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Buy Low/Sell High: Week 1

Buy Low Sell High LogoIt’s hard to make a complete 180 after one week of football. If it was October and a lot of these performances happened no one would care. I am not one to overreact to a one week sample, but in the sprint that is the NFL season you can’t wait five weeks to change your mind either.

The trades you make in week one probably carry the most risk of any other week in the season. We know so little at this point, but make the right move and that player can impact your team for the remainder of the season.

Trades early in the season are hard to complete because many people want to value players where they drafted them, and if you’re trying to buy low or sell high you are not going with draft day value.

Always a reminder to follow me on Twitter for game day news and updates. Especially if you play with a first come first serve style waivers system.

Buy Low

RB – Adrian Peterson

Here is some hard-hitting fantasy advice: Adrian Peterson is a good football player. There was a lot of concern with Peterson coming into the season, age, previous workload, and then losing Teddy Bridgewater. Peterson did not put up numbers that were promising, but he is still a top-five running back. The touches will always be there and it doesn’t take much for him to break one. Also, don’t expect the vikings to score many defensive touchdowns.

Potential buy low offer: CJ Anderson and Tajae Sharpe for Peterson

RB – Jamaal Charles

How can a player who didn’t play and has whispers of not playing next week be someone you want? His value is plummeting. Spencer Ware’s huge game also has people panicking that Charles is going to lose a lot of touches. I still think this is Charles’ backfield when he returns, and while he probably does give touches to Ware, Charles should still get 15 touches per game.

Potential buy low offer: Eric Decker for Charles

RB – Doug Martin

The Falcons had a surprisingly good defense against the run last season so I am not overly concerned that Martin didn’t run wild. Take the 18 carries as a sign that the Bucs want to give him work even in a game that Winston is rolling in.

Potential buy low offer: Amari Cooper for Martin

WR – Brandon Marshall

The three for 32 line isn’t exciting, especially because they threw 35 times, but he had some red zone targets that he didn’t score on and I can’t see Enunwa having too many more games like this one.

Potential buy low offer: Melvin Gordon and Jordan Matthews for Marshall

WR – Dez Bryant

He didn’t do much, one catch for eight yards, but Dak looked capable. What I do worry about is a lot of the pass plays were looking at short crossing routes, and that isn’t what Dez typically runs. He did get a few end zone looks and a touchdown correctly overturned. I would assume in the future the Cowboys will get Dez more involved in the screen passing game and he will catch some deep balls. I would be grabbing Cole Beasley in deeper leagues and Jason Witten if you need a tight end.

Potential buy low offer: DeMarco Murray and Doug Baldwin for Bryant



Sell High

QB – Drew Brees

Anytime I can sell a quarterback for a high-end player I do it. Take a look at the quarterback scoring leaders. It’s a position that can be streamed, and if you can turn Brees plus something into a significant upgrade do it. It is usually hard to find a taker on a quarterback because everyone usually has one they are at least ok with, but a Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers, Blake Bortles owner might be panicking.

Potential sell high offer: Brees and Moncrief for Alshon Jeffery 

RB – Melvin Gordon

Take a look at the snap distribution between him and Woodhead. I’ll save you the effort, Woodhad had 50 snaps to Gordon’s 23. This also came in a game that the Chargers were leading almost the entire time. Gordon did punch in two touchdowns, but he received a touch on 61% of his snaps. That is not sustainable.

Potential sell high offer: Gordon for Sammy Watkins

RB – Jeremy Langford

He dominated the backfield touches, but I wasn’t impressed with how he looked. The fact that I am calling a 63 total yard game and a touchdown a sell high should tell you something. The matchup was rough, but I was always worried about Langford’s talent impacting his workload. Don’t be surprised if he is splitting carries a lot more in a few weeks.

Potential sell high offer: Langford for Moncrief

RB – Ezekiel Elliott

He didn’t look great in limited work, and I regret buying in at a first round value after the preseason, I originally had him pegged as a mid second round pick. This really isn’t a sell high on what he did this week, but what he was perceived as in the preseason. I am not panicking on Elliott because he did get a ton of work this week and I do think better days are in store. If you do have someone in your league who was always buying the hype as an early first round pick, or even number one overall pick, ship Elliott off and grab Morris who looked a lot better with what he was given.

Potential sell high offer: Elliott for DeAndre Hopkins

RB – TJ Yeldon

He didn’t blow me away this week when he was handed all of the work with Chris Ivory in the hospital. Ivory will be back at some point and he will be splitting time. Yeldon might be the better of the two backs, but being on the better half of a committee doesn’t mean you are a great option.

