Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 25
This looks like a rough slate today. The good pitchers are facing tough hitting lineups and the good hitting lineups (for the most part) are facing tough pitchers. Nonetheless, there is value to be found today, especially with some lefty/righty splits. Let’s see what we can do.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Mike Trout vs. Colby Lewis – 13/33 with 4 homers 3 doubles and 4 walks
- Rougned Odor vs. Hector Santiago – 10/21 with 3 doubles a homer and 3 walks
- Joe Panik vs. James Shields – 9/17 with 3 doubles a 3 walks
- Melky Cabrera vs. Corey Kluber – 9/19 with 4 doubles
Stacks to Target:
- Diamondbacks vs. Jeff Locke – The Diamondbacks are a great team against left-handed pitching, ranking 5th in MLB versus southpaws with an .817 OPS. And Jeff Locke hasn’t been good this year, only inducing soft contact 13.2% of the time. Should be a nice day for Paul Goldschmidt and co.
- Rays vs. Justin Nicolino – Anyone who reads me knows that I love Tampa Bay against left-handed pitching as they rank a surprising 4th in MLB in OPS versus lefties at .818. Nicolino has been the most baffling pitcher this side of Jered Weaver with a literally unbelievable K/9 of 1.84 (!!!). And it is not like he has been inducing a ton of soft contact as his hard contact rate is elevated at 36.9%. How his ERA is only 4.30 is confounding – even his 5.76 xFIP seems low. The Rays should tattoo this meatball artist today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Royals at Twins – chance of rain
- Cubs at Cardinals – chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Steven Matz vs. Nationals – Tread carefully here. First the good – Matz’s K/9 are up, his BB/9 are down, and he has allowed hard contact only 23.9% of the time. He has a streak of 6 consecutive games with 6+ IP and 2 ER or less and he has struck out 8 batters or more in 4 of those 6 games. Now the bad – Washington pounds lefties, ranking 2nd in OPS versus southpaws at .857. In my mind, Matz is not an ordinary southpaw (like Nicolino or Locke) and I think he will be up to the challenge.
- Dan Straily vs. Dodgers – Straily has been a really pleasant surprise for the Reds with a quality start in 4 of his last 5 games – and the only game pitched that was not quality he pitched a shutout over 5 innings and then was lifted. The Dodgers are banged up and rank only 24th in MLB in OPS versus righties. Straily is a nice cheap option today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- John Jaso vs. Rubby de la Rosa – De La Rosa struggles with left-handed hitters and has for his entire career. Jaso has hit righties at a .371 wOBA and 136 wRC+.
- Steven Souza vs. Justin Nicolino – I often tout Guyer, Longoria and Forsythe (when healthy) against lefties but forget about Mr. Souza. But Souza is as good as the rest against southpaws with a .429 wOBA and 182 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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