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Buy Low/Sell High Week 4

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The quarter point of the season is usually when we like to say we “know” what is going on in the NFL, but we never really do. 

This is the time to rethink everything you thought in the preseason, although you really should do this every week.

Who is getting work? Who isn’t? What players are in better situations than they were a month ago?

Below is a redraft of the first round in a 12-team league in my opinion.

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. David Johnson
  3. Antonio Brown
  4. Julio Jones
  5. A.J. Green
  6. Odell Beckham Jr.
  7. Ezekiel Elliott
  8. Lamar Miller
  9. DeMarco Murray
  10. LeSean McCoy
  11. DeAndre Hopkins
  12. Jordy Nelson

A lot of similarities, but if someone said they were willing to take DeMarco Murray in the first round a month ago you might have called them crazy. That is a prime example of the situation isn’t the same as it was thought a few weeks ago. Murray looks great again and is not giving many touches, or snaps, to everyone’s favorite later round rookie.

Another thing that may surprise is that Nelson is a first round pick. I like other receivers on a game to game basis, but with his bye in the rearview Nelson has an extra game over almost every receiver in the league. Keep that in mind when you are trading for or away players. Players who have already served their bye should be held in a slightly higher regard than those that have not.

Happy trading this week, and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter for Sunday morning active and inactive players as well as in-game injury news and anything else football related.

Buy Low

RB – Mark Ingram

John Kuhn anyone? Kuhn has four touchdowns this year. Something crazy for anyone that has followed Kuhn throughout the years. Ingram is still getting a solid workload and he will start getting more of those red zone scores as time goes on. He is a pretty safe running back two.

Potential buy low offer: Doug Baldwin for Ingram

RB – Doug Martin

I rarely recommend trading for an injured player, but Martin might have lucked out by being hurt – Tampa Bay hit a tough schedule. Martin should be back a week, maybe two, after the bye. If you somehow have the depth at running back and can be without Martin for 2-3 more weeks, trade for him now a reap the benefits in the playoffs when he gets the Saints twice.

Potential buy low offer: Tevin Coleman for Martin

WR – Larry Fitzgerald

I was wrong in the preseason. Fitzgerald is the week-to-week guy I want in the offense. Brown and Floyd will have their random boom weeks, but Fitzgerald should be the most consistent one. A solid second receiver without the love from a lot of people.

Potential buy low offer: Jeremy Hill for Fitzgerald

WR- Brandin Cooks

The Saints offense (Brees) always seems to struggle outside of a dome. Don’t fret on this; he should be a target hog. Brees will get him the ball and he will start producing more.

Potential buy low offer: Devonta Freeman for Cooks

WR – DeAndre Hopkins

I don’t think Hopkins will be what he was last year, the crazy target monster and top-five receiver. Hopkins will be better than what he has been. He has 223 yards through four games and 113 of them came in one game. The Texans don’t have to force feed him the ball like they did last year with the likes of Lamar Miller and Will Fuller on the team and not as many negative game scripts. Something tells me Hopkins will finish with more than the 1,000-yard pace he is on now. Buy now from a very frustrated owner.

Potential buy low offer: Freeman and Alshon Jeffery for Hopkins



Sell High

QB – Andrew Luck

He gets beat up behind that offensive line every week. He has a good amount of name value and you might be able to sell him as a top-five quarterback. Right now you are better off rotating quarterbacks weekly and trading Luck to upgrade somewhere else.

Potential sell high offer: Luck for Crowell

RB – Melvin Gordon

This is one where you need to make a determination. The workload is going to be there no matter what. At least 20 touches on a weekly basis regardless of game script, and when they get in close he is going to get a shot to score. What you need to ask yourself is, do you believe in his talent? On a points basis he is a top-five running back, no question – talent might be another question. I personally own Gordon in a league and will be shopping him for running back one value, and if I can’t get that I will hold.

Potential sell high offer: Gordon for Jordy Nelson

RB – Matt Jones

The Redskins aren’t terrible, but there aren’t going to be too many games where Jones will be allowed to get 22 carries and run the clock out against a terrible defense. Jones is more of a first running back off the bench than a guy you want in your lineup on a week-to-week basis.

Potential sell high offer:  Jones for Julian Edelman

WR – Michael Crabtree

I might be crazy in saying this (sarcasm), but I don’t think he scores three touchdowns every week, and I don’t think Amari Cooper will finish the year without a touchdown. Right now Crabrtee is producing like a high-end number two receiver when he is close to a low-end second receiver or flex.

Potential sell high offer: Crabtree for Jordan Howard

WR – T.Y. Hilton

I am concerned for Andrew Luck’s well-being every time I watch him try to do something behind that horrid offensive line. Hilton’s value is tied almost directly to Luck’s health. Back-to-back big games from Hilton might let you sell him as a number one receiver.

