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DFS October 2nd – Why I love Daily Fantasy

DFS Baseball LogoNeil previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for October 2nd.

Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule kicking off at 7:05 p.m. As always, make sure to check your lineup prior to game time for any last-minute scratches, and be sure to check the weather forecast for any potential cancellations.

There are a few games that are in danger of being delayed/cancelled tonight.  New York/Baltimore, Miami/Philly, Washington/New York and Oakland/Seattle all have rain in the forecast.  Cincinnati/Pittsburgh and St Louis/Atlanta have a chance of rain or thunderstorms.  With a tropical storm approaching the east coast, things could get ugly this weekend so choose your picks wisely.

 

Jim wrote a really good and honest article yesterday about why he is not a big fan of Daily Fantasy.  Today I will write to you about why I love the game:

  1. It’s like a draft every day.  What I have always enjoyed most about season-long fantasy leagues is the pre-draft preparation and the actual draft.  It is like an artist with a blank canvas about to start a new painting.  You have an idea of what you want your team to look like, you work on a plan and then after a few hours of work, you have a mostly finished product.  Daily Fantasy allows me to enjoy that team building aspect of drafting whenever I choose to play.
  2. It’s like Sunday in head-to-head leagues every day.  Once the season gets started, I enjoy head-to-head leagues most and my favorite day is Sunday.  If my match-up is close, I am always glued to my TV on Sundays watching my players and watching the games with intensity.  Daily fantasy allows that same intense feeling every day as you try to place in your contests.
  3. You can choose your favorite players. I play in 6 season-long baseball fantasy leagues and I had never owned Mike Trout until this year.  I never had the right draft position and never got to experience owning this phenomenal player.  Daily fantasy allows me to cheer for any player I want on any given day.  It is not prudent to pick players unless they have a good match-up, but when Trout faces a weak lefty, I get to cheer him on.
  4. It’s not all about the Benjamins – but it doesn’t hurt.  I consider myself a fairly skilled daily fantasy player but I have yet to have a cashout over $400.  That having been said, it is fun to know that instead of choosing lineups against 12 people, you get to test your skills against a few hundred/thousand entries, and if you happen to have done your homework correctly that there is a nice carrot at the end of the stick.

The game is not for everyone, and as Jim stated, it does take a lot of work and research to really put together a good lineup.  But just because it is daily fantasy does not mean that you need to play daily.  If you want to do your homework one day a week, you can play DFS just that day.  The game is fun and intense.
Let’s see how my picks do today, and don’t forget my NFL DFS picks for week 4.

Starting Pitchers

Studs: Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs ($13,700), Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets ($10,800)

  • ERA of 0.80 (!!!) and wOBA allowed of .182 in the 2nd half of the season.  The Brewers aren’t likely the team to cool down the hottest pitcher in the majors.
  • 2.57 home ERA and a wOBA allowed of .243 at home on the season.

Bang for Your Buck: Jamie Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals ($9,800), Henry Owens, Boston Red Sox ($8,000)

  • 2.36 ERA on the season and faces off against the anemic Braves offense.
  • I had the pleasure of being at Fenway on Sunday and watching Owens pitch and boy was he impressive.  My amateur scouting eye is confident that he’ll silence the Indians’ bats.

Hail Mary: Justin Nicolino, Miami Marlins ($4,500), Ariel Pena, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,100)

  • 7.2 IP, 5 HA, 2 ER allowed in his start against the Phillies this year.
  • Don’t expect the 4 points for a win against Arrieta today, but Pena has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 4 starts and has struck out nearly a batter an inning.  Great price.

Catcher

Studs: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants ($4,200)

8/15 with a walk in his career against Kyle Kendrick.

Bang for your buck: Travis d’Arnaud ($3,500)

DraftKings has been schizophrenic with their pricing of d’Arnaud.  Had been too expensive for a while but too cheap today.  .479 wOBA and 215 wRC+ vs. lefties and play against Gio Gonzalez today.

Hail Mary: Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,400)

.384 wOBA against lefties on the season and faces southpaw Nicolino.

First Base

Studs: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals ($4,500)

.382 wOBA and 144 wRC+ against righties on the season.  Also 4/11 with 2 homers in his career against Ervin Santana.

Bang for your buck: Justin Bour, Miami Marlins ($3,800)

Aaron Harang is brutal against lefties and Bour has a solid .274/.330/.526 line against righties on the year.

Hail Mary: Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers ($3,100)

He has a quad boo-boo so may not be in the line-up, but if Martinez plays he is 16/34 with 4 homers in his career against Pale Hose ace Chris Sale.

