It’s hard to make a complete 180 after one week of football. If it was October and a lot of these performances happened no one would care. I am not one to overreact to a one week sample, but in the sprint that is the NFL season you can’t wait five weeks to change your mind either.
The trades you make in week one probably carry the most risk of any other week in the season. We know so little at this point, but make the right move and that player can impact your team for the remainder of the season.
Trades early in the season are hard to complete because many people want to value players where they drafted them, and if you’re trying to buy low or sell high you are not going with draft day value.
Always a reminder to follow me on Twitter for game day news and updates. Especially if you play with a first come first serve style waivers system.
RB – Adrian Peterson
Here is some hard-hitting fantasy advice: Adrian Peterson is a good football player. There was a lot of concern with Peterson coming into the season, age, previous workload, and then losing Teddy Bridgewater. Peterson did not put up numbers that were promising, but he is still a top-five running back. The touches will always be there and it doesn’t take much for him to break one. Also, don’t expect the vikings to score many defensive touchdowns.
Potential buy low offer: CJ Anderson and Tajae Sharpe for Peterson
RB – Jamaal Charles
How can a player who didn’t play and has whispers of not playing next week be someone you want? His value is plummeting. Spencer Ware’s huge game also has people panicking that Charles is going to lose a lot of touches. I still think this is Charles’ backfield when he returns, and while he probably does give touches to Ware, Charles should still get 15 touches per game.
Potential buy low offer: Eric Decker for Charles
RB – Doug Martin
The Falcons had a surprisingly good defense against the run last season so I am not overly concerned that Martin didn’t run wild. Take the 18 carries as a sign that the Bucs want to give him work even in a game that Winston is rolling in.
Potential buy low offer: Amari Cooper for Martin
WR – Brandon Marshall
The three for 32 line isn’t exciting, especially because they threw 35 times, but he had some red zone targets that he didn’t score on and I can’t see Enunwa having too many more games like this one.
Potential buy low offer: Melvin Gordon and Jordan Matthews for Marshall
WR – Dez Bryant
He didn’t do much, one catch for eight yards, but Dak looked capable. What I do worry about is a lot of the pass plays were looking at short crossing routes, and that isn’t what Dez typically runs. He did get a few end zone looks and a touchdown correctly overturned. I would assume in the future the Cowboys will get Dez more involved in the screen passing game and he will catch some deep balls. I would be grabbing Cole Beasley in deeper leagues and Jason Witten if you need a tight end.
Potential buy low offer: DeMarco Murray and Doug Baldwin for Bryant
QB – Drew Brees
Anytime I can sell a quarterback for a high-end player I do it. Take a look at the quarterback scoring leaders. It’s a position that can be streamed, and if you can turn Brees plus something into a significant upgrade do it. It is usually hard to find a taker on a quarterback because everyone usually has one they are at least ok with, but a Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers, Blake Bortles owner might be panicking.
Potential sell high offer: Brees and Moncrief for Alshon Jeffery
RB – Melvin Gordon
Take a look at the snap distribution between him and Woodhead. I’ll save you the effort, Woodhad had 50 snaps to Gordon’s 23. This also came in a game that the Chargers were leading almost the entire time. Gordon did punch in two touchdowns, but he received a touch on 61% of his snaps. That is not sustainable.
Potential sell high offer: Gordon for Sammy Watkins
RB – Jeremy Langford
He dominated the backfield touches, but I wasn’t impressed with how he looked. The fact that I am calling a 63 total yard game and a touchdown a sell high should tell you something. The matchup was rough, but I was always worried about Langford’s talent impacting his workload. Don’t be surprised if he is splitting carries a lot more in a few weeks.
Potential sell high offer: Langford for Moncrief
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
He didn’t look great in limited work, and I regret buying in at a first round value after the preseason, I originally had him pegged as a mid second round pick. This really isn’t a sell high on what he did this week, but what he was perceived as in the preseason. I am not panicking on Elliott because he did get a ton of work this week and I do think better days are in store. If you do have someone in your league who was always buying the hype as an early first round pick, or even number one overall pick, ship Elliott off and grab Morris who looked a lot better with what he was given.
Potential sell high offer: Elliott for DeAndre Hopkins
RB – TJ Yeldon
He didn’t blow me away this week when he was handed all of the work with Chris Ivory in the hospital. Ivory will be back at some point and he will be splitting time. Yeldon might be the better of the two backs, but being on the better half of a committee doesn’t mean you are a great option.
Potential sell high offer: Yeldon for Jeremy Maclin
RB – Devonta Freeman
He split snaps almost evenly with Tevin Coleman. The offseason worry seems to be legitimate. Coleman not only shared snaps, but he looked a lot more explosive when he touched the ball. This looks like a complete committee to me. If you can get late second round type value for Freeman its time to sell.
I would sell him for: Eddie Lacy, Mark Ingram
RB – Matt Forte
The concern of Powell stealing a lot of work was over exaggerated as Forte saw 22 carries to Powell’s four. Forte has never been a player to miss a lot of games; he only missed eight games during his career and has never missed more than four in a season. Forte could do something similar to what Ivory did last season with more receptions. I have a feeling a lot of owners are going to want to sell high after this week. Buy him if as long as you don’t have to pay top-15 running back value.
I would take him over: Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill
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