Potential sell high offer: Hilton for Rob Gronkowski

Buy High

TE – Jimmy Graham

Jimmy looks like he is near what he was in 2015 when he was an early round pick. It depends on the owner how much you might have to give up for him. In a year with a depressing tight end landscape Graham might be back as a top-five option.

Potential buy high offer: Frank Gore and Eric Ebron for Graham

Sell Low

RB – Giovani Bernard

It isn’t going to happen for Bernard. I love him as a real life player, but with Hill healthy the best you can hope for is Theo Riddick type value. The carries are rarely there and the catches aren’t enough most weeks. If you can get someone, maybe the Hill owner, to bite on him as a low-end running back two it might benefit you in the long run.

Potential sell low: Bernard for Jordan Howard

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
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32 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High Week 4

  1. Thanks for the detailed explanation on last week’s Buy Low… I am wondering if the TE position would be a big enough upgrade to warrant moving Charles though. The Martin owner also has Graham. Probably not, but i figured it could be an option.

    • Only tight end I would really be paying up for that much is Gronk. I think Jimmy is back but I wouldnt risk dealing Charles for Graham at this point. If both are healthy and starting from here on out I want Charles over Graham.

      • Just to clarify (i realized i worded that poorly).. I was thinking Martin and Graham for Charles. I have a feeling it’s the same answer.. but the idea of Martin’s good playoff schedule is nice.

        • Depends on if you think your running back position can handle another 2 weeks down a running back. Martin is almost a lock to miss this week then goes on a bye the week after.

          The value isnt bad but it isnt a trade that has me jumping to do it. Typically if I am not jumping to do a trade I just stand pat. Cant fault if you want to do it though. The value isnt bad

          • Yeah, I decided against it. Just worried about Charles durability and I’m having trouble getting ware from his owner so the thought of Martin’s playoff schedule caught my eye.

            I’m looking to trade some pieces to make room for picking up a QB this week. I see the AJ green owner is this at rb with Rawls and D’Angelo Williams losing value… I’m thinking of trading Robinson and McKinnon for him… Or do u think I’d have to include Charles?

          • You might be able to do that. Depends on how much of a downgrade he sees Robinson. Preseason they were very close. Robinsons hasn’t had the year Green is having so far but the running back should help him in the situation he is in.

            I wouldnt include Charles in that deal

  2. Edelman for Ingram? What you think? Thanks.

    • Its an even deal. I would probably take Ingram just based on hard running backs are to come by, assuming that you have another viable receiver to replace Edelman.

      If you want to second guess it at all this is Edelman’s statline in his last 16 games with Brady 176 targets, 119 catches, 1355 yards, 10 TDs. And with rumor of Gronk’s injury being more serious than being let on he could get even more.

      That being said I still want a good running back that is going to get touches. They are so hard to come by these days. Also note that Ingram has his bye this week.

  3. Thanks. I need rb help, lik we all do. I have waiver 1. Powell is available, but another team dropped Foster. Is either worthy of using my #1 waiver on? Or do I save it?

    • The Dolphins have a terrible O-line and Foster might be out 3 more weeks. That being said if you can wait for Foster I would add him. If you need someone more immediately I would go Powell but when Foster returns he is probably a high end RB2 even with the terrible line.

      So essentially if you can wait and it not hurt you I would add Foster with that claim. If you desperately need someone to start this week or next you almost have to use it on Powell. If you are somewhat in the middle just let both pass.

      For example I am in 3 leagues. In 2 of them I would 100% go for Foster right now because I have the depth to keep him as just a bench back for 3 weeks. In another league I need to start someone soon and I would probably go Powell because of how injuries have hit my RBs.

  4. So, regardless of the short or long term, using a #1 waiver priority on either of these rb will work? I would have to drop booker.
    Qb Rivers
    Wr Landry
    Wr M. Jones
    Wr T. Williams
    Rb Miller
    Rb Sims
    Te Rudolph
    Flex J. White
    Bench D. Adams, R. Woods, Yeldon, Jennings, Eifert, D. Booker
    IR Moncrief
    Lost players early this season like K. Allen and this is my worst team this season. I don’t know what I was thinking draft day. Anyway, hopefully I can turn this around. Thanks.

  5. Thinking of trying to “buy low’ on OBJ with Robinson… The owner hasn’t been responsive to other trades for dez… But I figure I should try… Who do u like better ROS?

  6. Beckham. Threw a handful of Beckham stats out on Twitter. Nearly identical numbers to open last season. Only difference to this point are the 2 TDs last year and 0 this year.

    https://twitter.com/TheSportsGuy40

  7. Is Golden Tate worth anything at this point? A stash to see if he turns it around?

    • I dont think so. In last year’s “good” season he had 90 catches and just 813 yards with 6 TDs. Outside of full PPR last year he wasnt good and there is no sign of that changing this season.

