It’s a short schedule today, with two afternoon games and 7 night games. I actually like playing the short slates, but it’s even more important to really hit on your value picks as well as your SP.
There are plenty of good choices today which should help spread out the ownership levels. This is my favorite day this week so far for picks, so hopefully we can come out ahead. Best of luck.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- David Ortiz vs Jered Weaver – 12/37 with 2 doubles and 3 home runs
- Ben Zobrist vs Chris Sale – 6/11 with a double and 2 stolen bases
- Jedd Gyorko vs Jose Fernandez – 2/8 with 2 home runs (could his power surge continue?)
- Maikel Franco vs Matt Wisler – 5/9 with 2 doubles and a home run
- J.J Hardy vs Kyle Gibson – 3/7 with a double, a home run and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Red Sox vs Jered Weaver – I wasn’t sure things could get much worse for Weaver after a first half that saw a 5.27 ERA and .361 wOBA. In two starts since the All-Star break those numbers are 5.73 and .396, and now he faces the majors top hitting team. Mercifully the game is in Anaheim, but Weaver is even a little worse at home. He hasn’t faced the Red Sox this year, but is 4-6 with a 4.16 ERA against them lifetime. He’ll be lucky to get out today with that mark.
- Twins vs Ubaldo Jimenez – It really could be the Orioles I recommend here, but K. Gibson has been pretty good this month, and the Orioles have been hitting even poorer than the Twins of late. Both pitchers keep the ball on the ground which should help with the wind blowing out today. Unfortunately, when you’re allowing 12 hits per 9 innings and 5.5 walks per 9 innings (as Ubaldo has this year), it just takes one to really blow up the scoreboard. Expect fireworks in this matchup, and I’m betting it is the Twins that get the upper hand.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Phillies at Braves – 14 MPH wind blowing out
- White Sox at Cubs – 12 MPH wind blowing in
- Orioles at Twins – 11 MPH wind blowing in
- Nationals at Giants – 13 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jacob DeGrom vs Rockies – DeGrom is a beast at home with a career 2.02 ERA and .203 BAA. He faces the Rockies who are the second worst road-hitting club in the majors this year. DeGrom has started three games against them and is 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA, allowing only 9 hits in 21.1 innings of work. Vegas has this game at 7 runs with the Mets at -190 favorites, making this a pretty solid bet at a respectable price ($10,200 on DK).
- Aaron Nola vs Braves – I’d love to get Jose Fernandez into my lineup today, but if his $13,400 price tag is too prohibitive, Aaron Nola at $5,000 cheaper should fill in nicely. The wind is blowing out today, but I’d be more concerned about Matt Wisler (43% FB rate) than Nola (25%). Nola has a .277 wOBA on the road this year, and the Braves are the majors worst hitting club. He has faced them 4 times in his brief career and is 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA. I’m still aboard the Nola train and his 55% GB rate and 20% K-BB rate.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Paulo Orlando vs C. Hamels – Hitting .348 this year vs LHP (and .385 in the past week).
- Javier Baez vs C. Sale – Destroying lefties with a .370 AVG and a .443 wOBA and 181 wRC+
- Yunel Escobar vs D. Price – Escobar has a .357/.402/.548 line vs LHP this year (and hitting .448 in last week).
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @FantasyAssembly
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