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Minor league report: Look at more than season long numbers

Checking in on those fantasy prospects and seeing some underwhelming numbers? Now that were are almost into June season long numbers are almost meaningless. Now could even be the best time to pounce. Fantasy owners are less likely to notice a hot streak from a minor league player than a major leaguer on their roster. From here on out use that to your advantage. Find players who may have struggled out of the gate whose season long stats don’t match the recent, or expected, production.

Most of this week’s players fall into that category of subpar season long numbers, but are on recent streaks pointing towards a turnaround.

Top-100

Austin Meadows

  • May 15-May 29: .375/.469/.650, 5 2B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 5 K, 3 SB
  • 2016: .255/.330/.398, 8 2B, 0 HR, 12 BB, 23 K, 6 SB

I am really excited about his future potential in Pittsburgh. I just don’t know when or where it will come. He is blocked by the Pirates big three outfielders who are under team control for a few more years. His season got off to a slow start after a broken bone in his face in spring training, but Meadows has the potential to be a high-end player while producing across the board. Meadows will flirt with .300 while being a 20/20 threat year in and year out. The question with him is when will it start.

Nick Williams

  • May 15-May 29: .327/.389/.469, 4 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 18 K, 2 SB
  • 2016: .287/.322/.427, 7 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 45 K, 4 SB

He hasn’t shown the power numbers I would like to see from him this season. I think he still has that potential in the future. He has a power speed profile (leaning more towards power) that always has a place in fantasy leagues. Williams should be up sooner rather than later as the Phillies don’t have much keeping him from the big league roster.

Anthony Alford

  • May 15-May 29: .302/.333/.415, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 16 K, 0 SB
  • 2016: .219/.287/.281, 3 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 41 K, 3 SB

Alford is an interesting name, to me, because of his profile and where his major league affiliate plays. He is mostly a speed threat, but I am interested to see if Toronto can do anything to add to his power numbers. I would project him as a 15 homer player that can steal up to 40 bases. He is patient at the plate and will draw his fair share of walks; he had a walk rate of nearly 14 percent last season, and that helped him get on base at a .398 clip. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded somewhere at the deadline, but I would really like to see what he can do if he stays on the turf in Toronto.




Outside top-100

Erick Fedde

  • Last three starts: 16 innings, 2.81 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13 K, 2 BB
  • 2016: 45 innings, 5.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 46 K, 10 BB

He had Tommy John Surgery in 2014 and it limited him to only 64 innings last season. While he wasn’t overly impressive, the numbers he put up after surgery are encouraging. Getting his first full taste of minor league baseball this season, he was off to a little bit of a rocky start before settling down in his last few outings. Fedde has three major league quality pitches and he can consistently throw them all for strikes. Don’t expect elite numbers at any point in his career but a solid middle of the rotation MLB arm could be in the cards.

Reese McGuire

  • May 15-May 22: .375/.529/.417, 1 2B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 3 K, 0 SB
  • 2016: .255/.385/.311, 3 2B, 1 HR, 21, 10 K, 1 SB

His recent hot streak could be more of a blip than a trend. McGuire wasn’t ever expected to be a top-notch fantasy asset – his calling card is his defense. In deep or two catcher leagues he should be on the radar because his defense will get him an opportunity to play in the majors.

Sandy Alcantara

  • Last three starts: 18 innings, 5.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 28 K, 5 BB
  • 2016: 45 1/3 innings, 4.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 58 K, 24 BB

I know what you’re probably thinking. A 5.00 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in his last three starts and he’s hot? His most recent start, Sunday, was a bit of a downer, but he was coming off of a 14 strikeout performance in six innings. Oh and that 14 strikeout performance came on the heels of a 10 strikeout performance. In those two starts that would have been 13 innings and 24 strikeouts before that Sunday outing. Alcantara has a great fastball that can hit triple digits with ease. He is only 20 and playing with the Cardinals Class A affiliate. If I can find a flier in an organization that continually churns out good prospects like St. Louis, I go there rather than somewhere else. Grab Alcantara in deeper formats and let him sit in your minors for a year or two. There is a lot of strikeout upside here.

Michael Gettys

  • May 15-May 29: .320/.414/.520, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 12 K, 6 SB
  • 2016: .298/.374/.416, 7 2B, 2 HR, 14 BB, 52 K, 21 SB

The physical tools and abilities had a lot of people really excited heading into last season. After he hit .231 with 162 strikeouts that excitement wore off. Gettys looks like he has figured things out a bit flirting with .300 early in the season. He has cut the strikeouts down to about 25 percent, and while that is good, I would still like to see it drop to around 20. Odds are the Gettys owner in your league jumped on him after he was drafted and is a believer in the tools so a trade offer for him now might not be the best time. Wait for a slump or buy a little higher than you had to in April. There could be 20/40 potential for him in the big leagues, but the strikeouts would make me look elsewhere in points leagues unless the league is really deep.




Cause for concern?

Aaron Judge

  • May 15-May 29: .170/.259/.170, 0 2B, 0 HR, 4 BB, 15 K, 0 SB
  • 2016: .240/.300/.404, 9 2B, 7 HR, 15 BB, 52 K, 1 SB

I love the power potential with Judge, but after almost a year and a half of being in love with the potential, it is still just potential. I am not panicking and dropping him even in really shallow keeper and dynasty formats. I still have faith in Judge as a top-25 fantasy prospect.

Checking in

  • Cody Bellinger has three home runs in the last 10 games.
  • JD Davis is cooling off a little bit, hitting .262 with 2 homers in his last 10 games.
  • Ben Lively turned in back-to-back outings that leave you wanting more, 13 innings with five earned runs and eight strikeouts.
  • Dylan Cozens has 11 RBIs in his last 10 games, but is only hitting .231 with 16 strikeouts in that stretch.
  • Hunter Dozier has seen his average plummet recently. With Mike Moustakis out for the season he could get a chance in the majors if he picks things back up.
  • Edwin Diaz has nine straight scoreless outings – 9 2/3 innings and 14 strikeouts with only three hits and a walk in that stretch.
  • Dillon Tate saw his ERA go up even more after allowing five earned runs in his last start.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

3 comments on “Minor league report: Look at more than season long numbers

  1. What are your thoughts on Willy Adames breakout thus far?

    • I don’t know if I buy the power. He is still really young so he could have made some adjustments to turn into a better power hitter though, he is on pace for 18-20 homers this year.

      His defense should keep at short for the majority of his career so that is a plus.

      The changes this year are a drop in strikeouts (down 5%) with an uptick in walks (up 3%) from last year.

      I think he has 15/15 ceiling with a more realistic 10-12 in both homers and steals with an average that won’t be a killer, around .260-.270

      As an overall player that isn’t super appealing but as a guy who should stick at short he should be a top-150 fantasy prospect, I had him at number 81 preseason but I wouldn’t have him that high if I redid a list right now.

      • Thanks, appreciate your comments. Steals don’t matter much in our fantasy league, but on-base and slugging matter quite a bit. Doing what he is doing thus far as a 20 year old in AA is pretty impressive. Still a small sample size, but getting larger each day…..

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