Good morning everybody! The first Sunday of the football season is usually one of the best sports days on the calendar, and it certainly did not disappoint yesterday as there were some nail-biter football games, a thrilling US Open tennis finals, an excellent 3rd leg of the golf playoffs, and of course some fine September baseball. Today there are some Monday night football games, but the focus (at least for me) returns fully to baseball. The pitching slate today is kind of ugly, so I would focus on the hitters you like and then (if you make multiple lineups) pivot different pitchers around your favorite stacks. Happy grinding!
As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Chris Coghlan vs. Mike Leake – 11/19 with 4 doubles and 2 homers
- Rajai Davis vs. Miguel Gonzalez – 6/14 with 3 homers and a double
- Nelson Cruz vs. Ricky Nolasco – 4/12 with 3 homers, a double and a walk
- Rougned Odor vs. Doug Fister – 5/14 with 2 homers and 2 doubles
Stacks to Target:
- Red Sox vs. Wade Miley – Miley has not been very effective this year, and has especially had trouble with right-handed hitters who are smacking him to the tune of a .363 wOBA. The Red Sox have some scorching hot hitters from the right side of the plate including Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Add two of the best hitters in MLB against lefties this year (Chris Young and Sandy Leon) to the mix along with MVP candidate Mookie Betts and you have the makings of a great stack.
- Nationals vs. Rafael Montero – Montero has really struggled to find the plate with a walk rate of 20.4%, which is even higher than his K-Rate of 18.5%. The Nationals are among the most patient teams in the majors, ranking 7th in walks, and should get Montero’s pitch count up early. When he is in the game, Montero is getting brutalized by lefties who have a .415 wOBA against him. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy should have a fun day.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Gerritt Cole vs. Phillies – I struggle to figure out the DraftKings pricing algorithm sometimes. Cole is 3rd on the slate in SIERA over the last two years with a 3.58 mark, behind only David Price and Carlos Carrasco, yet he is priced as a mid-range pitcher today at $7,700. This is despite getting a sweetheart matchup against the Phillies today who have a .296 wOBA and 22.3% K-Rate versus righties. At this price, I don’t see how Cole does not make value and he is a must play in DraftKings cash games.
- Jose De Leon vs. Yankees – De Leon is another guy whose price tag is low, although with him it is more of the unknown factor than some glitch with the pricing algorithm. While the Yankees are not a high strikeout team, De Leon averaged over a 10 K/9 every year since 2013 in the minor leagues and combined that with good control. This year at AAA his K/9 was 11.57 while his BB/9 was 2.08. He has brought this over to the majors as he had 9 strikeouts and nary a walk in his first start. De Leon has a high floor, even with a somewhat difficult opponent, and I will have 50% exposure in GPPs today.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- None! Play Ball!
Platoon Split Hitters
- Robbie Grossman vs. Daniel Norris – Grossman is a switch-hitter who loves facing lefties with a .446 wOBA and 182 wRC+.
- Sandy Leon vs. Wade Miley – Leon is another switch-hitter who is stronger from the right-side with an amazing .482 wOBA and 204 wRC+ on the season against southpaws.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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