MLB DFS Starting Points Monday 5-13

Things are going to be a little different this year. Here’s what to expect from this article. Each day, the first thing I do is go through each game and look at the matchups for both the pitchers and hitters, highlighting things that stand out to me. Some of the research may present glaringly obvious plays, but other stuff may require a little bit more research. Regardless,  I make a full list of notes on everything that jumps out.

I’m going to share this full list of notes with you to use however you’d like. Whether you want to blindly take plays from it or use it as your own research starting point, it’s yours to use how you see fit. I personally use this list to dive deeper into my research before making any final decisions. Sometimes that makes me more excited about a play, but other times, I uncover things that steer me away from a particular play. I will note that I compile this list each day before reading anything else around the industry, so my thoughts aren’t influenced whatsoever. Lastly, keep in mind, I primarily play tournaments and on DraftKings.

As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Twitter, and I’d love to hear your feedback on the new format. You can find me here: @mrclutchdfs

Today’s Starting Points

Today we only have six games, but there are some really good spots for both hitting and pitching. Let’s get to it.

  • Aaron Nola really continues to struggle against left handed hitters, allowing a 0.430 wOBA, 0.232 ISO, and 11% walk rate. The only thing he’s been okay at is keeping the ball on the ground at a decent clip. The Brewers, however, have some dangerous lefties, who walk a lot and hit a lot of fly balls. I’d take a chance on any and all of them, including: Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, Shaw.
  • Strikeouts are really the only thing Freddy Peralta has going for him. Almost every other statistic to both sides of the plate is BAD. I don’t mind a Philly stack or pick and choose among the hitters. There’s not really anyone I wouldn’t play in a full stack in their current projected lineup.
  • Brad Peacock is a solid pitching option on this slate. He’s struggled to lefties, but the Tigers may only have two in the lineup. Seven of their nine projected starters have a strike out rate against righties higher than 24%. YIKES! Peacock is striking righties out at nearly 30% on the season.
  • Matt Boyd continues to be elite. He now faces an elite offense in the Astros. That scares me, but I’ll take a shot on him at $8,800 on DK. He’s the highest scoring fantasy pitcher (per game) on the slate, yet he’s priced fifth highest. For reference, he’s averaging 10 points more than the fifth highest scoring pitcher on the slate (Nola). Even if the Astros do a little damage against him, he’ll still likely have a solid game.
  • This Twins offense routinely puts up GPP winning performances. Against the struggling lefty in Skaggs, I’ll likely have at least one full stack. Personally, I like the wrap around stack, including guys like Schoop, Cave, Buxton along with Garver, Rosario, Cron.
  • Play any Arizona lefty that cracks the lineup. Nick Kingham is atrocious against lefties (0.411 wOBA, 0.308 ISO) since the start of last season. I love guys like Dyson, Peralta, Escobar, Marte… I’ll prioritize them in my lineups.
  • Robbie Ray is the most expensive pitching option on the slate and I’m going to pay for him. He can always put up a major dud, so that scares me at this price. But he’s struck out 29.7% of the batters he’s faced. His issue is always walks. Well, the Pirates don’t walk. Five of their projected batters have a BB% less than five percent against lefties, with another three in single digits. On top of that, they strike out A LOT. They have three guys who have struck out between 41-42% against lefties this season on 79 total plate appearances. Another three batters strike out between 24-29%. This is a massive upside spot fo Ray.
  • Yusei Kikuchi is similar to Boyd for me here. He’s looking really good, but the A’s are dangerous against lefties. I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out and hit four home runs and put up 5-6 runs on him in four innings, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they came out and couldn’t muster up more than a run against him thru 6-7 innings. I’ll take a chance on him because of his DK price ($7,500). However, the strikeout upside is limited here.
  • Mike Fiers threw a no hitter last time out and his ERA is still 5.48. That’s crazy! I don’t think we see a repeat here and I’m fine with some Mariners bats. Here are the one’s I’m interested in, ranked: Vogelbach, Bruce, Encarnacion, Haniger.

 

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Eric S

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Eric has played fantasy football for over 20 years now and is primarily a GPP player in DFS. He estimates he enters lineups in football, basketball, baseball, golf, MMA, and Nascar contests roughly 350 days a year. As primarily a DFS tournament player, Eric is currently ranked inside the top 3% in Rotogrinders Tournament Player of the Year rankings, as well as being in the top 20% in the Heavyweight rankings. His favorite teams include the Detroit Lions, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the Atlanta Braves.

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