Howdy folks! It will be a busy night for me as I will be flipping between the Patriots/Texans game and some good September pennant races – but only after I get home from my own baseball game which finishes at 10:00. During the day (while I work) I will be following some of the PGA’s Tour Championship golf. Will I have daily fantasy exposure to all of said events? Of course I will = That’s how I roll. There are 10 baseball games on the docket tonight, and Las Vegas has set the run total to between 8 and 9 for each game. That means that it is up to us to research and find edges. Good thing you have me to help you out. Let’s see what we came up with.
As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Nolan Arenado vs. Brett Anderson – 5/10 with a homer
- Mike Napoli vs. Jason Vargas – 12/32 with 4 homers, 2 doubles and 5 walks
- Mike Trout vs. Mike Fiers – 3/10 with a homer, 2 doubles and 2 walks
- Jordy Mercer vs. Chase Anderson – 5/10 with a double
Stacks to Target:
- Mets vs. Adam Morgan – I am a platoon splits guy, so Morgan is someone who I like to pick on. His future in the big leagues is likely as a lefty specialist because righties kill this guy to the tune of a .385 wOBA. The Mets’ best hitter is right-handed and they have good switch hitters at the top of the shop as well. The last time the Mets faced Morgan they laid a 6 spot on him in 5 innings on August 26. I like Reyes, Cabrera, Cespedes, TJ Rivera and d’Arnaud as a tasty stack.
- Pirates vs. Chase Anderson – The Pirates have traditionally liked facing Chase as they have a .315/.376/.516 line against him. Anderson has had some success against Pittsburgh this season, but I expect his luck to change tonight. The Pirates sport a pretty righty heavy lineup and Anderson allows a .386 wOBA to right-handed bats. Look for nice games from McCutchen, Kang, S.Rodriguez and Cervelli as the Pirates roll over Anderson.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Seth Lugo vs. Phillies – There is some good news and bad news with respect to Lugo. First the good news: Lugo has a 2.35 ERA on the season, a 2.22 ERA and .261 wOBA at home, no more than 3 ER allowed in any start this year, and he faces the Phillies who have a .296 wOBA and 23.1% K-Rate versus righties. Now the bad news: Lugo has a .235 BABIP allowed which is a huge aberration from his minor league numbers and also doesn’t jibe with his 38.9% hard contact allowed, and he also has a sky-high 84.6% strand rate. Will Lugo come back down to earth? Most assuredly so. Will it be tonight? I don’t think the Phillies’ Little Sisters of the Poor type lineup will be the one to hand Lugo his first rough outing. At only $6,700 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel, I will roll with Lugo and hope that the coach does not turn into a pumpkin until next time.
- David Price vs. Orioles – The Orioles are underratedly terrible against left-handed pitching with a .299 team wOBA and 21.8% K-Rate. Price has been in good form in the 2nd half with the Yankees breaking his streak of 7 straight quality starts in his last outing. Nonetheless, Price has a rock solid 3.30 ERA in the 2nd half. In his last outing against the O’s only a couple of weeks ago, Price held them to 2 hits (though both were homers) and no walks in 8 innings while striking out 9. He is not prohibitively expensive and is my favorite pitcher on the board.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- None! Play ball!
Platoon Split Hitters
- Brandon Guyer vs. Jason Vargas – Guyer is a great platoon guy with a .436 wOBA and 179 wRC+ against lefties.
- Buster Posey vs. Christian Friedrich – It has been a down year offensively for Posey, but he is still hitting lefties well with a .386 wOBA and 147 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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