It should be another great day for baseball today. There is a full schedule of night games on today’s slate so there is a lot to choose from in daily fantasy. DraftKings seems to have taken the all-star break to change their pricing algorithm, as it seems as if hitting prices across the board are higher making it harder to stack. The one-off punt plays and cheaper pitching have become even more important. Yesterday, I was forced to stack Royals against Kluber in a lineup where I started both Sale and Fernandez – and it ended up working out OK after Kluber left the game due to injury. But the already challenging puzzle of daily fantasy, seems to have become even more challenging.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Danny Valencia vs. Dallas Keuchel – 7/13 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and 3 walks
- Ian Desmond vs. Tim Lincecum – 10/15 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and a walk
- Asdrubal Cabrera vs. Jake Arrieta – 5/11 with 2 homers and a walk
- Eric Hosmer vs. Danny Salazar – 8/24 with 4 doubles, 2 homers and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Rays at Rockies – Coors Field Alert!!
- Blue Jays vs. Zack Godley – The Jays have a reputation as being a lefty mashing machine, but they also hit righties very well with a .334 team wOBA this season. Godley has struggled with the same-side platoon over his short career as he has allowed a .366 wOBA to righties. The Blue Jays have gotten hot and are 4th in OPS in July. I expect some fireworks at Chase Field.
- Nationals vs. Scott Kazmir – The Nationals are now the top team in MLB against left-handed pitching with a .347 wOBA and .819 OPS. While Kazmir is a pretty good pitcher, this stack will be pretty affordable, especially if you include guys like Trea Turner and Clint Robinson. I think ownership will be reasonable and this should be a great play.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Dodgers at Nationals – Chance of rain
- Rays at Rockies – Chance of rain
- Padres vs. Cardinals – Chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Carlos Martinez vs. Padres – The Padres really struggle against right-handed pitching with a .290 team wOBA and 24.3% K-rate. Martinez has been amazing since June 1 with a 1.78 ERA. And while his strikeouts and K-rate are down, he has 18 strikeouts in his last 12 innings pitched. He is only the 6th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and is my pick for high scorer.
- Jake Arrieta vs. Mets – I am hoping that Arrieta’s ownership will dip due to his recent poor performance, including a tough start against the Mets. The Mets are not a great offensive team with a .310 wOBA and 22.5% K-rate against righties, so this could be the day that Arrieta finds his groove again. More importantly, Arrieta’s last 3 rough starts have all come on the road. He still has a 1.65 ERA at Wrigley on the season while allowing a .193/.290/.239 slash line along with a 12.67 K/9. Until he struggles at home, I will continue to roll Arrieta out there while he is at Wrigley.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Jose Altuve vs. Dillon Overton – Altuve smokes lefties with a .426 wOBA and 171 wRC+.
- Danny Valencia vs. Dallas Keuchel – Valencia is an underrated lefty masher with a .450 wOBA and 190 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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