Daily Fantasy Golf Preview: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Below is a link to my Pebble Beach cheat sheet for the golfers in this field. 

Golfer stats and projections

The Course

  • Pebble Beach Golf Links
    • Par 72 (6,816 yards)
      • Smallest greens on tour
      • A lot of water/hazards
      • They’re prepping this course for the U.S. Open so the rough is longer and the fairways are narrower than usual (could play harder)
  •  Spyglass Hill Golf Course
    • Par 72 (6,953 yards)
      • Typically the hardest of the three courses
      • Tree lined (protects golfers from the wind)
      • Small undulated greens
  • Monterey Peninsula County Club
    • Par 71 (6,958 yards)
      • Easiest of the courses
      • Resembles a links style course
      • Wider fairways
  • Pebble Beach, California
    • They’ve used these 3 courses together since 2010
    • Poa annua greens
    • Wind/weather can make play quite difficult
    • Pin placements and the rough are made easier for the amateurs playing this week
    • Distance isn’t huge here

Key Stats

  • SG: approaching-the-green
    • SG: tee-to-green
  • Proximity
  • GIR
  • Driving accuracy
  • Putting poa annua
  • Course History
  • Scrambling
  • Birdie or better
  • Bogey avoidance

The Field

The field this week will include 156 professional golfers paired with 156 amateur golfers. There have been plenty of field changes so far including: Out – Bill Haas, Morgan Hoffman, Carlos Ortiz, Charl Schwartzel, Vijay Singh, Robert Streb, Peter Uihlein, Chris Kirk, Kevin Na, Kyle Stanley, and Jason Kokrak. In – Chad Campbell, Ben Crane, Matt Every, Derek Fathauer, Jason Gore, David Lingmerth, Tyrone Van Aswegen, D.J. Trahan, Jonathan Byrd, John Catlin, Andres Romero. All of the pairings will play the first three days at each one of the three courses, where the final cut will be the top 60 pros (including ties) and will be played on Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Big Dogs ($9,100 and up on DK)

I’m going to skip the two top priced guys in this category — Dustin Johnson and Jason Day, because you can’t go wrong playing either one of these two. Both are in great form, have excellent course history, and with the larger field this week I think you can go stars and scrubs or dip down and take a more balanced approach with your lineups.

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Matt Kuchar ($10,000 DK – $11,400 FD) – in the last five years Kuch has played in this event twice (2017 & 2018) where he missed the cut and finished -2 respectively. Not the best showing but he’s been playing great golf and his game should suit these courses: accurate off the tee and into the green.
    • Patrick Cantlay ($9,800 DK – $11,000 FD) – Cantlay was highly owned the last time we saw him (at the Farmers Insurance Open) and he went on to miss the cut. I’m guessing this will drop his ownership because so many people were burned by him two weeks ago, making this a good time to go back to the well.
    • Chez Reavie ($9,000 DK – $10,500 FD) – the way Reavie has been playing lately he could easily be slotted at $9,500 just North of Jordan Spieth. He finished T2 here last year and in two out of his last three starts he has finished inside of the top 5. I like him, it seems like all of the fantasy golf insiders like him, so it’s probably a trap — you’ve been warned.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Tony Finau ($10,600 DK – $11,200 FD) – like Cantlay two weeks ago, Tony was a popular pick last week at the Waste Management and failed to make the cut. His ball striking has been good and he’s gaining just over a stroke and a half from tee-to-green this season but he’s losing nearly a stroke putting. If he can figure out the flat stick I see him winning one this year when people least expect it.
    • Phil Mickelson ($9,600 DK – $11,300 FD) – Lefty fell apart in the second round last week to miss the cut and continues to struggle with his accuracy off of the tee. Fortunately he’s coming to an event where you can afford to club down and where he’s found success in the past (two 2nd place finishes in the last three years).
    • Paul Casey ($9,100 DK – $11,100 FD) – we haven’t heard from Paul Casey since the Sony Open in Hawaii where he missed the cut but before that he had five straight finishes in the top 20. His biggest problems this year have been length off the tee (but that shouldn’t hurt him here) and putting where he’s losing close to half a stroke on the field (but he was 8th here last year so he should know how to roll them on these greens).

