Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 9
Usually I write these in the morning, but tomorrow I face the wrath of the dentist at 8:00 a.m. So I am actually writing this as I sit through Wednesday night’s slate – and it is a bloodbath for me. I have two lineups that have a chance of cashing so maybe I’ll only have a -50% ROI on the evening, instead of -100%. We shall see.
But as I always say, with daily fantasy, it has to be about the process and not the night to night results. The sample size over a one night period is way too small to make any evaluations. The process has been amazing for me this year, and one bad night won’t change that. Let’s see how we will do better today.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Prince Fielder vs. Collin McHugh – 8/11 with a walk
- Nolan Arenado vs. Jeff Locke – 6/14 with 2 doubles, a homer and 2 walks
- Albert Pujols vs. Ivan Nova – 4/12 with 2 homers and a walk
- Robinson Cano vs. Josh Tomlin – 5/14 with 2 doubles and a homer
Stacks to Target:
- Pirates at Rockies – Coors Field is back in our lives as the Pirates and Rockies play a one game mini series today before the Rockies embark on a home stand. Play all your Pirates and Rockies.
- Rangers vs. Collin McHugh – I like McHugh and keep touting him as I think he will bounce back and have a great second half. But this is a tough spot for him to be in. The Rangers love hitting in their home ballpark as they rank 6th in the majors in home OPS. And McHugh has struggled at the Ballpark in Arlington with a 5.59 career ERA and 1.862 career WHIP. Fire up your Rangers.
- Brewers vs. Bartolo Colon – I like to pick against the Brewers when they are facing high strikeout pitchers, but Colon is not that anymore. As he advances in age, he has become even more pitch to contact. Additionally, though the surface stats look good, Colon looks to be due for some regression. His 37.7% hard contact rate would represent a career high (we think – Colon has been around so long that he predates batted ball data) and his 26.3% line drive rate would be another career high (with the same caveat). Milwaukee is a respectable 16th in team OPS and could do some damage against Colon.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Angels at Yankees – 14 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Nate Karns vs. Cleveland – Karns really likes his new home ballpark as he has a .285 season wOBA allowed at Safeco. He has also allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 4 home starts. The pickings are slim on the mound today, and Karns should be a steady source of close to 20 points.
- Jimmy Nelson vs. Mets – First the bad news for Nelson – his numbers scream regression. His BABIP is artificially low, his strikeouts are low, his strand rate and walks are high, and his hard contact percentage is way up. In fairness, his soft contact induced is way up as well. So, for you season long players, I don’t like Nelson the rest of the way. I do like him in this match-up though, as the Mets depleted lineup is not beating anyone. Over the last 7 days, only the putrid Braves have scored fewer runs than the Mets. Nelson should be able to stymie this motley crew.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Brandon Finnegan – Piscotty is barely above average against righties, but against lefties he has an unreal .514 wOBA and 231 wRC+.
- George Springer vs. Martin Perez – Springer is also just a shade above average against righties, but dynamite against lefties with a .437 wOBA and a 181 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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