Second Base

Studs: Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners ($4,500)

Faces the very hittable Aaron Brooks and has a great .332/.388/.540 2nd half line.

Bang for your buck: Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates ($3,500)

Keyvius Sampson is terrible and Walker hits righties well with a .341 wOBA.

Hail Mary: Donovan Solano, Miami Marlins ($2,000)

8/11 with a homer in his career against Aaron Harang.

Shortstop

Studs: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians ($4,600)

.336/.379/.545 slash line against lefties and plays against Henry Owens today.

Bang for your buck: Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants ($3,900)

Love this match-up against Kyle Kendrick.  .342 wOBA against righties on the season.

Hail Mary: Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,500)

.485 slugging percentage versus lefties on the year.  Faces southpaw Mark Buehrle.

Third Base

Studs: Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants ($4,300)

4/7 with 3 extra-base hits in his career against Kyle Kendrick.

Bang for your buck: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees ($4,200)

.398 wOBA and 154 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and hits against Wei-Yin Chen today.

Hail Mary: Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates ($3,100)

23 homers and .472 slugging percentage versus righties.  Keyvius Sampson gives up a lot of hits and a lot of runs.

Outfield

Studs: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates ($4,700), Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels ($5,500), Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates ($4,700)

  • I like a Pirates stack against Keyvius Sampson, and McCutchen should be a part of any Pirates stack.
  • Trout has been hot as a pistol recently with a 1.182 OPS over his last 10 games.  Should tee off against lefty Martin Perez.
  • Another guy I think will destroy Sampson.  .341 wOBA and 119 wRC+ versus righties.

Bang for your buck: Shin-Soo Choo ($4,200), Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates ($3,700), Marcel Ozuna, Miami Marlins ($3,400)

  • .404/.515/.625 line in September.  And destroys Jered Weaver going 15/39 with 6 XBH.
  • Will lead off against Sampson.  .327 wOBA and 109 wRC+ in the 2nd half.
  • 7/21 with 2 homers in his career against Aaron Harang.

Hail Mary: Mikie Mahtook, Tampa Bay Rays ($3,200), Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,600), Chris Young, New York Yankees ($2,600)

  • .429 wOBA and 181 wRC+ against lefties on the year and faces Justin Nicolino.
  • Ruf kills lefties with a .460 wOBA and 196 wRC+.
  • .405 wOBA and 159 wRC+ versus lefties. Faces off against Wei-Yin Chen.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.
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4 comments on “DFS October 2nd – Why I love Daily Fantasy

  1. I get and as a player I’ll concede and acknowledge all your points, sans one.

    It is all about the Benjamen’s. You and everyone else can say no it’s not, and maybe you’ll even convince yourself with your own arguments. Do you want to prove it?

    Do all the work you would normally do, play in the exact same number of leagues you would normally play in, and do this for a month straight. The catch is – play in ONLY FREE leagues. No money what-so-ever. You play for one month and after that month you tell me that you got the same enjoyment out of playing for free that you would have gotten playing for money. And not just you, any of you who say it’s not about the money but about X, prove it and put your money where your mouth is.

    No carrot on a stick, just testing your skills against hundreds/thousands of people. That should not be a problem, right? Almost all of us play in seasonal leagues for no money, so surely this should not be a problem.

  2. Well – I said it’s not all about the Benjamins but it doesn’t hurt. I have indeed played free daily and I like the game, but admit to liking paid contests more.

    Here is the point – I don’t play expecting a big payout and my goal (as with any other fantasy game) is to end up with an even balance sheet at the end of the year. That having been said, part of the fun of daily fantasy is the (very remote) possibility that you can make 4,5 or even 6 figures if the stars align.

    For $3, I can mindlessly pick numbers and play the lottery and watch 6 balls being spit out of a machine, or I can research baseball and football (something I do anyway) and see if I can pick the 8-10 best players of the day and watch live sporting events and be engaged.

    I love my sports, and I love to have a rooting interest in the games that I am watching. Fantasy is a tool for that, daily fantasy is a tool for that and team fandom is a tool for that (so is sports betting which, if you are betting parlays through the Provincial government is legal in Canada). For different reasons I enjoy all of those activities. But daily fantasy really appeals to the “roster constructor” in me.

  3. Heads up, Pedro Alvarez does not play for the Steelers lol. I thought it was funny tho. With Football here and all..

  4. I have been making that mistake over and over since I started writing DFS football as well….

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