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Week 3 NFL DraftKings Picks – Jumpin’ Jaguars!

I really hit on my receiver picks last week but struggled with my running backs.  Hopefully you all listened to me when it came to receivers Michael Crabtree and Pierre Garcon but ignored my picks of Carlos Hyde and Jeremy Hill.  

This week, I am not going to shy away from picking some Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Patriots will likely get ahead, and in the first two weeks of the season, both the Steelers and Bills have put up huge fantasy points in garbage time against the world champs.  I think the Jaguars will do the same this week.

Any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @nschnurbach

Quarterbacks

Luxury Items: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($7,000)

  • It is early in the season and a little early to rely on Football Outsiders’ Defensive Efficiency Ratings, but I will do so nonetheless.  The Bears are currently 32nd against the pass per that metric.  Wilson and the Seahawks are angry, and could put up a huge offensive game.  Wilson also is obviously a threat with his legs as well.  This could be a huge game for Russell.

Bang for Your Buck: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals ($6,600)

  • Eventually DraftKings is going to have to raise Palmer’s price, right?  Until then, I will recommend him every week.  Palmer has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 8 of his last 9 starts.  I see no reason why that will change against the 49ers who allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw at will against them last week.  

Discount Bin: Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,100)

  • Borltes threw for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns against no picks last week and has a very respectable total QBR of 59.97 after 2 games.  More importantly, the Patriots have allowed 260 passing yards per game and the Jaguars will have to throw to keep it close.

Running Back

Luxury Items: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,400), Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders ($5,800)

  • The Packers have been very impressive this year, save for one specific area.  They have been dreadful against the run.  The Packers have allowed 308 yards on the ground through the first two weeks.  Jamaal Charles now enters the stadium and he will be looking to avenge his last second fumble on Thursday night of last week.  I’m thinking it’s a big game.
  • The only team who has allowed more yards on the ground than Green Bay is the Cleveland Browns.  Cleveland has allowed a whopping 320 yards thus far on the young season.  Latavius Murray is a nice talent who had 4.33 yards per carry last week while scoring a touchdown.

Bang for your Buck: Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts ($4,500), Dion Lewis, New England Patriots ($4,200)

  • Frank Gore had an ugly goal line fumble last week and his surface numbers do not look encouraging.  But watching the Colts play, Gore actually looked quite shifty and reasonably fast.  Moreover, there are no options behind him.  Both he and the Colts are bound to break out, and I think it happens this week.  My start of the day among running backs.
  • The easiest mistake to make with respect to DraftKings is to forget its scoring format.  DraftKings is full point PPR scoring, and pass catching running-backs carry tremendous value.  LeGarrette Blount will eventually see the field, but the Jaguars are 18th against the pass and 2nd against the run per Football Outsiders.  I expect another short passing game plan and I could see Lewis catching another 6 balls like he did last week and playing the majority of snaps.

Discount Bin: Ryan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,300), Bilal Powell, New York Jets ($3,000)

  • The Eagles haven’t been able to run the ball a lick and now they face the Jets’ stout defensive line.  That having been said, DeMarco Murray left practice yesterday with hamstring tightness.  Matthews may carry the rock all game and get goal line looks.  I’m not expecting a big yardage total, but for this price, 50 yards and a touchdown would be a nice game.
  • Powell is on the other side of the field to Matthews and also may have a chance to play.  Chris Ivory is nursing a groin injury and may play or be limited.  If Powell plays he also faces a decent run defense, but the Jets will try to pound the ball.  Could be 75+ yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver

Luxury Items: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($9.000), Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($7,300), AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,200)

  • Julio has been targeted a whopping 26 times and has caught 22 of those targets.  The Cowboys’ defense has been nice thus far, but they don’t have defensive back Orlando Scandrick, and I don’t see anyone who can handle Jones.  He’ll get 13+ targets, and probably 8-10 catches with nice yards, and maybe a score.
  • Jordy Nelson is gone for the season, Eddie Lacy is hobbled, Davante Adams is banged up.  The only core members of the Packers’ vaunted offense who will be 100% healthy on Sunday are Aaron Rodgers and Cobb.  Cobb is 31st in the NFL with 16 targets thus far this year.  I think he gets at least 10 more looks and takes advantage of them.
  • Michael Crabtree had 9 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown and Amari Cooper had 7 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens last week.  AJ Green has not yet gotten on track, but this game looks like his breakout game.