Value ($7,400 – $8,900 on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Adam Hadwin ($8,700 DK – $10,300 FD) – I did have Jason Kokrak here at first but he pulled out of the tournament earlier today. They rate out similarly in the stat department but Kokrak was a little cheaper (especially on FD) so that’s why I originally went with him here. He seemed to have a higher floor but Hadwin probably has the higher ceiling of the two so it’s probably a good value swap anyways.
    • Brandt Snedeker ($8,200 DK – $10,900 FD) – Sneds has gone 13 straight tournaments without missing the cut since the US Open. He also won here in 2015 and has a 4th place finish in this event even more recently in 2017. I’m not crazy about his GIR and proximity stats (197th & 186th) but I’m ultimately gonna trust his track record here.
    • Lucas Glover ($7,700 DK – $9,600 FD) – they say insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results — well you can call me Gary Busey cuz I’m back on Glover this week. Him and Dahmen have been too solid lately to completely turn your back on them. I’m hoping their ownership plummets after the chalky missed cuts last week so I can swim against the current on this one.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Sungjae Im ($8,400 DK – $9,300 FD) – Sungjae has made five straight cuts starting with the RSM Classic and in three of those he finished inside of the top 20 including a 7th place finish last week at the Waste Management. He’s got a very well-rounded game and seems to have a decently high floor for this event.
    • Rafa Cabrera Bello ($8,300 DK – $10,600 FD) – I was on Ben An last week because I thought he would be undervalued due to not having played in America in quite a while, Rafa is that guy for me this week. Everything I’ve heard from the DFS pros is that they are fading Rafa so I’ll gladly fade the DFS pros and take him.
    • Scott Piercy ($7,800 DK – $9,100 FD) – Piercy was 20th here last year and 20th last week at the Waste Management. This is the time of year where he seems to shine and being in the top 25 in driving accuracy and GIR is the formula for succeeding in this tournament.

Sleepers ($7,300 and under on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
    • J.J. Spaun ($7,300 DK – $8,500 FD) – Spaun has made seven out of his last eight cuts with two top 10’s in that time. The best part of his game is finding greens in regulation and avoiding bogeys (top 30 in both this season) which will certainly help here.
    • Beau Hossler ($7,300 DK – $9,300 FD) – Hossler started this tournament last year with a share of the lead after the first round which helped to kick off a good start to his young career. He’s got good short game and is a solid ball striker that should fit this course well and he’s currently flying under the radar.
    • Ryan Armour ($7,200 DK – $7,900 FD) – Armour has played in this event three out of the last five years with two made cuts, both inside 30th place. He’s missed his last two cuts but before that he made ten straight with half of those inside of 30th place. Basically, I’m saying there is a pretty decent chance he finds a number of 30 or smaller this week.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Talor Gooch ($7,200 DK – $8,800 FD) – I was cautious about Gooch last week and it turns out rightfully so because he ended up missing the cut. I think this might be a good spot to get back on him because he’ll have three days to make the cut (like the Desert Classic where he finished 4th) and his game is better suited for a shorter course.
    • Chesson Hadley ($7,100 DK – $9,100 FD) – Hadley is 1st on tour this season in proximity approaching the green and 11th in SG: approaching-the-green. He also has two top 10 finishes here in the last five years and is coming off a 20th place finish at the Waste Management. He’s one of my favorite long shots to win it.
    • Corey Conners ($7,100 DK – $8,500 FD) – Conners has been boom or bust in the last year as well as in his recent form. He’s missed half of his last six cuts but his other finishes were 2nd, 23rd, and 3rd. Corey ranks out very well statistically for this course being 15th in SG: tee-to-green, 7th in GIR, and 2nd in proximity approaching the green, so I’m thinking this might be a “boom” week for him.

Dark Horses

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Graeme McDowell ($6,800 DK – $8,300 FD) – Graeme McDowell makes a lot of cuts, finished 7th here five years ago, and is in the top 20 in SG: putting, driving accuracy, and GIR. That’s a recipe for a safe, cheap pick at Pebble Beach.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Jimmy Walker ($7,100 DK – $8,900 FD) – Jimmy Walker has a great track record here, winning in 2014 and finishing 8th last year with five out of five cuts in that same span.
    • Nate Lashley ($7,000 DK – $8,200 FD) – Lashley has only played once since the RSM Classic and that was at the Desert Classic where he finished 12th. He’s got a good skill set for this course and like the Desert Classic it will be another ‘three day before the cut’ event.
    • Davis Love III ($6,700 DK – $8,000 FD) – I don’t like to pick the old guys but this week, for whatever reason, the old timers rate out decently well. Love III, Furyk, and Ernie Els are all on my radar (but I don’t think I have the stones to play any of ’em).

 

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Mark Lee

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Detroit sports fan, also sufferer of seasonal depression (the two might be related). Avid golfer and former college baseball player. Would've been in the league if it weren't for my lack of ability. Accountant by day, fantasy sports guru by night.

2 thoughts on “Daily Fantasy Golf Preview: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am”

  1. Tony Finau is the man! I traded for him in all 5 of my fantasy leagues and will win them all. Finau for MVP!!!

    1. I counted him out last year at the Masters when he rolled his ankle before the tournament but he battled back and top 10’ed. He’s very close to putting it all together and winning some Majors.

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