DFS – October 3 – Nearing the End

DFS Baseball LogoPaul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for October 3rd.

Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule starting at 1:05 pm.  As always, double-check your lineup prior to the start of each contest for any late scratches and be sure to check the weather report before game time for potential delays or cancellations. Currently the following games are at risk of rain delays or postponement: Yankees at Orioles, Nationals at Mets, Red Sox at Indians, Cardinals at Braves.

 

It looks like more rain on the East Coast today, which will make things interesting for this final weekend of baseball. It’s been a great season and I’m especially proud of the job our team has done here with DFS coverage. Between Neil, Jim and I, this is our 177th straight day of bringing you our top picks. Tomorrow will mark the end of our first season providing this service without missing a single day all year. As Jim and Neil have both noted over the last two days, it has been a long haul. This was a bigger challenge than we knew coming in, but I’m happy to say we did it! I hope you’ve enjoyed our coverage and have made some money in the process. A special thanks to Goose at Fantasy Rundown for promoting our picks every day this year. 

For today, I have scoured the numbers for a few hours and come away with some pretty good match ups. As lineups get released, and weather details start to get clearer, some will drop off as new players get added. It’s a tricky weekend as playoff teams rest their players and non-contending teams give some of their call-ups a little playing time. For now, these are the players that I am most interested in. Good luck!

POS Player Opponent Price Rank
 SP Zack Greinke Padres $12,600  ★★★★
Padres are batting just .235 with a .303 wOBA over the past 30 days. Dodgers are an insane -250 favorites with a 6.5 run score.
 SP Max Scherzer
Mets $13,200  ★★★★
Mets are on cruise control, while Scherzer has a 2.12 ERA and 34 K over his past 4 starts.
 SP Jake Peavy Rockies $8,900  ★★★★
Peavy has been great in Spetember (1.99 ERA) and good at home (3.13 ERA). They’re -170 favorites.
 SP John Lackey
Braves $9,900  ★★★
 Lackey has been awesome to end the year, with a 1.78 September ERA. He’s 2-0, 0.86 ERA lifetime vs Braves.
 SP Shelby Miller
Cardinals $7,700 ★★★
 Do you really believe Miller could get his 17th straight loss while sitting at a 3.15 ERA? I could almost WILL this win to happen.
 SP Kyle Hendricks
Brewers $7,400 ★★
 Brewers are striking out nearly 27% of the time over the past 2 weeks. Hendricks has 17 K over past 2 starts.
 SP Noah Syndergaard Nationals $12,200  
Syndergaard has a 2.57 ERA at home this year with opponents hitting just .204 against them.
 SP A.J. Burnett
Reds
$8,300  ★★
 The Reds have already packed it in with a 36% K rate and a .284 wOBA over past 14 days. Burnett has a 2.40 home ERA.
 C Robinson Chirinos
Hector Santiago
$3,400 ★★★
Chirinos is hitting .375 over the past month and has a .865 OPS vs LHP this year. Santiago struggling with 5.40 ERA in 2nd half
 C Kyle Schwarber Tyler Wagner
$4,400  ★★
Wagner has a 11.74 ERA since his call up, though he has held LHH at bay. Schwarber is slowly coming out of his Sept slump.
 C Hank Conger Jeremy Hellickson
$3,100  ★★★
These two last met in August when Conger went 2-2 with 2 HR. Hellickson has had an ERA over 4.50 in 5 of 6 months this year
1B Chris Davis Ivan Nova
$4,500  ★★★★
Nova is allowing LHH to slug .525 against them. With Davis slugging .591 vs RHP, this has HR written all over it.
1B Mike Napoli Hector Santiago
$3,400 ★★★
Napoli is hitting .311 over the past month and has a .284/.398/.574 line against LHP this year.
1B Justin Bour Colton Murray
$3,700 ★★★
Bour is silencing his critics with 9 HR in the past month. He’s got 23 for the season vs RHP.
1B C.J. Cron Colby Lewis
$3,400  ★★
Cron’s power is almost exclusively against RHP, while Lewis gives up power to everyone. Cron is 4-11 vs Lewis this year.
2B  Rougned Odor Hector Santiago
$4,000  ★★
Odor hits LHP and RHP exactly the same. He hits Santiago especially well though, going 6-11 with 3 doubles and a HR this year
2B Dee Gordon Colton Murray
$4,900  ★★★★ 
Gordon is hitting .330 over the last month and gets the weak RHP in Colton Murray today.
2B Javier Baez/Addison Russell
Tyler Wagner
$2,700-3,400  ★★★★ 
I like both of these 2B vs the weak RHP Wagner. RHH have a 1.048 SLG vs Wagner in 23 plate appearances.
3B Kris Bryant
Tyler Wagner
$5,200  ★★★
Bryant is hitting .336 since Sept 1 and is slugging better (and hitting more HR/AB) vs RHP this year.
3B Travis Shaw
Corey Kluber
$3,100 ★★★
Shaw is hot with a pair of homers this week. Kluber is a tough match-up but Shaw is 1-2 with a HR and a BB vs him this year
3B Jake Lamb
Collin McHugh
$3,100 ★★
McHugh is scuffling while Lamb is hitting RHP at a .275/.341/.409 clip. It’s a long shot, but I don’t like McHugh today.
SS Marcus Semien
Roenis Elias
$3,300 ★★★
Semien is hitting .327 vs LHP this year with a .881 OPS. Elias is super-tough on LHH, but RH can hit him for power.
SS Starlin Castro Tyler Wagner $3,500 ★★★
Castro just keeps hitting and is back over .400 since the start of September.
SS Eduardo Escobar
Yordano Ventura
$3,600 ★★
Escobar has been hitting .290 since the start of August and is 5-7 lifetime (2-2 this year) against Ventura.
OF Lorenzo Cain Tommy Milone
$5,000 ★★★
 Milone has a 5.46 ERA in the second half, while Cain kills LHP hitting .328 with a .934 OPS
OF Mike Trout Colby Lewis
$5,300 ★★★
Not only is Trout hitting .333 with 7 HR in the past 3 weeks, he’s 11-28 with 4 HR vs Lewis in his career.
OF Kole Calhoun Colby Lewis
$3,900 ★★★★ 
Calhoun is 11-26 with a 1.115 OPS vs Lewis lifetime. 17 of his 25 HR are against RHP. 
OF Anthony Gose Erik Johnson
$3,700
Lefties have a .372 wOBA vs Johnson this year and Gose does well against RHP. Tigers may score some runs today.
OF Ryan Raburn Craig Breslow
$2,600 ★★★ 
Raburn is hitting .320 vs LHP this year while Breslow has a 5.05 xFIP and has allowed a .346 wOBA vs RHH.
OF Nelson Cruz
Sean Nolin
$4,900 ★★★
Cruz is going for his 45th HR this year, and could just do it today; has .679 SLG vs LHP.
OF David Murphy
Colby Lewis
$2,700 ★★★ 
A decent punt play today with Murphy who hits RHP well against the very hittable Lewis.
OF Christian Yelich Colton Murray
$4,100 ★★★ 
 Yelich is quietly hitting .322 in the second half, and has a .883 OPS since Sept 1st. 
OF Justin Ruggiano Robbie Erlin
$2,700 ★★  
My favorite discount play today, Ruggiano is hot and hitting .309 with a .963 OPS vs LHP.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly

 

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Paul Hartman
Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.
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