Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 31
What a weird day I had yesterday. I had a great feel for both slates and seemed to pick all the right players, but I just didn’t have the right lineup combinations. I ended up cashing in 3 of 8 contests in the a.m and 1 of 2 in the night slate, and was basically even on the day. That despite correctly thinking Matt Harvey would right the ship, having a bunch of Carlos Martinez, Nate Karns and Colin McHugh exposure and stacking the Coors game along with the Astros and Rangers. Oh well – I hope my advice in this column yesterday (especially my touting of Harvey) helped someone out there win big.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- David Ortiz vs. Kevin Gausman – 6/13 with 3 doubles, 2 homers and 2 walks
- Matt Carpenter vs. Wily Peralta – 16/35 with 4 doubles, 3 homers and 4 walks
- Alex Presley vs. Mike Leake – 9/21 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a walk
- Carlos Santana vs. Colby Lewis – 5/12 with 2 homers and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Reds and Rockies – The Coors Field Factor is in effect. Watch for weather though as there is rain in the forecast.
- Cardinals vs. Wily Peralta – The top team in the NL in OPS against RHP faces perhaps the worst RHP in the majors. Sounds like a recipe for success for the hitters. Peralta has allowed the most hits per game of any pitcher in the game and is giving up hard contact at 35% while limiting strikeouts and walking a bunch of guys. In short, he’s not good. Play your Cards.
- Indians vs. Colby Lewis – Colby Lewis’ numbers look exactly like Josh Tomlin’s did coming into yesterday. Essentially unsustainable. Lewis has a strand rate of 83.7% this year which would be a career high and way over his 70.1% career mark. His BABIP allowed sits at .273 which is well below his .299 career mark. And he is near the top of the league in hard contact allowed at 39.1%, and couples that with a low 12.7% soft contact rate which would be the lowest of his career. His luck will run out soon and I’m willing to take the chance that it runs out today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Reds at Rockies – Chance of rain
- Rays at Royals – Chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Steven Matz vs. White Sox – First off, obviously Jake Arrieta is the safest cash game play of the night against a middling Dodgers offense, and I will have some exposure – but Matz is my favorite of the expensive options. He is now up to 7 games in a row of at least 6 innings pitched with 2 runs or less, including twirling a gem his last time out. The White Sox are scuffling and Matz should neutralize them even further.
- J.A. Happ vs. Yankees – This is the 2nd straight Happ start where I don’t understand his low pricing on DraftKings ($7,400). Happ has faced the Yankees twice this year and has held them to 2 runs over 13 innings including tossing 7 innings of 1 run ball while allowing only 3 hits in his last start. Happ has been as solid as ever this year, with one blowup against the Rays mixed in with 8 quality starts. His upside is not huge, but this is a good, safe play.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Jose Altuve vs. Patrick Corbin – The Astros are a good stack in the early game against Corbin who is leading the league in hard contact allowed at 39.9%. Altuve destroys lefties with a .464 wOBA and 202 wRC+.
- Brian Dozier vs. Eric Surkamp – The Twins are a good under the radar stack in the evening slate against Surkamp who has a career ERA of 5.58. Dozier has been great against southpaws with a .425 wOBA and 175 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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