Hey guys! Interesting day of baseball today as we have a split slate with 5 afternoon games and 7 night games – and nary an ace to be found. The most expensive pitcher on DraftKings (by a fairly wide margin) is J.A. Happ, who has a fairly tough match-up at Houston, and isn’t the most elite pitcher to begin with. On FanDuel, the highest priced pitcher is Drew Pomeranz, who has struggled to a 7+ ERA since he was traded to the Red Sox. Today will be about finding decent pitching while getting good points from your hitters. Let’s see how we do.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and espn. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Alex Rodriguez vs. Bartolo Colon – 13/26 with 6 homers, 3 doubles and 2 walks
- Jonathan Lucroy vs. Wade Miley – 4/11 with a double, a homer and 2 walks
- Freddie Freeman vs. Ryan Vogelsong – 7/17 with 2 homers
- Lorenzo Cain vs. Drew Smyly – 4/10 with a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Dodgers at Rockies – Coors Field alert! This should be another high scoring game. The Rockies face Kenta Maeda, so they may not be highly owned today.
- Pirates vs. Tyrell Jenkins – Jenkins had a decent enough ERA at AAA this year, but his K/9 was low at 6.23 and his BB/9 was high at 3.32. It has only gotten worse at the major league level as his K/9 is 4.60 and his BB/9 is a sky-high 6.14. Jenkins has managed not to have an overly inflated ERA (it sits at 4.91) due to a .271 BABIP allowed and an 80.7% strand rate, despite an above average 34.1% hard contact allowed. His 6.22 SIERA and 6.19 xFIP tell a more accurate story. In other words, Jenkins has been pretty lucky, and he still hasn’t posted good results. The luck should run out soon at Jenkins may get tagged today.
- Mets vs. Nathan Eovaldi – I liked the Mets against Chad Green yesterday because he had struggled against left-handed bats in a small sample size. I love them today against Eovaldi who has struggled against lefties in a large sample size. This season he is allowing a .371 wOBA to lefties and it shouldn’t improve today. The Mets can now throw a whole slew of decent left-handed bats at you with Granderson, Walker, Bruce, Loney and Conforto. The Mets will likely be low owned and could surprise with a huge game.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- A’s at Angels – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Pirates vs. Braves – chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Brandon Finnegan vs. Cardinals – The Cardinals only rank 24th in the majors in OPS versus lefties, despite Stephen Piscotty continuing to hit southpaws well. Today they face Finnegan, who they have struggled with this season. In 2 starts against St. Louis, Finnegan has allowed only 2 earned runs over 12 innings while striking out 9 batters. He is a dirt cheap $5,500 on DraftKings and should easily exceed value.
- Drew Smyly vs. Royals – Vegas predicts that the Royals will be the lowest scoring team of the day scoring only 3.53 runs. Despite this, DraftKings only prices Smyly at $7,600, which is middle of the road. KC has been ice-cold recently with the 2nd lowest OPS in MLB over the last 7 days at .571, including getting shut down by Jake Odorizzi and the Rays yesterday. Look for more of the same from Smyly at a pretty reasonable cost.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Mike Napoli vs. Hector Santiago – Napoli continues his assault on lefties this season with a .381 wOBA and 141 wRC+.
- Cameron Rupp vs. Matt Moore – Rupp is an unheralded lefty killer with a .421 wOBA and 165 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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