I had some great hits last week including Eddie Lacy, Bishop Sankey (!!), Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, Stevie Johnson and the Panthers D. We also had some misses like Nelson Agholar, Eddie Royal and Greg Olsen. Overall though, it was a quite a successful first week of the NFL season for me as I had a nice cash in the Millionaire Maker contest on DraftKings.
For week 2, I am banking on some injury replacements. Dez Bryant is hurt? Let’s target Terrence Williams at a low price in a favorable match-up. Andre Ellington went down? Can I interest you in Chris Johnson at a bargain basement price? This is always a good way to approach your NFL DraftKings lineups. Let’s get on with the nitty-gritty.
Any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @nschnurbach.
Luxury Items: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints ($7,800)
- Last week, the Bucs were at home against a rookie quarterback making his first start and they allowed Marcus Mariotta to carve them up for 4 touchdowns. Drew Brees should be able to do some major damage. Last year at home versus Tampa, Brees threw for 371 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Bang for Your Buck: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins ($7,000)
- I love Tannehill in this match-up. In 2 career starts versus Jacksonville, he has rushed for his most yards against any opponent (100 yards) and has completed 67% of his passes.
Discount Bin: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals ($6,700)
- Palmer was amazing last week with 307 yards and 3 touchdowns. Averaged 271 yards per game and 2 touchdowns when he played last year. The Bears pass defense is fairly weak and I see a good game from Palmer.
Luxury Items: LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills ($6,600), Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,400)
- The Patriots looked terrible in their run fits on season opening Thursday night as they were barely able to contain DeAngelo Williams. LeSean McCoy and the Bills will have a run heavy game plan against the Pats and it might be a huge game for him.
- Jeremy Hill looked good against Oakland last week and, in my opinion, he might be the best running back in the NFL. Detroit didn’t run the ball very much against San Diego last week, but when they did, Ameer Abdullah did a good job. Hill should be up near or over 100 yards.
Bang for your Buck: Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers ($5,100), Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans ($4,500)
- Carlos Hyde might have been the most impressive running back in the NFL last week, and is still quite cheap this week. Pittsburgh had some trouble with Dion Lewis last week who hadn’t played in the NFL since 2012. Carlos Hyde should add to his league leading rushing total.
- I can’t believe that I am going to this well twice, but Sankey is a clear starting running back. It is very early in the season, but Cleveland is 29th in the NFL in DVOA versus the rush so far. Tennessee should be ahead most of the game and I could see 20+ carries, 80+ yards and a touchdown for the Bishop.
Discount Bin: Chris Johnson, Arizona Cardinals ($3,800), Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns ($3,400)
- I am not a big fan of Johnson’s talent, but anyone with a starting gig at this price is worth it. Bruce Arians has proclaimed that Chris Johnson is his bell-cow for this game. Will get some end-zone looks and plenty of carries versus the Bears. A worthwhile GPP play.
- Isaiah Crowell looked downright awful last week and Duke Johnson should be in line for a bigger workload versus Tennessee. I also expect the Browns to fall behind and Johnson to catch some balls this weekend.
Luxury Items: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,800), Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($8,900), Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles ($7,100)
- The safest bet that there is in DFS or season long fantasy. Antonio Brown has had 5+ catches and 50+ yards every game for over 2 seasons. Vikings receiver Mike Wallace, a much less talented receiver than Brown had 6 catches on 7 targets against the 49ers. Brown is probably in line for 10-12 catches and 100+ yards.
- Jones had an impressive game with 9 catches, 141 yards and 2 TDs in week 1. This week he faces a not so formidable Giants secondary who are 20th in DVOA against the pass thus far on the season. Julio should duplicate the 11 targets he had last week and duplicate the production as well.
- I was very excited about Nelson Agholar last week, who I thought was the Eagles’ 1A receiver. But in a game that Sam Bradford threw 52 times, Agholar was only targeted twice. You know who was targeted a whopping 13 times? Jordan Matthews, who is fairly cheap and has a nice match-up against Dallas.
Bang for your Buck: Andre Johnson, Indianapolis Colts ($5,800), Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins ($5,000), Terrence Williams, Dallas Cowboys ($4,200)
- All three of my “Bang for your Buck” receivers get a bump due to injuries to #1 receivers, as TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Dez Bryant are all out for their respective teams. Johnson’s final line against the Bills looked terrible last week as he caught 4 balls for 24 yards, but he was targeted 10 times. His targets will likely hit double figures again with Hilton out. I actually think that Donte Moncrief will draw coverage from Darrelle Revis and I think Johnson can have a pretty decent game.
- A very nice price for Garcon who is the #1 receiver in Washington with DeSean Jackson down. Garcon looked impressive last week with 6 catches on 8 targets for 74 yards and looks poised to recapture some of his 2013 form. St. Louis will be hard to run on, and I think Kirk Cousins will have to throw many short passes to Garcon to keep the Skins afloat.
- The Eagles defense has allowed a 100 yard receiver in its last 4 games, dating back to last season. Dez Bryant is out, but in steps Terrence Williams in the #1 receiver role. He won’t match what Julio Jones did last week, but 7 catches for 90 yards and a score is a reasonable ask.
Discount Bin: Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders ($4,100), Rashad Greene, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,500), Brandon Coleman, New Orleans Saints ($3,300)
- Crabtree caught only 5 balls for 37 yards last week, but he passed the eye test, and, more importantly, he was targeted quite frequently by Oakland with 8 balls thrown his way. For this cheap price, let’s see if this former top flight receiver can seize his new opportunity.
- You may have noticed that targets are my favorite category for receivers. I don’t know much about Greene, but he had a whopping 13 balls thrown his way last week. Jacksonville will likely be playing from behind, and if this guy has this many opportunities, he is worth a dart throw in PPR format of DraftKings.
- As I mentioned when discussing Drew Brees, the Bucs allowed 4 touchdown tosses to the pop gun offense of the Titans at home last week. The Saints’ powerhouse passing unit comes to town, and I think that Coleman has overtaken Marques Colston as the #2 receiver in New Orleans. Coleman caught a touchdown last week and I think another is coming this week for the tall red-zone threat.
Luxury Item: Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks ($5,800)
- Graham seems to have taken to his new surroundings in Seattle, already catching 6 of 8 targets last week including a touchdown. The Packers let up a touchdown to a tight-end last week against the Bears, and Graham scored against them last year. I expect a couple of red zone looks and a touchdown for Mr. Graham.
Bang for your Buck: Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions ($3,300)
- After a rough rookie season where he caught only one touchdown, the 2013 10th overall pick already caught a TD last week and had a career high 53 yards receiving. It looks like he is going to be more of a focal point this year. Before the year is up, I think Ebron will cost closer to $5,000 on DraftKings. Take advantage of this low price now.
Discount Bin: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers ($3,000)
- Davis had 6 targets last week which is as many as he had in any game last year and had 47 yards receiving which is more than he had in any game last year. He looked like he was running much better than he did in 2014 as well. The Steelers just let up 4 touchdowns to tight-ends last week, and while Davis is no Gronk, I think he could do some damage.
Bang for your buck: Miami Dolphins ($3,300) at Jacksonville, St. Louis Rams ($3,100) at Washington, Tennessee Titans ($3,000) at Cleveland
- I won’t get into too much analysis but Blake Bortles, Kirk Cousins and Johnny Manziel are the three quarterbacks who are most likely to throw the ball to the wrong team. These are your best defensive plays.
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach