Hello y’all! Today will be one of those days where my remote control will get a lot of action. I am a big football guy and will definitely be watching some action on the gridiron today (here are my DFS football picks), but I love me some good September baseball as well. There are pennant races aplenty and some good value daily fantasy picks on today’s slate. So without further ado, here they are.
As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Anthony Rizzo vs. Wily Peralta – 16/32 with 7 homers, 3 doubles and 4 walks
- Kevin Kiermaier vs. Wade Miley – 4/10 with 2 homers, a double and a walk
- Carlos Beltran vs. Ross Detwiler – 5/11 with a homer and a walk
- Carlos Sanchez vs. Danny Duffy – 6/11 with a double and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Cubs vs. Wily Peralta – The Cubs as a collective have had great success against Peralta with a .316/.388/.627 line, led by Anthony Rizzo, who as you can see above has absolutely destroyed the Brewers’ righty. Don’t be fooled by Peralta’s better form in the 2nd half (3.50 ERA), his 2nd half BABIP is .250 and his 2nd half LOB% is 81.7% which are flukishly high and low respectively considering his 34.2% 2nd half hard contact allowed. I like the Cubbies for a big day.
- Orioles vs. Jake Odorizzi – This is a tough match-up for Odorizzi who has pretty severe reverse splits and allows a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Orioles mash righties despite having a righty heavy lineup with a .342 team wOBA and .206 team ISO. Odorizzi faced Baltimore earlier this month and went only 4 innings with 6 hits, 3 walks, seven earned runs and two strikeouts. I could see a similar performance today against the Orioles who need wins to stay in playoff position.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Robbie Ray vs. Dodgers – The Dodgers are just not very good against left-handed pitching with a .280 wOBA and a 22.2% K-Rate. Ray is somewhat inconsistent, but he is still a strikeout machine with a 25.5% K-Rate on the season and over 200 strikeouts. This is a low floor, high ceiling play that I would reserve for GPPs, but I will have over 50% GPP exposure.
- Kyle Hendricks vs. Brewers – The Brewers have not traditionally hit Hendricks well with a .184/.237/.272 collective line, but no one has hit Hendricks well recently. The Cubs’ righty has a 1.33 2nd half ERA and has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 straight starts. His K-Rate is also steadily improving as it sits at a very strong 24.0% for the 2nd half of the year. Milwaukee strikes out at a 25.4% clip against righties and should be in for a long day. Hendricks is a must for cash games, but I will not be shying away from him in GPPs either.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- National at Braves – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters
- Logan Forsythe vs. Wade Miley – Forsythe has not been quite as good against southpaws, but still sports an impressive .370 wOBA and 136 wRC+.
- Adrian Beltre vs. Ross Detwiler – Beltre is a must start against soft-tossing lefties with a .418 wOBA and 161 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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