Daily Fantasy Quick Hits – September 30

Welcome again everybody!  We are winding down the MLB season and also winding down the daily fantasy season.  At this point we have to really be aware of teams that are resting guys for the playoffs (like the Cubs) while also doing our regular analysis.  It is not the easiest task and it is really important to check the MLB lineups once they come in.  In addition, teams are less likely to stick with long rain delays at this time of year if the game does not have playoff implications, so being on top of weather is crucial too.  Let’s see what we came up with for today.

As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.

Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:

  1. Brian Dozier vs. Carlos Rodon – 6/12 with 3 homers, a double and a walk
  2. Kike Hernandez vs. Madison Bumgarner – 6/12 with 2 doubles and 2 homers (and a 1.000 BABIP as he has also struck out 6/12 times against MadBum)
  3. Gregory Polanco vs. Carlos Martinez – 10/19 with 3 doubles, a homer and 7 walks
  4. Jayson Werth vs. Andrew Cashner – 6/11 with a homer, a double and 3 walks

Stacks to Target:

  1. Brewers at Rockies – We get one final weekend to enjoy the Coors Field fantasy goodness.
  2. Padres vs. Braden Shipley – While the Padres are not playing for anything, this is one team that has given its September call-ups a chance and with pretty good results.  After ranking at or near the bottom of every offensive category all year, San Diego is 10th in runs scored in its last 7 games.  Hunter Renfroe has been tagging the ball and other young guys have been solid as well.  Shipley really struggles at home with a 5.96 ERA and .406 wOBA.  I like the Padres for some good production tonight.
  3. Reds vs. Jake Buchanan – I almost wrote that the Reds were facing James Buchanan, but alas, the 15th President will not toe the bump tonight.  Instead, the Cubs are trotting out a pitcher who had a 4.34 ERA with a mediocre 17.3% K-Rate at AAA.  Their all-world defense will also not likely be seeing the field, so don’t count on that .250 BABIP that the Cubs’ pitchers routinely get.  The Reds have been hitting the ball well recently, ranking 10th in OPS in September.  I like them to beat up on the Cubs’ JV team.

Pitchers of the Day:

  1. Madison Bumgarner vs. Dodgers – Bumgarner is playing for something, so you know he won’t be lifted after 60 pitches and that is a positive.  In addition, the Dodgers have been abysmal against lefties this year with a .278 wOBA and 22.6% K-Rate.  Bumgarner held them to just one hit over 7 innings with 10 strikeouts two turns ago.  Maybe he won’t dominate to that level, but he should be excellent again tonight.
  2. Robert Gsellman vs. Phillies – Gsellman is another pitcher playing for something which boosts his value to me.  Moreover, Gsellman has been solid recently allowing 2 ER or less in his last 3 starts and in 4 of his last 5.  Included in that good run is his last start against the Phillies just last week where he held them to 3 hits and 2 walks with no runs over 7 innings while striking out 8.  Gsellman is not that expensive but should pay off today.

Weather to Target or Avoid

  • Orioles at Yankees – chance of rain
  • Blue Jays at Red Sox – chance of rain
  • Twins at White Sox – chance of rain

Platoon Split Hitters

  • Matt Kemp vs. Daniel Norris – Kemp continues to be a lefty killing machine with a .398 wOBA and 151 wRC+.
  • Kendrys Morales vs. Ryan Merritt – Morales is much better hitting from the right side where he sports a .392 wOBA and 146 wRC+.

Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil

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Written by 

Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.