Paul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for June 21st.
Today we have a full slate of games on the MLB schedule starting at 1:08 p.m. As always, keep an eye on the weather forecast as there may be issues with the following game: Miami at Cincinnati.
Always make sure to check your lineups before game times for late scratches or further weather issues.
Today, and every Sunday will be about having fun with DFS at DraftKings. No worrying about losing any money, no risk to try a new strategy and no lying to your wife about your losses. We’re having Sunday FUNday here at Fantasy Assembly! You’ll need to sign up for DraftKings (no cost), and we’ll play for free every Sunday. Today the contest is just for the first 50 people, including some of the writers here. The top three finishers will have their names published next Sunday right here. I reduced the entries from 100 to 50 just to make sure we would fill up early today after last week’s failed attempt to increase to 100. It’s better to have a small group than to have that happen again! With no official results I had to do something different with this week’s winner’s circle.
To join in today’s free contest, click the magic hat and set your lineup. I’ll send you my recommendations below as well as my full lineup on twitter (@fantasyassembly). This is your chance to play with some of the team here at Fantasy Assembly risk-free each week, and maybe have your name published in our Winner’s Circle.
So play, and have yourself a Sunday FUNday!
When I made my Top 100 prospect list for 2015, I noted that up to 1/3 of the players listed could debut in 2015. Three months into the season, that number stands at an incredible 26. In dynasty leagues if you chose this year (as I did in all of mine) to sell some youth to build up your team for a title run you are likely (as I am) kicking yourself in the ass. This is truly the year of the prospect. With all the recent call-ups it is possible to field an entire DFS lineup (excluding arms) with awesome talent strictly by using rookies today. This is not a strategy for every day obviously, but I think I can be competitive today and am willing to risk giving up my 3 hard-earned spots in the winner’s circle by doing just that. For those that know me, you know this is not just a fun ruse; I believe some of the best talent in the game today can be found among these picks.
1. Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago Cubs ($9,600) Arrieta may just be 6-5 with a 3.40 ERA for the season, but all I see is a 2.80 xFIP and a 27% K rate. Today he faces the Twins who are ranked 24th overall against RHP for the year, and for the month of June have the 3rd worst wOBA overall. They also have the 9th worst K rate at 20.6%, which should mean more than 1 per inning for Arrieta today. Vegas has the Cubs at just -120 favorites with a game score of 8 making this a bit risky at the price. I like Arrieta to continue his dominance over the past 2 seasons, and am hoping it actually shows up for him in the boxscore.
2. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals ($9,100) Wacha faces the Phillies today, who for the month of June, actually have a better wOBA than the Twins. Of course at .281 vs .280 it’s really neither here nor there. St. Louis of course is a massive favorite today, with Vegas handicapping at -240! There’s good reason for that as Wacha is 9-2 with a 2.48 ERA for the year, while the Phillies are the worst team in the majors against RHP. Sometimes DFS can be as simple as good pitcher, good team vs bad pitcher, bad team.
3. Kyle Schwarber, C, Chicago Cubs ($3,500): With a week of interleague play, the Cubs brought up Schwarber to serve as their DH in the AL games. If you haven’t read Steve Carter’s piece on Schwarber, you’re doing yourself a disservice. Today he faces Kyle Gibson of the Twins after hitting .389/.389/.667 through his first 4 games. Gibson’s ERA is just 3.33 for the year, but with his xFIP at 4.14 and both ZiPS and Steamer projecting even higher than that for the year, you can expect a few bumps along the way. With little strikeout ability, I expect Gibson to have one of those bumps today against a dynamic Cubs offense.
4. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros ($4,000) No all-rookie lineup would be complete without Correa (or Bryant) in it. Correa has a .926 OPS since his debut and is even better against LHP at 1.027. In 12 games, Correa has failed to get on base just once, and has 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases already. Today’s opponent J.A. Happ has been outstanding at home this year, but this is a 4.00 ERA who strikes out RH at half the rate as he does left-handers. As good as Happ has been, Correa has been better. I expect that to continue today.
5. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers ($3,900): Pederson faces off against Tim Lincecum today and has a .928 OPS against RHP for the year. Lincecum has been extremely effective against LH hitters this year, but in his last 5 starts has a 5.61 ERA averaging just over 5 innings per start. Pederson meanwhile is on pace for 40 home runs and a near-.400 OBP as he takes top rookie billing right now in the majors. I’d start him most days, but I especially like this match-up.
6. Randal Grichuk, OF, St. Louis Cardinals ($3,600) Grichuk hit 2 home runs last night in Philadelphia and now has a .294/.315/.597 line for the season. Today he faces Adam Morgan. My first question was “who the heck is Adam Morgan?”. It turns out he’s a LHP pitcher with a 11% K rate and 9% BB rate who is 2-13 lifetime in AAA. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think this is going to end well for the Phillies today. Start Grichuk with confidence!
7. Ben Paulsen, OF, Colorado Rockies ($3,400): Paulsen goes up against Matt Garza in Colorado today, where he’s hitting .308/.379/.596 for the season. Meanwhile, Garza has given up 13 home runs already this year, with a 1.58 WHIP against LH hitters. This should be a high-scoring affair at Coors and even in the 6th spot in the lineup, Paulsen should get his share of points today.
It’s Father’s Day, so enjoy your day today with your families. That’s my plan!! In case I don’t get to tweet the rest of my lineup, it includes: Billy Burns (4,200), Addison Russell (3,700), Kris Bryant (4,900)
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly
Need more DFS picks, Waiver wire suggestions, prospect news and general fantasy baseball goodness, head on over to Fantasy Rundown.