Daily Fantasy Golf Preview: Waste Management Phoenix Open

The Course

  • TPC Scottsdale
  • Scottsdale, Arizona
  • Par 71
  • 7,266 yards
    • Desert course with a somewhat open, links-style layout
    • Bermuda greens and fairways with a ryegrass and bentgrass mixture
    • Renovated in 2014 to make it more difficult
    • Rough isn’t very penal
      • Bomb-and-gouge style course
    • Not many blow up holes
    • Fans are typically more rowdy here (especially on the back 9)

Key Stats

  • SG: off-the-tee
    • SG: tee-to-green
  • Course History
  • Birdie or better
  • GIR
  • Par 4 scoring
  • Par 5 scoring

The Field

The field is set at 132 golfers with Sangmoon Bae and Aaron Wise backing out while Talor Gooch, Hunter Mahan, Branden Grace, John Catlin, and Stephan Jaegar all qualify at the last-minute. Notable players that will be in the Saudi International this weekend include last week’s winner Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Bryson DeChambeau. Even with these big names not in attendance, there will still be 21 out of the top 50 golfers at TPC Scottsdale this week.

Big Dogs ($9,200 and up on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
  • Out of the Top 3 golfers I am going with Rahm as my cash lineup play because of how he has been playing and because he went to ASU. Thomas would be my GPP play because he’s missed two out of his last three cuts here but has been the best golfer in this field over the last year. And finally, I am going to fade Hideki because he’s coming off an inflated 3rd place finish and he’s been a monster on this course winning twice in the last 3 years — which will leave him highly over owned (in my opinion).
    • Webb Simpson ($9,700 DK – $10,800 FD) – Webb is one of the most consistent golfers on tour and although he missed the cut here last year he has three finishes in a row of 14th or better in this event prior to the missed cut. Due to the fairly quick talent drop off in this field I will probably grab a couple of guys in the $9,000’s and avoid the $10,000’s and $11,000’s all together.
    • Phil Mickelson ($9,300 DK – $11,100 FD) – Phil is 1st on tour this season in birdie or better percentage with a 17th and a 2nd place finish. He seems to be very comfortable in this environment finishing inside the top 20 in three consecutive years with a 5th place finish last year.
    • Matt Kuchar ($9,200 DK – $10,700 FD) – Kuch has two wins this season and his game is right back where it needs to be to take down this track (where he is coming off of back-to-back top 10’s). He’s also 4th on tour in GIR and 9th in birdie or better this season.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Xander Schauffele ($10,100 DK – $11,200 FD) – Xander is my top projected player to win the tournament and he has a cushion of about 4-5% on the next closest golfer. He has played here once (last year) and finished T17 so looking at that and how he is playing so far this year, if I’m taking someone $10,000+, Xander will probably be it.
    • Gary Woodland ($9,900 DK – $11,300 FD) – Woodland is the defending champ and has looked great so far this season (while being a good fit for this course) but the inconsistency scares me. He has missed two out of his last four cuts at this tournament and has missed one out of his last two cuts more recently.
    • Tony Finau ($9,500 DK – $10,900 FD) – Finau, for his talent level, might be someone in this category that is going heavily overlooked. He’s missed his last three cuts here which is going to force people toward Rickie, Webb, and the others priced around him. He may be lacking in SG: putting and GIR this year but he is without a doubt one of the best scorers on tour. But… when I adjusted my model to account for course history more heavily he did drop off a bit, so maybe this event’s atmosphere just isn’t his bag.

