Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 29
It is an interesting day of baseball and an interesting day of daily fantasy today. There is the usual Wednesday split slate, with many of the predicted higher scoring games happening early, while the late games may feature some lower tallies. I am going to try to get a few lineups in to play what looks to be a fun early slate and then of course play the night slate too. Let’s see what we come up with.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Jose Abreu vs. Ricky Nolasco – 4/11 with 2 homers and a double
- David Ortiz vs. Matt Moore – 8/20 with 3 homers, 2 doubles and 2 walks
- George Springer vs. Jered Weaver – 7/15 with a double and a homer
- Billy Butler vs. Jake Peavy – 16/36 with 3 homers, a double and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Blue Jays at Rockies – Coors Field alert!
- Astros vs. Jered Weaver – The Astros’ power bats should play well against Weaver who doesn’t strike guys out which is their bugaboo. Weaver used to be effective by inducing soft contact (career rate 20.1%) and limiting hard contact (career rate 26.9%), but this year his hard contact is way up to 35.4% and his soft contact is way down at 15.6%. He has already allowed 19 homers and will obliterate his career high of 27 homers allowed. I expect the Astros to have a field day.
- Diamondbacks vs. Zach Eflin – Eflin’s 6.28 ERA looks ugly, but he is actually lucky that it is that low. Eflin has allowed a very high line drive rate of 27.1%, and yet his BABIP allowed sits at only .268. If his BABIP normalized to the .320-.330 range, which you would expect with that line drive rate, Eflin would be letting up runs in bunches. The DBacks are a pretty solid hitting team and are playing in their home park which is a great hitting environment. Play them with confidence.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- None! Let’s play ball!
Pitchers of the Day:
- Max Scherzer vs. Mets – Scherzer is the best pitcher going today and the Mets can’t hit. For the month of June, the Mets rank a dismal 29th in team OPS. Scherzer has had double-digit strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 games and struck out 10 Mets in his only start against them earlier this season. I could see this being a 7 inning shutout with 13 strikeouts for Max.
- Dallas Keuchel vs. Angels – Kuechel had one of his best starts of the season against the Angels in his only time facing them earlier this year going 7 innings and allowing only 3 hits and 2 runs on May 28. The Angels are not a great hitting team ranking 24th in OPS in June. And, as I outlined in the Jered Weaver section, I think the Astros will score a bunch and Keuchel should get a win, which would be huge on FanDuel.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Marcell Ozuna vs. Daniel Norris – Ozuna is a top 5 hitter versus lefties this year with a .532 wOBA and 242 wRC+.
- David Freese vs. Wade Miley – Freese has always seen lefties well in his career, and 2016 is no different as he has a .408 wOBA and 161 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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