Potential sell high offer: Yeldon for Jeremy Maclin 

Sell Low

RB – Devonta Freeman

He split snaps almost evenly with Tevin Coleman. The offseason worry seems to be legitimate. Coleman not only shared snaps, but he looked a lot more explosive when he touched the ball. This looks like a complete committee to me. If you can get late second round type value for Freeman its time to sell.

I would sell him for: Eddie Lacy, Mark Ingram

Buy High

RB – Matt Forte

The concern of Powell stealing a lot of work was over exaggerated as Forte saw 22 carries to Powell’s four. Forte has never been a player to miss a lot of games; he only missed eight games during his career and has never missed more than four in a season. Forte could do something similar to what Ivory did last season with more receptions. I have a feeling a lot of owners are going to want to sell high after this week. Buy him if as long as you don’t have to pay top-15 running back value.

I would take him over: Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

23 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High: Week 1

  1. What would be a good offer for Marshall and Forte (have same owner)? After losing Allen, I’m pretty worried about my team…is Miller and Evans too much? I’d also like to take a stab at Bryant and/or Yeldon (both have another but same owner)
    QB: Marcus Mariota
    RB: Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, James White, Jay Ajayi, Christine Michael
    WR: Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker,
    TE: Zach Miller
    D/ST: Rams
    K: Matt Prater

    • I wouldn’t do Miller and Evans. I would still prefer Miller to Marshall and Evans and Forte are I think close to a tossup at this point at best.

      You’re in a tough spot for sure. Unexciting quarterback, and while you have some nice running backs you cant afford to trade one with Charles on the mend still and without Allen your receivers take a pretty hard hit.

      Pay attention to the waiver wire this week is what I would say right now. Allen frees you up a spot. Also something I like to do from time to time is drop my kicker to add a WW guy to give myself time to make a 2 for 1 and if I have to drop one to pick up a kicker on Saturday or Sunday.

      Look to add these very lightly owned guys Tyrell Williams, Cole Beasley, Mohammad Sanu, Seth Roberts.

      Some guys I would prefer over them but are probably already owned, Fuller, Snead, Sharpe.

      Once waivers pass and you see how it works out that would be the time to start looking at trades.

      As of now you need to play a RB as a flex, assuming you play with a flex. With Charles out debating week to week on Bernard and White isn’t awful but isnt going to win you any weeks.

      • I’m assuming the order of the ww guys is in order of preference as usual? You’re right the preferred guys are all taken but the lightly owned guys are all available. Thanks Andy.

        • Williams has the highest upside and that is what I look for in a waiver wire target.

          I think Sanu and Roberts would be next then Beasley.

          Beasley wont ever win you a week but I watched a lot of that Dallas game and they went with underneath passing and looking to Witten/Beasley a ton. He will end up with a lot of 7 for 75 type games. He was also a bad goal line drop away from ending up with a touchdown

          • Picked up Williams and Roberts off ww for Keenan and my kicker. Vikings DST, Bradford and J. Graham were dropped by other teams. Kicker J. Brown is also available. Not sure if I have any trade targets with what I have after week one. Any suggestions?

          • Not much else you can do. If people let Eli Rodgers or Kerley slip through I would take them over Roberts.

            Victor Cruz also played a ton of snaps looking back on Sunday’s game and he does get the Saints this week. If he is out there he could have another solid week and people could buy in giving him some trade value.

            It isnt a super exciting waiver wire week. So when it comes to it dropping Roberts for a kicker if/when you have to wont be a big deal

  2. Eli Rogers and Kerley are both available. I’m thinking of picking up Bradford as his upside on a great team may be worth it. I’m wondering if I should trade Evans and marriota for B.. Marshall and Tyrod Taylor. What would be some trade offers I could throw out there at some buy low targets?

    • The same owner also has Forte. Maybe Evans and another RB for Forte?

    • I would let Bradford be someone else’s problem. The Vikings dont pass nearly enough to have a viable QB. Josh McCown would be a solid option.

      In terms of Evans and a RB for Forte that is too much. I would prefer Evans over Forte slightly. Reason being that is I trust what Evans is much more than I trust Forte to keep getting 20 touches. If Forte gets another 20 touch game Thursday that could change things

      • How about trading M. Floyd and C. Michael for Forte? (I am thinking the owner of John Brown has Forte and may be interested in having the back currently getting more passes). Also, I dropped Roberts for E. Rodgers.

        • I would definitely do it if you can pull it off. Floyd’s value dropped a little after last week I would guess, even though nothing really changed from the preseason. Michael is also about to lose value when Rawls takes the backfield back over this Sunday.

  3. I took Willie Snead and Will Fuller with late round draft picks. Do I try and sell high after impressive week 1 performance or stash them? Leaning towards trying to trade away Snead and hold onto fuller.

