It’s back to a split slate today with 7 afternoon games and 8 evening games. For those of you DFS players who took the 4th of July week off, this should be a great day filled with baseball. For the poor saps like me who have to work, you’ll have to have mlb.com refreshing on our office computers or phones. Interestingly for me today, with my first look I have a better feel for the afternoon slate than the evening slate, so most of my analysis comes from the early games.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Carlos Beltran vs. Miguel Gonzalez – 5/9 with 3 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Justin Bour vs. Jacob deGrom – 5/9 with a double and 2 walks
- Yonder Alonso vs. Ervin Santana – 5/10 with 2 doubles and 2 walks
- Jayson Werth vs. Matt Garza – 8/20 with 3 doubles, a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Mets vs. Justin Nicolino – I love targeting Nicolino because, quite frankly, I don’t love his skills. He is still struggling with hard contact allowing 36.5% of balls to be hit with force. His K/9 is getting slightly better, but remains minuscule at 4.15, and he allows a .351 wOBA to right-handed batters. His 5.34 ERA is not a fluke as evidenced by his 5.23 SIERA. The Mets bats have come alive recently and they beat up on all-star lefties like Jon Lester. Let’s see what Reyes, Cespedes, Walker, Cabrera and the boys can do against Nicolino.
- Reds vs. Adam Warren – Due to injury, the Cubs are forced to start a reliever today in Adam Warren. Warren’s season numbers are not looking great as he sports a high walk rate (4.91 BB/9) and a high hard contact rate of 32.9%. He has lucked his way into a half-respectable 4.56 ERA due to a flukishly low BABIP allowed of .240. Warren’s 5.36 xFIP is more indicative of his skills, and Bruce, Votto, Duvall and the boys should put up some crooked numbers.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Yankees at White Sox – Chance of rain
- Pirates at Cardinals – Chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Bud Norris vs. Orioles – I am not usually a narrative kind of guy, but I like the idea of a revenge factor game here. On top of that, Norris is smoking hot as he has allowed 3 Earned runs or less over his last six starts, including giving up zero runs in his last two outings. Norris has also found his strikeout mojo, striking out over a batter and inning in his last four games. He has had a GameScore over 50 in his last six and I think that continues today despite the tough match-up.
- Jacob deGrom vs. Marlins – deGrom was pitching well at the start of the season, but the big concern was that his K-rate had gone down significantly. Consider that problem solved as he has struck out a batter an inning or more, plus has gone six innings or more, in 7 of his last 8 starts. In that same sample size, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in every start. He has had a GameScore over 53 in his last eight starts and I think that continues today as well.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Yoenis Cespedes vs. Justin Nicolino – Cespedes loves hitting against lefties with a .524 wOBA and 241 wRC+.
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Jeff Locke – The lefty killer sports a tidy .453 wOBA and 189 wRC+ versus southpaws.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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