Value ($7,600 – $9,100 on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Byeong-Hun An ($8,600 DK – $9,200 FD) – we haven’t seen Ben An play on American soil in quite some time (which is probably why he is priced so low on FD) but I am going to look past that at his entire body of work. He has two top 25 finishes in the last two years here and over the last year he has made 19/22 cuts which is amazing for someone not in the “Big Dogs” category.
    • Andrew Putnam ($8,500 DK – $10,500 FD) – Putnam has been an excellent scorer this season sitting at 2nd in SG: putting and 19th in birdie or better percentage. He’s also made eight straight cuts and hasn’t finished worse than 50th in that time.
    • Emiliano Grillo ($7,600 DK – $9,800 FD) – in three consecutive years at this course Grillo has shot -1, not missing any cuts but also not finishing higher than 45th. He finished 52nd last week and his price tag dropped $500 in a slightly weaker field. Because of the lack of high finishes they must have his ceiling as being relatively low but he certainly is the most likely golfer to make the cut at this price or lower.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Luke List ($8,000 DK – $9,400 FD) – List is 6th in total SG this year and the only area of his game where he is close to losing strokes is around the green where he is still sitting positive at 0.059. He’s 1st in SG: off-the-tee but 183rd in driving accuracy: with the rough not being very penal this week he should have an even bigger advantage with his tee-to-green game.
    • Keegan Bradley ($7,800 DK – $9,800 FD) – speaking of tee-to-green games, Keegan has some of the best iron work on tour and ranks 8th in par 3 scoring but is losing close to 1 stroke putting. He’s made twelve straight cuts so even without a good putter he can still get you into the weekend in most tournaments.
    • Ryan Palmer ($7,700 DK – $9,300 FD) – Palmer over the last year has been real shaky, he missed his last two cuts in the Waste Management, but he does have some definite potential for this price. In 2015 he finished T2 here and in three out of his last four events he has finished 13th or better.

Sleepers ($7,500 and under on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Jason Kokrak ($7,300 DK – $8,600 FD) – Kokrak has strung together a couple of top 20’s in a row while being in the top 40 in SG: off-the-tee, SG: approaching-the-green, GIR, and birdie or better. He’s made three out of his last five cuts at this course while finishing anywhere from 15th to 90th, which isn’t all that great but the experience here and recent form are very promising.
    • Lucas Glover ($7,200 DK – $9,700 FD) – these next two guys are probably going to be two of the highest owned golfers in this price range. Glover has been a crazy good ball striker this season and is 3rd in GIR. He hasn’t finished worse than 17th place in his past five tournaments so its kind of weird to see him priced this low on DK.
    • Joel Dahmen ($6,800 DK – $9,000 FD) – Dahmen has made eight consecutive cuts and is coming off of back-to-back top 25’s including a 9th place finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He might be the best pound-for-pound pick on DK at $6,800.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Ryan Moore ($7,200 DK – $9,700 FD) – Moore has missed two straight cuts and he missed his last cut here at the Waste Management. He’s too good to be completely overlooked at $7,200 with three top 20 finishes here in the last five years and with making 18/24 cuts over the last year.
    • Kevin Na ($7,200 DK – $9,500 FD) – Na is in the same boat as Moore, they aren’t currently in great form but too talented to not sprinkle into a couple GPP lineups. He hasn’t missed a cut here in the past five years and has finished 26th or better in four of those events.
    • Keith Mitchell ($7,000 DK – $8,000 FD) – Mitchell’s numbers are great this season outside of his 195th in SG: putting. He missed the cut last week and hasn’t played here yet but he’s good enough at getting to the greens alone to make the cut, so if he cleans up his flat stick game he should be able to really compete at TPC Scottsdale.

Dark Horses

  • Risky (GPP)
    • Talor Gooch ($7,500 DK – $8,700 FD) – Gooch has been incredible lately and will likely see a lot of action this week in terms of fantasy ownership coming off of a 4th and 3rd place finish. But he’s only made 7 out of his last 22 cuts so I’m afraid this might just be a flash in the pan and we’re all being duped into buying some Gooch.
    • Kevin Tway ($7,100 DK – $8,900 FD) – Tway led the season off with a win and now he is already down to $7,100… even though he’s only missed one out of six cuts since (and he barely missed that cut).
    • Danny Lee ($6,700 DK – $8,100 FD) – Although he missed the cut last week —Lee has a recent 2nd place finish and a 4th place finish at this course. He is 16th in GIR this year as well as 30th in birdie or better but he’s been rough (no pun intended) when around the green… if he tightens that up he could bounce back here.
    • Stewart Cink ($6,700 DK – $9,000 FD) – Cink has been good at everything this season besides gaining strokes approaching the green where he currently ranks 174th. If he can clean that up he should be able to make a serious comeback.
    • Sam Ryder ($6,500 DK – $8,200 FD) – this is my *place money in the Sam Ryder jar* pick that will be happening every week until further notice.
Mark Lee

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Detroit sports fan, also sufferer of seasonal depression (the two might be related). Avid golfer and former college baseball player. Would've been in the league if it weren't for my lack of ability. Accountant by day, fantasy sports guru by night.