    • As with anything the sell high stuff depends on what you are able to get. While its nice to sell high if you cant get more value than what you perceive they are worth you are better off hanging on to them.

      In terms of Fuller and Snead if you can get consistent top 25-30 type receivers that is the way to go. I believe in Snead more than Fuller for this season but as a solid third receiver.

      Players like this are usually good being packaged with someone else for example Snead plus a Latavius Murray type to get a better running back like Doug Martin or Mark Ingram.

      On their own these guys don’t usually net enough to make trading them worthwhile.

  4. Hi. How it going? I have a question about .5ppr. When I evaluate players, purely from point perspective do I lean toward standard or 1 ppr? For example, a player like Jeremy Kerley targeted 11 caught 7. I’m just not sure how to analyze the differences. Please advise. Thank you.

    • It really depends player to player. Most of the time I lean towards standard.

      The players who are true PPR guys like an Edelman, Landry, Tate, etc. are the ones who get a boost in that format. The underneath target monster type players. Low touchdown chance.

      The gap has to be very large between two players to make a difference. At only .5 PPR there has to be almost a 30 catch difference between two players with similar yardage and TD totals to see a real difference in season long and even then it is only roughly 1 point per game.

      For the specific example I dont know if Kerley will consistently be a high volume guy. He seemed like he might be their go to guy week 1 but I am not sold on it.

      He actually didnt play a ton of snaps week one and I dont know if his targets percentage can remain that high. Believe it or not he was third (54 snaps) among their receivers in snaps played. Behind Torrey Smith 78 (played every snap outside of kneel downs) and Quinton Patton 71.

      • Ok. Thanks for the response and thoughtful explanations. It will be great to see how things go.
        Well, I I have another question. I approached a draft in a 12 team .5 ppr with a wr heavy strategy. Many of the wr are solid, but rbs are mostly ppr guys like bernard, johnson, sims, white, etc. .5 ppr may not be enough production. So, what do you think about players that are only handcuffs but don’t have stand alone value. Guys like Morris, Hightower, Starks, etc. Are they better bench fliers than other rbs.

        • Morris is a great guy to have as he could be one of the true “elite” hand cuffs if something happens to Elliott. He can also help out if you are in a bye week or injury pinch as I think he will put up 30-60 yards weekly with a chance at a touchdown.

          Starks is similar although his week to week production will be boom or bust. I dont think Hightower is in a true handcuff spot.

          A couple kind of under the radar running backs are Chris Thompson and Travaris Cadet.

          Thompson played twice as many snaps as the starter Matt Jones. He is the true passing downs back there and will always have that role.

          Cadet is similar as the passing downs back and surprisingly he only played 3 fewer snaps than Ingram in a game the Saints were in the entire game. Cadet had 7 targets, only behind Cooks and Snead, week one and he got 2 red zone targets.

          • So, Morris, Thompson, Cadet. Of these rbs D. Washington [oak], Starks, Draughn on my bench, what order would you rank all these guys and who would you drop and pick up? Once again thanks for sharing your time and advice.

          • Only one I would drop of the ones you own would be Washington. Starks and Draughn are good options to keep because of the potential upside if something happens to the starter.

            If you dont need a starter anytime soon and want the upside play I would go Morris. But if you need a starter in the next couple weeks then Cadet or Thompson would be good options.

            Of Cadet vs. Thompson I think Cadet has the higher upside but Thompson has a more locked in role in the offense.

  5. QB: Marcus Mariota
    RB: Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, James White, Jay Ajayi, Christine Michael
    WR: Mike Evans, Michael Floyd, Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker, Eli Rogers, Tyrell Williams
    TE: Zach Miller
    D/ST: Rams
    Who is my drop candidate to pickup a kicker? I’m thinking White. And do you like Josh Brown or Matt Prater this week? I also noticed my TE is ranked very low.. would any of the following be worth picking up? Clive Walford, Virgil Green, Kyle Rudolph.

    • Ajayi would be my drop. I dont think he is really starting over with the Dolphins. They never seemed to like him there and when Foster missed practice he still only split snaps.

      Kickers are usually coin flips. This week I go Brown because of the matchup I expect him to have a lot of scoring opportunities.

      None of those tight ends are really different from Miller. If Witten is out there he would be my guy to grab. Dennis Pitta is an off the Radar option I like as well and if you want to play things a little risky you could go with him over Miller.

      • Thanks Andy! So is there another drop to pick up Pitta or would you drop Miller? I feel at this point I am leaning more toward the risky side because I feel so far “out of the race” to win.

        • I dont like carrying two tight ends. If you want the risk reward play of Pitta Miller would be the drop.

          Neither will be week winning type plays anytime soon but Pitta has a nice matchup this week with the Browns. He played a ton of snaps and at tight end being on the field a lot is half the battle.

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