DFS – June 27 – A Hard Rain’s a Gonna Fall

Paul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for June 27th.

Today we have a full slate of games on the MLB schedule starting at 1:07 p.m. Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as there may be issues with the following games: Washington at Philadelphia, Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Chicago (AL) vs Detroit, Cincinnati at New York (NL), Cleveland at Baltimore.
Make sure to check your lineups before game times for late scratches or further weather issues. 

It looks a nasty weather day today all around as even in Sarnia, Ontario we’re under a severe rainfall warning. If you’re going to play today, just make sure you are able to pay close attention all day as there are quite a few games that may be in jeopardy.

Today is a land mine for starting pitchers unless you are willing to pay top dollar. I’ve found a couple of lower priced options which will allow me to get some big bats into today’s contest. It should be, if there aren’t cancellations, a very high-scoring Saturday around the majors. I’m hoping to capitalize on that while not conceding my SP slots. Here are my picks:

1. Garrett Richards, SP, Los Angeles Angels ($9,400) So many top options for SP1 today, but I’m going to sit back with Richards at home against the Mariners. Seattle is the 2nd worst team in the majors against RHP with just a .287 wOBA, striking out 22.9% of the time. For the month of June, no team has been as bad as the Mariners offensively, as they sit with just a .270 wOBA while striking out at a rate of 23.6%. Richards for his career has held them to a 2.45 ERA in 14 games and has just a 2.23 ERA at home this year. Vegas has the Angels as -155 favorites with just 7 runs as the over/under. Richards may not be the glamor pick, but I think he’s a safe bet today.

2. Charlie Morton, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates ($6.200) I’m going back AGAIN to the well Will with this pick, relying on yesterday’s Field of Streams. Will Emerson does a great job with these streamers and I’m on a roll when I choose from there. Here’s what he had to say about Charlie Morton:

“Chuckie Morton was knocked around quite a bit by the Nats on Sunday, but that’s the Nats. There was a reason I did not recommend starting him in that matchup guys and gals. Aside from that Sunday debacle against the Nats, Morton has been pretty decent. In the previous five starts, Morton allowed only eight earned runs…total. Plus, even after the rough outing against the Nats, Morton still carries with him a 3.59 SIERA and that Nats start is the only one of his six 2015 starts where he allowed more than three earned runs. The good news for Chuck is the Braves are not the Nationals. I mean, literally, that is obvious, yes, but you know what I am getting at here. Over the past two weeks, no one has had a lower isolated power than the Braves, so there should be a low implodability factor here.”

Vegas also agrees with Will, having the Pirates as -160 favorites with a game score of just 7 runs.

3. Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles ($4,600) Don’t look now, but Davis is on pace for 34 home runs and 95 RBI! At home, he has been spectacular this year, batting .277/.358/.942 and today he goes up against Cody Anderson of the Indians. Anderson pitched well in his first major league game, but that was the Rays; this is in Baltimore, where Davis has 11 HR already this year. ZiPS has Anderson at a 6.30 ERA for the rest of the year, while Steamer projects him at 4.53. Any way you slice it, he’s likely to get hit hard a few times, and Davis and the Orioles seem like a logical starting place. 

4. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers ($5,500) This is how I spent my half of my savings going from Kershaw to Garrett Richards (the other half went to Trout). Cabrera is other-worldly as you know, batting .350/.455/.588 this year with 15 HR and 53 RBI. His opponent today is John Danks of the White Sox who doesn’t fare well against RH bats, allowing a .398 wOBA this year. Incredibly, he’s given up 35 XBH to RH hitters already in just 257 AB. The only thing that could stop Miggy today from having abig game is the rain. 

5. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels ($5,300) Trout doesn’t have Cabrera’s numbers this year, hitting just .296/.383/.567 for the year. That’s only marginally better than last year’s MVP Season. Fortunately, Trout has his OPS back up over 1.000 for the month of June so there is still hope. Today he faces LHP J.A. Happ of the Mariners, who has kept Trout relatively at bay in 8 PA, allowing just a double and 3 walks. I like Trout to keep up his torrid month, where he’s only had one day where he hasn’t been on base.

6. Josh Reddick, OF, Oakland Athletics ($3,700) Someone at Draft Kings needs to get fired for setting this price point on Josh Reddick today. Against RHP, Reddick has a .337/.395/.558 line for the year and today, and even with his “slow-down” after a ferocious May, he’s hit in 15 of 18 games this month. Today he faces KC RHP Chris Young. who may have a 2.83 ERA for the year, but his 5.11 xFIP tells a completely different (truer) story. Young was hit hard his last time out, and I’m looking at Reddick to continue punishing right-handers today.

7. David Murphy, OF, Cleveland Indians ($3,000) Murphy is my go-to guy when the Indians face a RHP and I need a good cheap bat. For the year, he’s hitting .328/.365/.482 against right-handers and his power has gotten better every month. Today he faces Chris Tillman who has had less success this year against RH hitters (neutral for career), but with a 6.22 ERA it’s not like any one is going hungry. There are plenty of pitchers to pick on today; Tillman is just one. I managed to spread the bats around with the Tigers the only team to have 2 in my lineup. In tournament play, I’d more aggressively pick a couple of games to key in on, but with the uncertain weather I like that I won’t get caught making too many last minute changes.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly

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Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.