With the All-Star Game in the rearview mirror we embark on the unofficial second half of the season. By now a lot of the players to see success in 2016 have been promoted to a higher level. Those that have struggled in the first half get a chance to right the ship in the second half. As noted earlier in the season, do not just look at season long numbers when trying to evaluate players. Try to look at what has changed, and if there was an extreme hot or cold streak in the early season that is effecting the season long numbers, just like the first player on this week’s report.
- July 3-July 17: .339/.381/.576, 8 2B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 15 K, 2 SB
- 2016: .263/.325/.409, 20 2B, 5 HR, 30 BB, 60 K, 9 SB
At the end of the year when Devers finishes with a .280 average remember that he was hitting .180 through his first 40 games. Devers took a little hit from the preseason rankings to the midseason rankings in my prospect ranks. I still believe in Devers long-term; I think I just bought into the hype too much for such a young player in high-A. However, all the scouting reports have him being a future star. The biggest difference between his first half (40 games) and second half (last 45 games) is his pop-up and strikeout rates. The pop-up rate has dropped nearly 10 percent and he has seen a five percent drop in his strikeout rate.
- July 3-July 17: .386/.449/.841, 2 2B, 6 HR, 5 BB, 6 K, 0 SB
- 2016 (MLB + minors): .243/.320/.479, 11 2B, 16 HR, 28 BB, 61 K, 1 SB
Since being demoted in mid June he has hit .301 with a .645 slugging percentage. White has traditionally crushed AAA, the PCL, and got off to a hot start in the majors before a dramatic drop-off. White might be a AAAA type player or a bat off the bench long-term. If you are still invested in a deeper league you can hold onto hope that his minor league numbers and his early season success is still a possibility.
- Last three starts: 15 2/3 innings, 3.45 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 24 K, 7 BB
- 2016: 86 1/3 innings, 2.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 96 K, 31 BB
Since writing about him back in May Gonsalves has been promoted to AA. Since being promoted he has only had one rocky outing, six earned runs in only three and two-thirds. He is now coming off back-to-back shutouts and an 11 strikeout game in his last start. The strikeouts have been coming along lately; even in his bad start he managed to strikeout eight. I don’t know if he figured something out in his jump to AA, but since the promotion he is shrinking out 32 percent of the batters he has faced, or 13.1 per nine innings. He did not see nearly that much strikeout success in high-A, he was only striking out 7.5 per nine in his 145 innings there. If Gonsalves has been able to tap into something he couldn’t in high-A and he can get a strikeout per inning he will become a really interesting pitcher to keep an eye on in 2017.
- Last three starts: 20 2/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 19 K, 3 BB
- 2016: 112 2/3 inns, 2.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 103 K, 26 BB
Marquez can light up a radar gun, hitting the upper 90s at times. For what he has, in terms of stuff, the low strikeout numbers are a concern. He struck out one and allowed a hit in a one inning appearance in the AA All-Star Game. Marquez has a way to go before becoming big league relevant, but if his stuff can show up in his strikeout numbers he could get some hype for 2017-18.
Cause for concern?
- July 3-July 17: .278/.395/.500, 3 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 13 K, 2 SB
- 2016: .281/.367/.577, 28 2B, 24 HR, 48 BB, 115 K, 16 SB
He really is breaking out this season, but look deeper into his numbers. Cozens is getting fantasy hype for the big home run totals, and he does have some nice raw power, but take a look into where it is happening. Cozens is hitting .351/.407/.802 with 20 home runs at home and .251/.330/.377 with four home runs on the road. The discrepancy in home runs is even more worrisome than the slash line to me. He actually has 17 more plate appearances on the road than at home. Not only are his home road splits alarming, but he also has bad lefty righty splits. He is hitting .192/.286/.370 against lefties with only three home runs this season. I can’t see him being able, or allowed, to hit against lefties in the pros. If you can use his season line to flip him for a top-150 prospect jump on it.
MLB Draft Update
Ten notable over slot signings to keep an eye on ranked by how much over slot they signed for.
Like most years, mostly high school arms that needed the extra money to be lured away from college.
Notable performances from the draft
- Kyle Lewis: 126 PA, .284/.373/.495, 6 2B, 4 HR, 15 BB, 20 K, 3 SB
- Bo Bichette: 75 PA, .418/.440/.716, 7 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 14 K, 1 SB
- Matt Thaiss: 107 PA, .313/.389/.469, 12 2B, 2 HR, 8 BB, 7 K, 2 SB
- Taylor Trammell: 95 PA, .314/.379/.360, 2 2B, 0 HR, 8 BB, 18 K, 10 SB
- Delvin Perez: 84 PA, .342/.393/.447, 6 2B, 0 HR, 5 BB, 14 K, 8 SB
- Nick Senzel: 105 PA, .230/.352/.310, 7 2B, 0 HR, 14 BB, 15 K, 10 SB
- Mickey Moniak: 60 PA, .309/.350/.400, 0 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 11 K, 1 SB
- Corey Ray: 63 PA, .250/.254/.267, 1 2B, 0 HR, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 SB
- Alex Kirilloff: 65 PA, .323/.323/.516, 6 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 7 K, 0 SB
- Joey Wentz: 12 innings, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 18 K, 5 BB
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