They say a wise man knows his limitations, and this certainly applies to the game of baseball. I gave up playing in 2014 as the wear and tear on my body was just too much. Well, last night my buddy asked me to play a double-header with his team that was short-handed. The memories of being on the field and the excitement of getting out there once again far outweighed any concern about my age and likelihood of getting hurt again. To make a long story short, I had a great time, but I really should have known better! Hopefully. I can at least be wise with fantasy baseball today and maybe hang up my cleats for good this time (not likely).
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Michael Bourn vs Matt Garza – 10/21 with 2 stolen bases
- Nick Markakis vs Ervin Santana – 12/40 with 5 doubles and 3 home runs
- Jonathan Lucroy vs Patrick Corbin – 5/8 with a double
- Jay Bruce vs Matt Cain – 8/16 with 2 doubles and 4 walks
- Matt Holiday vs Bartolo Colon – 7/16 with 2 doubles and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Reds vs Matt Cain – If I suggested the Reds yesterday against Jake Peavy and they torched him for three home runs and 6 runs in 5 innings, I’d be a fool to not recommend them again today. Matt Cain is about the worst pitcher in the majors right now, with LHH batting .339/.402/.537 against him. RHH aren’t quite as successful, but still put up a .354 wOBA. The wind is blowing out again today, and surely some of Cain’s 65% FB and LD allowed this year will find their way to the seats.
- Angels vs Dillon Gee – Gee hasn’t had a quality start since April of 2015, so this really isn’t a tough selection. Opponents are hitting .313/.396/.458 against Gee at home, for a 4.54 ERA. The Angels, meanwhile, have been hitting very well, coming in at second in AVG and WRC+ for the month of July. This will surely be a short outing for Gee, but I also expect him to give up 4-5 runs before he is pulled.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Reds at San Francisco– 13 MPH wind blowing out
- Braves at Twins – 9 MPH wind blowing out
- Tigers at Red Sox – 10 MPH wind blowing to right
- Phillies at Marlins – 11 MPH wind blowing in
Pitchers of the Day:
- Felix Hernandez vs Pirates – It’s been a tough season for Hernandez, with a K%-BB% of 9.1, which is about half of what he averaged in the previous 6 years. Fortunately for King Felix, he gets the Pirates in Pittsburgh today who have been struggling mightily at the dish. Over the past two weeks the Pirates are the 3rd worst hitting club with a .223 AVG and .270 wOBA. Hernandez has been much better on the road too and is 2-0 lifetime against Pittsburgh with a 1.17 ERA in 3 starts. Add in a value price of $8,600 on Draft Kings and he’s a no-doubt start today.
- Ervin Santana vs Braves – Often it’s as much about the opposing lineup as it is about the starting pitcher. That’s the case here as the Braves are the worst hitting road team in the majors this year. They are also the worst hitting team vs RHP. Santana, despite his 4.22 ERA, has allowed just a .285 wOBA at home and has allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in his past six starts. There’s nothing glamorous here, but at $7,800 he allows a lot of flexibility with the rest of your daily lineup.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Nelson Cruz vs F. Liriano – 12 HR in 114 AB against LHP this year
- W.Flores, Reyes, and Cespedes vs J. Garcia- Combined vs LHP: .341/.431/.688 in 2016
- Eibner and Merrifield vs T. Skaggs – Against LHP, they combine to hit .356 with a .953 OPS
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @FantasyAssembly
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