The quarter point of the season is usually when we like to say we “know” what is going on in the NFL, but we never really do.
This is the time to rethink everything you thought in the preseason, although you really should do this every week.
Who is getting work? Who isn’t? What players are in better situations than they were a month ago?
Below is a redraft of the first round in a 12-team league in my opinion.
- Le’Veon Bell
- David Johnson
- Antonio Brown
- Julio Jones
- A.J. Green
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Lamar Miller
- DeMarco Murray
- LeSean McCoy
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Jordy Nelson
A lot of similarities, but if someone said they were willing to take DeMarco Murray in the first round a month ago you might have called them crazy. That is a prime example of the situation isn’t the same as it was thought a few weeks ago. Murray looks great again and is not giving many touches, or snaps, to everyone’s favorite later round rookie.
Another thing that may surprise is that Nelson is a first round pick. I like other receivers on a game to game basis, but with his bye in the rearview Nelson has an extra game over almost every receiver in the league. Keep that in mind when you are trading for or away players. Players who have already served their bye should be held in a slightly higher regard than those that have not.
Happy trading this week, and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter for Sunday morning active and inactive players as well as in-game injury news and anything else football related. Follow @TheSportsGuy40
RB – Mark Ingram
John Kuhn anyone? Kuhn has four touchdowns this year. Something crazy for anyone that has followed Kuhn throughout the years. Ingram is still getting a solid workload and he will start getting more of those red zone scores as time goes on. He is a pretty safe running back two.
Potential buy low offer: Doug Baldwin for Ingram
RB – Doug Martin
I rarely recommend trading for an injured player, but Martin might have lucked out by being hurt – Tampa Bay hit a tough schedule. Martin should be back a week, maybe two, after the bye. If you somehow have the depth at running back and can be without Martin for 2-3 more weeks, trade for him now a reap the benefits in the playoffs when he gets the Saints twice.
Potential buy low offer: Tevin Coleman for Martin
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
I was wrong in the preseason. Fitzgerald is the week-to-week guy I want in the offense. Brown and Floyd will have their random boom weeks, but Fitzgerald should be the most consistent one. A solid second receiver without the love from a lot of people.
Potential buy low offer: Jeremy Hill for Fitzgerald
WR- Brandin Cooks
The Saints offense (Brees) always seems to struggle outside of a dome. Don’t fret on this; he should be a target hog. Brees will get him the ball and he will start producing more.
Potential buy low offer: Devonta Freeman for Cooks
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
I don’t think Hopkins will be what he was last year, the crazy target monster and top-five receiver. Hopkins will be better than what he has been. He has 223 yards through four games and 113 of them came in one game. The Texans don’t have to force feed him the ball like they did last year with the likes of Lamar Miller and Will Fuller on the team and not as many negative game scripts. Something tells me Hopkins will finish with more than the 1,000-yard pace he is on now. Buy now from a very frustrated owner.
Potential buy low offer: Freeman and Alshon Jeffery for Hopkins
QB – Andrew Luck
He gets beat up behind that offensive line every week. He has a good amount of name value and you might be able to sell him as a top-five quarterback. Right now you are better off rotating quarterbacks weekly and trading Luck to upgrade somewhere else.
Potential sell high offer: Luck for Crowell
RB – Melvin Gordon
This is one where you need to make a determination. The workload is going to be there no matter what. At least 20 touches on a weekly basis regardless of game script, and when they get in close he is going to get a shot to score. What you need to ask yourself is, do you believe in his talent? On a points basis he is a top-five running back, no question – talent might be another question. I personally own Gordon in a league and will be shopping him for running back one value, and if I can’t get that I will hold.
Potential sell high offer: Gordon for Jordy Nelson
RB – Matt Jones
The Redskins aren’t terrible, but there aren’t going to be too many games where Jones will be allowed to get 22 carries and run the clock out against a terrible defense. Jones is more of a first running back off the bench than a guy you want in your lineup on a week-to-week basis.
Potential sell high offer: Jones for Julian Edelman
WR – Michael Crabtree
I might be crazy in saying this (sarcasm), but I don’t think he scores three touchdowns every week, and I don’t think Amari Cooper will finish the year without a touchdown. Right now Crabrtee is producing like a high-end number two receiver when he is close to a low-end second receiver or flex.
Potential sell high offer: Crabtree for Jordan Howard
WR – T.Y. Hilton
I am concerned for Andrew Luck’s well-being every time I watch him try to do something behind that horrid offensive line. Hilton’s value is tied almost directly to Luck’s health. Back-to-back big games from Hilton might let you sell him as a number one receiver.
Potential sell high offer: Hilton for Rob Gronkowski
TE – Jimmy Graham
Jimmy looks like he is near what he was in 2015 when he was an early round pick. It depends on the owner how much you might have to give up for him. In a year with a depressing tight end landscape Graham might be back as a top-five option.
Potential buy high offer: Frank Gore and Eric Ebron for Graham
RB – Giovani Bernard
It isn’t going to happen for Bernard. I love him as a real life player, but with Hill healthy the best you can hope for is Theo Riddick type value. The carries are rarely there and the catches aren’t enough most weeks. If you can get someone, maybe the Hill owner, to bite on him as a low-end running back two it might benefit you in the long run.
Potential sell low: Bernard for Jordan Howard
Looking for additional buy/sell trade advice or waiver wire pick-ups, head on over to Fantasy Rundown.