It’s short slate Thursday! There are two lonely afternoon games, with one featuring the lone real ace pitching today, Stephen Strasburg. The night slate has 7 games, with the pistol hot Adam Wainwright and knuckleballer Stephen Wright as the top priced pitching options. Much like yesterday, I am not enamored with pitching today and I will be opting for cheaper pitchers while stacking my favorite bats. Let’s hope it works out.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Danny Valencia vs. Matt Moore – 5/11 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and a walk
- Alex Rodriguez vs. Chris Tillman – 7/19 with 5 homers and 3 walks
- Didi Gregorius vs. Chris Tillman – 7/13 with 3 doubles, a triple and 2 walks
- Nolan Reimold vs. CC Sabathia – 13/35 with 3 doubles, 2 homers and 4 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Braves at Rockies – Coors Field Alert!!
- Orioles vs. CC Sabathia – Sabathia’s ERA is finally catching up to his peripheral numbers as he posted a 7.41 ERA in July. Much of Sabathia’s success early in the season was due to a flukishly low HR/FB rate, which has just started to normalize. His 4.69 SIERA and 4.76 xFIP both represent career highs. It’s true that Sabathia has not allowed a run in 12 innings against Baltimore this season, but he walked more than a batter an inning in his last start against the O’s and I don’t see that as a recipe for another good start. I like the Orioles to do some damage today.
- Tigers vs. James Shields – The Tigers righty heavy line-up is surprisingly effective against right-handed hurlers as they rank 9th in OPS with a .764. Shields has started to find his groove after a brutal June, with game scores over 50 in his last 4 starts and a 2.08 July ERA. That having been said, the Tigers got 13 base runners against Shields in 5 innings in his only outing against them with 6 earned runs. I like another good game from Detroit today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Twins at Red Sox – 10 MPH wind blowing out
- Rays at A’s – 13 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Sonny Gray vs. Rays – After an effective June (3.23 ERA), Gray has reverted back to struggling in July (5.50 ERA). However, much of that is due to one rough start, as Gray has posted quality starts his last 2 times out and in 4 of his last 5 starts. Tampa Bay struggles against righties with a meager .302 wOBA and a 24.4% K-rate. Gray only costs $6,100 on DraftKings and should easily make value.
- Tom Koehler vs. Phillies – The Phillies offense is bad, ranking last in OPS since the all-star break and last in OPS at home. They also sport a lousy .300 wOBA versus right-handed pitching and pair that with a 21.0% K-Rate. Koehler is no world beater, but he only costs $5,300 on DraftKings against this terrible offense. And in 2 games against the Phillies this year, Koehler has allowed only 3 runs in 14 innings while striking out 12. He is another pitcher who should easily make value.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Jayson Werth vs. Julio Urias – Werth loves hitting against lefties with a .441 wOBA and 179 wRC+.
- Danny Valencia vs. Matt Moore – Valencia has had success against Moore and is also dominating lefties with a .444 wOBA and 185 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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