Sometimes getting off to a hot starts can be a bad thing. You are off to a 3-1 or 4-0 start – why change things if you are doing so well, right? Sometimes the adversity of being 2-2 or worse in the early goings provide teams with a reason to take chances on waiver wire guys or players off to hot starts.
If you are 4-0, maybe you don’t trade a struggling star because you don’t have to. But now it is week 7, and what you thought was a few bad games is just that players new baseline. And if you were 1-3, maybe you got out from the David Johnson underperforming early and were able to get a Sony Michel to help turn your season around. The point is, don’t get complacent just because your team is doing well.
- Jarvis Landry
Landry hasn’t really connected with Mayfield, but the targets have been there (28 over the past three weeks) and the Browns are coming up on a really nice stretch of games. Landry should be a locked and loaded WR2 for the next few weeks. If you are desperate, look at Antonio Callaway on the waiver wire for the same reason – schedule and target volume.
- Odell Beckham Jr.
Man are people panicking about him. Manning has not looked good this year, but Beckham doesn’t just need the deep ball to be effective. There are enough slants that he has taken 60 yards to the house that his lack of downfield targets aren’t overly concerning me. I also don’t think the lack of downfield targets will continue. Bad line or not, the Giants will start pushing the ball downfield.
- Brandin Cooks
The concussion week helps the buy-low window stay open as Cooks has just 53 yards in the past two games. The Cooper Kupp injury doesn’t really change his value to me, although I have seen people say they think Cooks move to Kupp’s role and Reynolds to take Cooks role. Don’t worry about the lack of touchdowns. The Rams will have so many scoring opportunities he will get his.
- John Brown
I don’t love Brown after he barely played half the snaps last week, I don’t completely understand why either. Brown is headed into a prime matchup with the formerly good, but again bad, Saints secondary.
I would be lying if I said the Ravens running the ball a decent bit last week and Brown playing a much lower snap count didn’t worry me. His market share of the air yards by week were 16, 44, 48, 53, 50, and 15 last week. Week 1 and week 6 look like the outliers rather than the norm to me, but if Brown is only playing half the snaps it could be an issue. His owner likely doesn’t need him to be a starter and you can probably get him as a cheap throw in.
- Kenyan Drake
For all the people pounding the table for Gore and his “big” game, Drake actually led the team in snaps with 63% to Gore’s 38, and other than week 4 Drake has led in snaps every week, 74-29, 60-40, 66-36, 45-51, 64-41, 63-38.
Gore is always going to be involved, but don’t let people make you think that Gore is the lead back in the offense because Drake is still on the field more.
- Corey Davis
The Titans were bad Sunday, and that is an understatement.
Corey Davis is putting up a lot of target share and air yards numbers that should get people excited, but if the ball isn’t on target, what can we do?
I have seen a lot of discussions for Davis being droppable for guys that have had one good week with no reason to think it will continue. I want his upside on my bench for when the Titans figure things out.
- Tyler Boyd
Boyd is a true mid to high end WR2 at this point. I don’t think the perception is there yet. The Bengals are rolling on offense this year, and Boyd has emerged to finally give the Bengals a number two receiver to A.J. Green.
Boyd has basically put up the same numbers as Green this season. I don’t think that continues, and Boyd doesn’t have near the upside of Green, but he doesn’t have to be to keep up this pace.
- David Johnson
Broncos, 49ers, Chiefs, Raiders. That is Johnson’s upcoming schedule with a bye thrown in the middle.
Johnson has been saved by the touchdowns, and while I do think it continues to the extent that he is a 50/50 bet to get the touchdown when the Cardinals are inside the five, they aren’t going to keep getting the chances.
That upcoming schedule could lead to some nice yardage games (finally) as the Broncos have been torched in back-to-back weeks – the 49ers provide a game the Cardinals can stay in for four quarters, the Chiefs have a bad defense, and the Raiders… well, are the Raiders.
I have said it a few times this season, but in this worst case scenario Johnson is still a top-10 non-PPR back. Imagine if they figure things out in Arizona.
- Alex Collins – I am not buying in after one big game. Still going to be a split there and they aren’t going to dominate teams and just be able to sit on the ball like they did.
- Demaryius Thomas – Sanders is still the only guy I want in that offense.
- James White – Time is running out to be able to get rid of him at borderline RB1/2 value.
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