this in perspective. He has more touches and total yards than Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon has seven more touchdowns which is unheard of.

      I dont think many people really thought Miller was going to be a double digit TD guy, about 8 I think is what was expected. The yards and touches have been there other than this week. He might not be the top-5 guy people drafted but I would still say he’s an RB1 rest of season. In your case you cant sell, but I think you can buy him at that RB 15-20 value from a frustrated owner and he is going to put up top-12 numbers rest of season.

  4. Would you trade Gordon for Sanders? I have micheal, hill, yeldon, and west.

    • I would rather have Gordon. I think you can do better for Gordon if you really want to sell.

      • I tried to go Robinson but he wouldn’t bite. I have Julio and Evans but WR3 continues to be an issue with a rotation of Cobb, enunwa and Tate.

        • Those guys arent bad as a WR3. I think Robinson is the area you should be going for if you are selling Gordon. Jordy, Demaryius, Mike Evans fall into that category too. If you go lower than that I think you arent getting good value for Gordon and would better off staying put.

  5. Just turned down an offer to give my Charles for his crabtree. He also has aj green and needs help at RB. What about Charles, Robinson and Bernard for Green and Crabtree?

  6. Just turned down an offer to give my Charles for his crabtree. He also has aj green and needs help at RB. What about Charles, Robinson and Bernard for Green and Crabtree?

    • The value there is solid. Pretty much an even deal. I would want to see what is up with Jeremy Hill if I could. If he misses any time at all Bernard could immediately be a borderline RB1. And by now you should know I love Charles. I would hate to hold all this time and deal him right before hes ready to rock.

      I actually have a deal myself on the table built around Charles + for Green + and I am really struggling to pull the trigger even though I feel like I should. There is so much potential for Charles to step right in and be a top-5 back rest of season in such a depleted RB pool.

  7. Was offered obj and mike Wallace for Hilton and Ryan Mathews… Ppr

    Do I really want to make this trade based on the belief that luck goes down?

    • Its not just the risk of Luck going down but that would completely tank his value. He is also getting what I think is an unsustainable amount of targets. Over the years he has been more of a big play guy that will be boom or bust. He is the only receiver in the NFL to get double digit targets every week this season.

      I would do that deal I think it is the perfect buy low and sell high. I am not high on Mathews. I think his weekly ceiling and floor are both low. And I would rather have Beckham than Hilton even with how both have played so far this season.

      • Eli and the rest of the giants offense is not a concern to you?

      • He’s also said that he’d give me obj for demaryius and Mathews.

        Which do you prefer? PPR. I feel like this one is better.

        • Hilton and Demaryius are pretty close in value to me. Pretty much a toss up.

          I might slightly prefer Demaryius because I think he is able to keep up what he is doing, and wouldnt be surprised for him to get better. Hilton is at his peak in terms of production. Moncriefs return should lower Hilton’s targets and Hilton has been in a lot of game scripts that play into his benefit, trailing late and needing to air it out.

          I am a little concerned about the Giants offense but I trust Beckham’s talent to shine through. Also Eli Manning always has these random stretches where he looks completely terrible then all of a sudden he will start looking like a borderline hall of famer.

          Beckham had a bad start to the season last year then had a big week 5 and was good from there on out. At week 5 last year he had 69 more yards and 2 more touchdowns. And through 5 weeks last season he had 3 games where he had fewer than 80 yards and in 2 of them he didnt even crack 50 yards.

          Targets and yards per catch are there he just needs to catch 1 more of them every game, on average, and he would be where he was last year.

          Long winded way of saying I want Beckham. I would trade Hilton first but couldnt fault you if you would rather trade Demaryius because they are close to me.

  8. 12 team standard league. I received offer to trade D Thomas, for I. Crowell. Should I take it

    • I would rather have Demaryius. I would do it unless you have absolutely no running back depth, and even if you dont I think I still would. I am not a Crowell as a top-18 back believer.

