Things are going to be a little different this year. Here’s what to expect from this article. Each day, the first thing I do is go through each game and look at the matchups for both the pitchers and hitters, highlighting things that stand out to me. Some of the research may present glaringly obvious plays, but other stuff may require a little bit more research. Regardless, I make a full list of notes on everything that jumps out.
I’m going to share this full list of notes with you to use however you’d like. Whether you want to blindly take plays from it or use it as your own research starting point, it’s yours to use how you see fit. I personally use this list to dive deeper into my research before making any final decisions. Sometimes that makes me more excited about a play, but other times, I uncover things that steer me away from a particular play. I will note that I compile this list each day before reading anything else around the industry, so my thoughts aren’t influenced whatsoever. Lastly, keep in mind, I primarily play tournaments and on DraftKings.
As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Twitter, and I’d love to hear your feedback on the new format. You can find me here: @mrclutchdfs
Today’s Starting Points
- Mets lefties are in a great spot against Hellickson. If the lefty stack doesn’t interest you, Michael Conforto is an elite one-off.
- Noah Syndergard is going to be a solid option like usual. There’s very little power in the Nats lineup outside of Rendon and Soto and there are lots of strikeouts to be had.
- Brandon Woodruff has been lights out against righties so far this season, allowing a .263 wOBA, 0.066 ISO, while striking out 33.3% of those hitters. He’s had some struggles against lefties, but is still striking them out and the Phillies should have three lefties in the lineup, with Bryce Harper being the scariest. But he’s struggling big time and striking out 29.7% of the time against righties. Woodruff has also been very unlucky so far, with a .389 BABIP.
- Chris Sale struck out 14 batters last time out and he very well could do that again in this matchup against the Rockies. Colorado has a few guys that don’t strike out much, but they have six guys between a 26-46% K rate. Away from the safe confines of Coors Field, this could be UGLY. Sale is THE top option at pitching.
- The Tigers are an enigma to me today. Their offense has been really bad. But they have some guys hitting the ball really well against lefties. The wOBA and ISO numbers for Wade Miley look good to both sides of the plate so far, but I think he’s a fraud. I’d love to stack the following Tigers righties: Castellanos, Cabrera, Rodriguez, Harrison, Greiner… But Houston pitching always outperforms, and once Miley leaves the game, we may not get any more fantasy points.
- George Springer might be the top bat on the entire slate. The Astros stack is also the top stack on the slate. They have scored eight or more runs in six of their last 10 games and tonight they face maybe the worse pitcher they’ve played during that span. They’re expensive, so it’s going to be tough, but I’m going to make a point to have my share.
- Caleb Smith is yet another pitcher with outstanding strikeout upside in this matchup. He’s now faced over 160 batters on the season and still has a 34.8% K-rate. That has to come down, but I don’t think it starts tonight. The Rays strikeout more than any team in the league against lefties (30.6%). At home, in the pitchers park, Smith is an excellent option at a small discount from the other top options.
- Pitching is insane on this slate. Not only do we have really good pitchers, they’re all in great matchups. Charlie Morton is another elite arm in a great matchup. Morton’s opponent, the Marlins, take the cake with the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties (27.1%). Don’t know what else I can say.
- I don’t want to stack the Braves on this slate, but I like some of the lefties. Of course you can play Freddie Freeman. But to save some salary, take a look at guys like Nick Markakis and Brian McCann.
- As a Braves fan, it pains me to say this, but Mike Foltynewicz has been atrocious this season. The Cardinals stack is squarely in play, with my favorite three being Goldschmidt, DeJong, Ozuna. Use those three as a core and fill in the rest.
- Tommy La Stella is really raking against righties (.429 wOBA, .341 ISO). Kyle Gibson isn’t a guy I want to stack against, but leading off, on the road, at only $4,000 on DK, I like La Stella a lot.
- When you look at Shelby Miller’s advanded data, there’s blood everywhere! Almost every stat is terrible. He’s walking (15.3%) more batters than he’s striking out (13.9%). Play the full Royals stack. And your punt catcher on this slate is Martin Maldonado at just $2,400 on DK.
- It’s not an ideal situation, but you could make a case for stacking the Giants lefties. Trent Thorton is allowing over a .380 wOBA and .300 ISO to lefties. The Giants would allow you to spend up on pitching. Guys to take a look at: Panik, Belt, Vogt, Crawford, Duggar
- Khris Davis is coming off a double dong game and will be facing Mike Leake who is giving up all the power to righties. He’s giving up hard hit fly balls and Davis is the king of such. He’s still just $4,000 on DK.
- Chris Paddack has been outstanding to start his young career. But I don’t think tonight’s the night to use him. The Dodgers have the lefties to get to him and he can’t have a good start every time out. Clayton Kershaw is the same for me. Don’t see any reason to use him tonight with the other elite option.
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