Howdy folks! I feel like I have failed you recently. As I have mentioned a few times in this space, I generally make 8 lineups in GPPs a day, and in this column I give you picks from my top 3 lineups. Well, recently my top 3 lineups have not been performing, but my other 5 have been doing well. So while I have struck out here a couple of times, my results have actually been pretty good. Let’s see if I can reverse that trend today. If you want to follow my GPP results, here is a link to my RotoGrinders profile. It only tracks results with a prize pool over $10,000, so my results are not all there, but it gives you an idea of how I am doing.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Coco Crisp vs. Hector Santiago – 4/11 with 3 homers, a double and 3 walks
- Robinson Cano vs. Kendall Graveman – 6/11 with 3 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Steve Pearce vs. Jordan Zimmermann – 4/11 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a walk
- Andres Blanco vs. Max Scherzer – 5/10 with a double and a homer
Stacks to Target:
- Tigers vs. Ubaldo Jimenez – Jimenez has been his regular, not-find-the-platey self this year, but on top of missing the strike zone, he is allowing a career high in hard contact as well. Detroit is a reasonably good hitting team against right-handed pitching considering they are mostly right-handed bats with a .329 wOBA and .172 team ISO. The Tigers have also hit Jimenez well in a pretty big sample size as their lineup sports a .310/.391/.579 line against the Orioles’ enigmatic righty. I like the Tigers for a big game.
- Twins vs. Mike Clevinger – Clevinger is another pitcher who has trouble finding the plate as he has an unacceptable and Jimenez like 13.3% BB-Rate. He also has a 5.30 ERA despite a .288 BABIP with a fair amount of hard contact, so if he does not start finding the zone, his ERA could rise if his good batted ball luck changes. Clevinger also has an 8.16 road ERA on the season, so things don’t bode so well for him today. The Twins come in smoking hot with the top OPS in the last 7 days at .929, which continues a trend of hot hitting as they are 3rd in runs scored and 5th in OPS since the All-Star break. I am rolling my Twins out there today.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Max Scherzer vs. Phillies – Scherzer costs $14,400 on DraftKings, which is about as high a salary as you will see for a pitcher, but he is worth it today. You just have to take a cheap 2nd pitcher and find some good punt plays. Scherzer has an amazing 31.6% K-Rate on the year and held these Phillies to 3 hits and 2 runs over 8 innings with 11 Ks 2 starts ago. The Phillies have never hit him well with a .215/.266/.372 collective line against the Nats’ ace. I am going to have my fair of Scherzer exposure today.
- Collin McHugh vs. Cubs – If you are going to play Scherzer, my favorite cheap pitcher today is McHugh. He is an inexplicably cheap $5,200 on DraftKings, below such pitching luminaries as John Gant and the 2016 pitching pinata known as James Shields. McHugh is pitching at home where he has a respectable 3.89 ERA and has struck out more than a batter an inning. His strikeout rate in the 2nd half of the year is a well above average (24.2%). McHugh’s 2nd half numbers are really looking bad due to a sky-high .393 BABIP despite an average hard contact rate- in other words, his results should begin to normalize soon. If you are worried about the match-up, while the Cubs are world beaters, they come in ice-cold with a .603 OPS over their last 7 games, ranking 28th in MLB. I like McHugh to exceed value today.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- Phillies at Nationals – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Royals at White Sox – 17 MPH wind blowing out
Platoon Split Hitters
- Mike Napoli vs. Hector Santiago – Napoli continues to do well against lefties with a .380 wOBA and 138 wRC+.
- Daniel Murphy vs. Jerad Eickhoff – Eickhoff really struggles against left-handed bats and Murphy has an impressive .418 wOBA and 163 wRC+ against righties on the year.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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