  9. Thanks I been pondering this trade all day. My rb’s are D Johnson, L Murray M Assiata and D Booker

    • I like the value you get but man does that leave you thin at RB. What is your WR situation? I might say no based on the fact that you would have to start one of Latavius, Asiata, or Booker on a weekly basis

  10. My receivers are D Thomas, D Bryant, Crabtree,B cooks, Shepherd and T Williams. My league has 2 flex one for WR/RB and other TE/wr

    • Ah I read the original trade wrong. I thought you were getting Demaryius and trading Crowell away.

      I like Demaryius more than Crowell. I think you can shoot higher. See if you can get Jordan Howard for Demaryius. Maybe even try to go as high as Carlos Hyde or if you can wait another week for the RB to come back Doug Martin.

  11. Ok thanks great advice

  12. Would you consider Brandon Cooks a good buy low? I like his playoff schedule and he wasn’t very productive before the bye. Since I have Charles…would offering Mckinnon and Snead for Cooks and Ware be a good deal?

    • I dont think you could get that accepted but it’s worth a shot.

      • He countered with Miller and Snead for Gore, Ware and Cameron Meredith… Not a fan. What do u think of Gore? Would Ware, gore and cooks be worth trading Miller and Snead? I feel like i’d definitely be downgrading at RB…but would get a better receiver…

  13. I think you are setting the bar low on Miller. He is a hold now. If you try to trade him you arent going to get near the value you should. Gore is nothing special. His ceiling is essentially what Miller is doing now plus a touchdown or two. I would take Miller over Cooks and Gore over Snead. I think the difference between Miller and Cooks is larger than Gore to Snead

  14. My RBs are McKinnon, Bernard, Lamar Miller, and Terrance West. I have a SUPER tough opponent this week. In a 2RB, 2 WR, 1 QB, 1TE PPR league, should I go for Carlos Hyde or another great RB(I was thinking Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, or Mark Ingram). Or should I just start Gio and hope for a good game flow? Would this be a good time to sell high on Gio, with his 15.6 pts he got last week in my league? My WRs are A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones, Willie Snead, Travis Benjamin, Quincy Enunwa, Sammie Coates, and Donte Moncrief. As a Tom Brady owner, I need to rid myself of Matt Stafford. Should I package West, Bernard, and Stafford in a trade? I’m going to go for Doug Martin, probably with Travis Benjamin. My TE is Zach Ertz.

    • You definitely have an excess of possible flex guy in most weeks. So you have the ability to make a move, I just don’t know what you would offer.

      I wouldn’t do Miller plus something for one of those backs. You could deal Marvin Jones plus McKinnon or West for one of those guys but I don’t know if that would get it done.

      This is a prime week for Bernard to have a nice game, similar to last week. I expect something in the rang of 80-90 total yards and another 5-6 catches so if put into a spot to start him he isnt a bad option. I cant remember the exact stat so dont quote me on this but Bernard scores I want to say it was 9 more PPR points per game when the Bengals are underdogs by at least 3 points compared to when they are under 3 points or favored, and they are underdogs by I think 8 this week.

      I would hold onto West if I could I think his trade value doesnt line up with his value to be on your roster. And I know after waiting for a few weeks you might not want to hear it but if you’re going to trade a QB and want to get value its going to most likely have to be Brady. I assume there arent too many people in your league that see Stafford as a significant upgrade in a deal because of how deep QB is.

      If you tried to do that West, Bernard, Stafford deal you might be able to get someone like Mark Ingram if you’re lucky but I would expect more in the Christine Michael, Jordan Howard, Eddie Lacy area if you’re going to get something done. Lower than that, Coleman, Blount, Gore wouldn’t be worth it to me.

      I would assume most of the teams in your league could use Bernard and West but mostly as a bye week filler or as a plug and play RB2/flex so it is going to be hard to get a good level running back.

      If you really want an upper level running back Brady plus West and or McKinnon might be able to get you a McCoy, or DeMarco. Depending on how much the other guy likes Brady maybe even one of the big 3 backs of Bell, Johnson, Zeke but I wouldnt count on it.

Comments are closed.