Bang for your Buck: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7.000), Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Bucs ($6,600), Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins ($6,400)

  • Once again, a friendly reminder that DraftKings utilizes PPR scoring.  Edelman is far and away the leader in the NFL in targets with 31 which is 5 more than 2nd place.  The Patriots are intent on passing the ball, and Edelman should get 10+ more targets again this week.  He also caught multiple touchdowns last week and the Patriots don’t shy away from using him in the red zone.
  • Mike Evans says that he is not on a “pitch count” this week after being limited last week.  It is easy to forget how good he was last year after he has been held off the score sheet thus far this season.  Evans is ready to bust out this week. 
  • Jarvis Landry is tied for 8th in the NFL with 22 targets and is 5th in the NFL in catches with 16.  Landry seems to always be underpriced on DraftKings and is so again today.  Also, while I like the Bills defense, they did allow Tom Brady to throw for 466 yards on them last week with mostly short and intermediate throws and Landry is a master at catching those.  I am definitely going to have Landry in many of my lineups.

Discount Bin: Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders ($4,600), Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,200), Cecil Shorts III, Houston Texans ($3,500)

  • I am going back to the well with Crabtree who was awesome last week.  The erstwhile #1 receiver of the 49ers is 5th in the NFL in targets as Derek Carr has been looking for him.  It is not long ago that Crabtree had 85 catches for 1,100+ yards and 9 touchdowns.  I think it could be that kind of season for him again.
  • Robinson is 8th in the NFL with 182 yards receiving, so this would be a great price for him regardless.  But on top of that, he faces off against the Patriots, who are susceptible to giving up passing yards, especially in garbage time.  Robinson will likely approach 100 yards receiving again.
  • DeAndre Hopkins suffered a concussion in week 2 and has been held out of practice thus far this week.  Shorts looks like he will be the #1 receiver for the Texans this week.  Even as the #2 receiver, Shorts is 15th in the NFL with 20 targets.  He will likely see quite a few more balls his way this week and is excellent value at this price.

Tight End

Luxury Item: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($7,400)

  • Gronk is far and away the most expensive tight-end on DraftKings, so I haven’t played him nor recommended him through the first two weeks.  That having been said, he leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 4, is 3rd in the NFL (and 1st among tight-ends) in receiving yards, and is first among tight-ends in targets with 21.  He’ll be good every week, and I figured I should write about him at some point.

Bang for your Buck: Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins ($3,800)

  • Reed already has 17 targets and 145 yards receiving on the season.  DeSean Jackson is hurt, and Reed is taking full advantage.  In week #1, Dallas tight-ends scored 3 touchdowns on the Giants, and the underwhelming Jacob Tamme of the Falcons even had a nice game against the Giants last week.  I think this will be a huge week for Reed if he can stay on the field.

Discount Bin: Gary Barnridge, Cleveland Browns ($2,500)

  • In week 1, the Raiders allowed 2 touchdowns to tight-end Tyler Eifert and then last week, they allowed 2 more touchdowns to the Ravens’ Crockett Gilmore.  The Browns’ Gary Barnridge could be the beneficiary of the Raiders’ poor coverage on tight-ends.  Pretty reasonable price for a dart throw.

Defense/Special Teams

Bang for your buck: Seattle Seahawks ($3,400) vs. Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos ($3,000) @ Detroit Lions

  • I can’t see the Seahawks allowing more than 10 points to Jimmy Clausen and the Bears.  There will be turnovers and sacks galore.  In all honesty, the Seahawks should be near universally played given the very limited price difference between them and the other defenses.
  • The Broncos have wreaked havoc thus far this season and that should continue against the Lions.  Matthew Stafford tends to have a few games where the throws several balls to the wrong team and with Denver’s swarming defense coming to town, this could be that game.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.

One comment on “Week 3 NFL DraftKings Picks – Jumpin’ Jaguars!

  1. I picked my own QB, but used every other recommendation Neil offered.
    Came in 2nd out of 100 and won a free shirt over at http://fantasyteamadvice.com/

    Funny part is, I have not played fantasy football since 2008; I just trusted Neil to know his stuff…apparently he does 🙂

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