- Liberty National Golf Club
- Jersey City, New Jersey
- Par 71
- 7,353 yards
- Designed by Robert Cupp and Tom Kite in 2006, it’s right on the water with a view of the Statue of Liberty
- It hosted the Northern Trust in 2009 (which was called the Barclays back then) & 2013, and the Presidents Cup in 2017
- The course was made easier (shorter rough) after the 2009 Barclays but still plays harder than the average course
- There are 10 water hazards, close to 100 bunkers, and fescue surrounding many of the holes
- Bentgrass greens & fairways, bluegrass rough
- The greens are fast and undulating
- SG: tee-to-green
- SG: approaching-the-green
- SG: off-the-tee
- Birdie or better
This week marks the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs which will only be three events this year instead of four. The field will be 125 of the top players in the FedEx Cup standings excluding Paul Casey (rest), Henrik Stenson (European Tour), and Sam Burns (injury). The cut line will be at the top 70 including ties: even with a smaller 125 man field.
Big Dogs ($9,000 and up on DK)
- Webb Simpson ($9,400 DK – $11,200 FD) – Simpson is coming off of back-to-back 2nd place finishes at the Wyndham Championship and the WGC-St. Jude Invitational. His worst finish at the Northern Trust in the last four years is a 48th place finish with two other top 30’s and he even finished 6th in the event two years ago. The last time it was held at Liberty National was back in 2013 where Webb finished 15th. He’s been playing some great golf this year and is currently in a stretch of nine straight made cuts dating back through April (all in the top 30).
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,200 DK – $11,300 FD) – Cantlay is also in great form making his last eight cuts since the Masters and he’s only finished worse than 21st in one of those tournaments (41st at the Open). He’s also played in the Northern Trust in the last two years and both of those were top 10 finishes. He’s been one of the best on Tour in SG: tee-to-green since 2017 and he’s been improving each year.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,400 DK – $12,000 FD)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800 DK – $11,000 FD)
- Dustin Johnson ($10,700 DK – $11,900 FD) – DJ’s best finish in his last five events has been 20th; Candian Open & WGC-St. Jude Invitational. He hasn’t been scoring great in the last couple months but in the last four years at the Northern Trust his worst finish was 18th and his worst finish in the four playoff events last season was 24th. His recent form might steer people away but history tells us that Johnson should rebound any week now.
- Rickie Fowler ($9,300 DK – $11,100 FD) – the last time we saw Rickie he finished 6th at the Open but before that he had a missed cut at the Scottish Open and two finishes just outside of 40th place at the Rocket Mortgage and the U.S. Open. He didn’t play in the first two events of the playoffs last year but finished in the top 10 in both the BMW Championship and Tour Championship (the final two events in the playoffs). The last time the Northern Trust was held at Liberty National he was also in the top 10 so even though he isn’t currently playing his best golf; I still trust him in these type of events.
- Justin Thomas ($10,000 DK – $11,400 FD)
Value ($7,400 – $8,900 on DK)
- Collin Morikawa ($8,500 DK – $10,500 FD) – since the Canadian Open, Morikawa has played in six events on Tour and hasn’t finished worse than 36th in that time. Only one of his last 16 rounds have been over par and 12 of those 16 rounds have been -3 or better. It’s kind of scary to see him priced this high in such a loaded field but I will continue to roll the dice on Morikawa until he let’s me down.
- Tyrell Hatton ($7,500 DK – $9,300 FD) – Hatton has been very up-and-down this season but where he has been consistent is in the bigger tournaments. He made all four cuts at the majors (with a 21st in the U.S. Open and 6th in the Open), he finished 22nd, 19th, and 43rd in the WGC’s, and in the playoffs last year he finished 20th, 12th, and 29th. You heard it here first but Tyrell Hatton is the English Patrick Reed… decent name recognition, weird stat lines, but shows up in big tourneys.