      If its an end of the bench flier it cant hurt but if you have to drop something of value let him be someone elses problem

  8. What’s your thoughts on J. Stewart? Is he a target to trade for?

    • Not to me. I noted with Martin I dont like trading for injured guys. Main reason is because there is so much unknown.

      I dont think Stewart has the upside someone like Martin has. If you can buy him as middle/low end RB3 sure I would buy but I dont know if the owner would sell at that price. That is something like Bernard, Duke Johnson type value. I couldnt see paying more for him like a McKinnon or Matt Jones when the output might not be much different and those guys arent hurt.

      • He offered a trade of Matt Jones for wr J. Brown. Brown is my wr 5 behind Hopkins, Evans, Landry, J. Matthews and ahead of floundering G. Tate. My rbs are sims, white, Bernard, d. Williams, Booker. His are M. Jones, McKinnon, R. Matthews, Stewart, C. Artis Payne. So, I wanted to know if I should consider negotiations. FYI Brady is my qb and Rudolph and Eifert te.
        As always thanks for the assist.

        • I dont love Matt Jones but it doesnt mean I wouldnt own him.

          I think Brown is about to turn his season around and take over as the number 2 for Floyd. You need a running back though and that is solid value, especially with Brown so low in your WR depth chart.

          I would do it. I cant decide if I like Jones or McKinnon more. I would do it for either one. Both of those guys can help your running backs.

  9. In a PPR league, Allen Robinson for C.J. Anderson? (I would be getting C.J.). My other WRs are Marvin Jones, A.J. Green, Donte Moncrief, Willie Snead and Travis Benjamin. Other RBs are Gio Bernard, Lamar Miller, Jerick McKinnon, Chris Ivory, and Charles Sims. My TE is Ertz, his is Kelce. Should I make him sweeten the pot by swapping the 2?

    • I would rather have Robinson but its pretty close. Youre not really in a spot where you are desperate for RB depth because you have Miller, Mckinnon, Bernard. At WR with Green, Robinson, Jones you’re pretty set.

      My philosophy usually is if its 2 players of similar value take the running back. It is so hard to find reliable options at that position.

      How would the trade change your starting lineup? Do you start a flex or is it a 3 WR league?

      • Yeah, but you even said Bernard sucks. It is a 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST league. I just picked up Enunwa and Terrance West and am poised to drop Ivory to make room for a D/ST, unless I can Do a 2 for 1 trade.

        • Its not that I think Bernard sucks. Its that he just isnt going to get the work. Talent wise he could easily be a top-10 back if he got 15-18 touches. But you are relying on him as an RB3 so essentially just a bye week filler and that is fine compared to needing him to start every week.

          This one seems to come down to which guy would you rather start. Now that you grabbed Enunwa and West you added extra depth to each position. The two guys in the trade are pretty much just being swapped out for each other.

          Anderson, Miller McKinnon, Green, Marvin
          or
          Miller, McKinnon, Green, Robinson, Marvin

          I keep going back and forth on this. Because you want to start as many receivers as possible in a PPR league. End of season Robinson is probably going to end up scoring more points. Which would make me want to keep Robinson. But I like adding Anderson and deepening that RB group.

          I think my final call would be to stand pat and keep Robinson. Even though your team would have to start Bernard or West when Miller or McKinnon are hurt or on bye I think that wont kill you in those those 1-2 weeks and Robinson will score more rest of season.

          Maybe try to package one of Bernard/West and Enunwa/Moncrief for like a Gore, Blount, Howard. That is a lower key way to sure up your running back position if something happens to McKinnon or Anderson.

        • In a complete value vacuum in PPR Robinson > Anderson
          When it comes to how your team would look in a bye Anderson > Robinson
          Normal starting lineup Robinson > Anderson

          Its a really tough call but I think I would go with Robinson which is not normal for how I typically run my teams, like I noted earlier on going RB over WR when its close. PPR changes that philosophy. Most leagues I play in are non-PPR.

  10. Another owner in my league is short on RBs this week with a lot of players having a bye… Thinking of dealing 2 RBs to him. Possible targets are c Michaels or Doug Baldwin. Would u offer McKinnon + bernard/Powell for either of those guys? Thanks!

    • I would do McKinnon plus either Bernard or Powell assuming you can handle losing the RB depth. I like Baldwin a tad more but both Michael and Baldwin are good options to get.

  11. I was just offered Lamar Miller for Locket, Royal, and Howard.

    It’s a return yards league so Lockett has top-15 value if he starts returning kicks like last year but he’s been useless so far.

    Thoughts?

    • Thats a definite accept for me. Howard is top-15 right now but would assume once Langford or even Carey comes back he wont control 90 plus percent of the RB touches. Still should be getting 75 percent but Miller is locked into that workhorse role and he will start scoring touchdowns.

  12. Which side of this trade wins? Eli Manning for Bortles + Snead

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