- Xander Schauffele ($8,900 DK – $10,800 FD)
- Billy Horschel ($8,000 DK – $9,800 FD)
- Joaquin Niemann ($7,500 DK – $9,100 FD)
- Jason Day ($8,200 DK – $10,400 FD) – Jason Day has been very mediocre lately with three straight finishes of 40th place or worse but he has a great track record in this event. In 2015 he won, in 2016 he finished 4th, in 2017 he finished 6th, and last year he finished 20th. On top of that, in 2013 at Liberty National Jason Day finished 25th. If there ever was a time for him to turn it around it would be in this spot and he only sets you back $8,200.
- Chez Reavie ($7,600 DK – $9,200 FD) – after his win at the Travelers Championship Chez missed his next two cuts and then finished 27th and 48th in his last two events. In the past five years Reavie has been 13th or better in both driving accuracy and proximity so on a tough course where accuracy off the tee and into these tough and undulating greens will be a premium, Chez could get back into form when everyone is looking the other way.
- Jordan Spieth ($8,000 DK – $10,000 FD)
- Louis Oosthuizen ($7,900 DK – $9,900 FD)
- Bubba Watson ($7,400 DK – $9,000 FD)
Sleepers ($7,300 and under on DK)
- Aaron Wise ($6,900 DK – $8,500 FD) – Aaron Wise hasn’t been crazy good lately but he hasn’t finished outside of the top 50 in his last four events, which includes both the U.S. Open and the Open. He hasn’t missed the cut in any of the four majors this year and in last season’s playoffs he had three finishes of 16th or better (5th in the Northern Trust) so it would appear that he feels very comfortable on the big stage.
- Cameron Tingale ($6,600 DK – $7,800 FD) – Tringale has made his last six cuts (with one MDF) and four of those six have been finishes inside of the top 25. He hasn’t made his way into the playoffs since 2016 where he missed the cut but in 2015 he finished 30th in the Northern Trust. He’s really improved his ball striking this year and is currently 14th on Tour in GIR with good scoring numbers so for $6,600 he seems to have a decent floor and will really open up the possibilities for the rest of your lineup.
- Jim Furyk ($7,100 DK – $8,600 FD)
- Ryan Palmer ($6,900 DK – $8,400 FD)
- Vaughn Taylor ($6,700 DK – $7,900 FD)
- Nick Watney ($6,700 DK – $8,000 FD) – Watney finished close to dead last in two out of his last three events but wedged between those was a 6th place finish at the John Deere Classic. The last time this event was at Liberty National he finished 9th but after that at the Northern Trust he missed two straight cuts in 2015 and 2017 before finishing 11th there last season. Watney’s been somewhat inconsistent but he’s a good iron player that can bomb the ball and sniff a top 10 every once in a while so it might be worth a punt in some GPP lineups.
- Roger Sloan ($6,400 DK – $7,400 FD) – Sloan didn’t play in any majors this year and he only played in one WGC back in the Fall where he finished 129th. He isn’t that accustomed to the big stage so it will be hard to predict how his game will translate but right now he is playing some pretty good golf. Sloan has made six out of his last seven cuts with only one of those six finishes outside of the top 40. On top of that, three out of his last four starts have all been finishes inside of the top 25.
- Kevin Na ($7,000 DK – $8,200 FD)
- Jhonattan Vegas ($6,700 DK – $7,700 FD) GTD?
- Charley Hoffman ($6,500 DK – $7,700 FD)
- Scott Stallings ($6,300 DK – $7,000 FD) – in his last two events Stallings has finished 18th (John Deere Classic) and 31st (Wyndham Championship). He’s made the cut in back-to-back years at the Northern Trust and he made the cut last year in the second round of the playoffs before running out of FedEx Cup points and failing to qualify for the third leg of the playoffs. He’s longer than the average player on Tour and is consistently a solid iron player (rating inside of 60th in each of the last three years in SG: approaching-the-green) so Stallings might not be a bad flier if you’re looking at stars-and-scrubs this week.
- C.T. Pan ($6,400 DK – $7,200 FD)
- Pat Perez ($6,300 DK – $7,000 FD)
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