We have a huge 14 game slate to sift through tonight. There are four aces going in Verlander, Kluber, Corbin, and Paxton. We are going to go through each of their matchups and see who’s in the best spot for big game success and DFS glory. Yesterday, if you had deGrom or Folty in your lineup you most likely came away with some winnings. Severino looked off and I apologize for the Reynaldo Lopez suggestion. Never again. Probably.
Anyhow, Let’s get to it. Hit me up on twitter @RyanStar25 with any questions.
Theres some rain and storms in the North East today. There seems to be a chance of rain and storms leading up to start time of BOS @ PHI, NYM @ BAL, and TAM @ NYY. Keep a close eye on those spots if you plan to use a pitcher from any of the games. As of now hitting should be fine as each spot looks to be clearing up around or a bit after start time.
Justin Verlander ($11,200 FD / $12,600 DK) vs COL
This current Rockies team is batting .197 with a .596 OPS and a 19/2 K/BB in 67 PA career vs Verlander. Colorado is in the bottom third of the league in terms of offensive productions vs RHP since the break and are striking out 24.1% of the time. The only issue here is that Verlander has struggled with the long ball at home this season, giving up 17 HR in 86 IP, as opposed to 5 in 72 ⅓ innings away from home. Besides that, Verlander should be in a spot to bounce back after a horrendous outing vs Seattle his last time out. He owns a 35.2% K-rate at home, 39.9% vs LHH. That’s what we need tonight, a big time K game from one of these top dogs. There’s a ton of places to go for offense tonight so spending up on SP is going to need to pay off in a big way. Verlander is the most expensive guy on the board but not many guys have 50 pt upside tonight. He does.
Corey Kluber ($11,000 FD / $11,500 DK) @ CIN
Clevinger struggled with walks last night (6 BB) and was still able to get the W since the Indians offense was able to pile on 10 runs off Bailey and the Reds bullpen. I expect a similar scenario for the Tribe tonight vs Romano, the difference here is Kluber isn’t going to beat himself with walks. He’s going to make the hitters earn their way like he always does. With the lack of experience in the lineup (outside of Votto, Gennett, and Suarez) it looks like it’s going to be a long night for the Reds. Kluber’s K upside isn’t what Verlander’s is at this point, but he should be able to go 7 with a K/9 and a W. I like Verlander over Kluber tonight but both should be able to score plenty of points to keep you in tournament take down mode.
Patrick Corbin ($10,400 FD / $11,900 DK) @ TEX
Corbin has feasted on hitters by inducing a ton of ground balls and generating swinging strikes outside the zone at a ridiculous 17.2% rate. Texas has held their own vs LHP since the break, as they are a top 10 offense vs southpaws in terms of production. However, Corbin isn’t just any lefty. He’s a top pitcher in baseball and is striking out guys more than 30% of the time. Corbin has reached at least 7 Ks in 17 of 24 starts this season. He’s walked more than 2 guys only 4 times in 24 starts. He’s given up 3 HR to LHH all season, which is where Gallo, Odor, and Guzman do most of their damage. This isn’t the best matchup on the board, but Corbin has shown his ability to shut down any team out there. Plus, he’s opposing Yovani Gallardo, who’s awful.
James Paxton ($9,800 FD / 11,100 DK) @ OAK
Paxton absolutely dominated the A’s in his only matchup against them back on May 5. That 7 inning, 16K performance was a top performance by any pitcher this season. However, the A’s were a different team back then, or at least they were playing different. During April and May, the A’s were striking out 24.5% of the time vs LHP and were in the bottom third of the league in offensive production. Since the break, the A’s are only striking out 19.3% of the time vs LHP and are a top 5 run producing team vs southpaws. This is a huge series, as the Mariners trail the A’s by 2 ½ games for the second wild card spot. The A’s have scored at least 7 runs in each of their last 3. This is a tough call tonight. I think I feel more comfortable paying up for Corbin or down to Taillon or Sanchez if you don’t want to pay up for Verlander. He should be lower owned, though ownership should not be an issue tonight. Proceed with caution as it could pay off.
J.A. Happ ($8,800 FD / $9,500 DK) vs TAM
The Rays have faired well vs LHP since the break (only 134 PA). They’re a top 5 team in terms of BB%, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Again, it’s a small sample size but it shows they have played better vs LHP than RHP vs whom they are a bottom third offensive team. Happ has pitched well in 2 starts for the Yankees, striking out 9 his last time out vs TEX. He allows next to nothing vs LHH but has gotten beat by the long ball vs RHH, giving up 17 on the season. The Rays aren’t a very potent offense, which makes this matchup a bit more enticing than Paxton vs OAK. Plus you’re saving $1,000 with Happ. His upside is not close to that of Paxton or Corbin but he may allow you more exposure to Arizona or Cleveland if that’s the route you want to go.
Anibal Sanchez ($8,600 FD / $8,600 DK) vs MIA
Anibal is coming back from a shortened start after taking a comebacker off the calf. He should be good to go vs a Miami team that is dead last in offensive production vs RHH since the break. They are last in the league in BB% (5.3%) and are striking out 23.4% of the time. The Marlins are hitting the ball on the ground 51.1% of the time vs RHP since the start of July, that’s the highest mark in baseball. They’re also only 26th in the league in hard hit% at 31.1%. This is a great spot for Sanchez to shine vs his former team. If you want to be in this price range, I like Anibal over Happ and Porcello.
Jameson Taillon (8,200 FD / $9,000 DK) @ MIN
Since the start of July, Taillon owns a 4.2 K/BB rate, 26.3% FB%, and a 29.3% Hard Contact%. Hitters are not getting any lift on the ball and are making poor contact at a high rate. Taillon was brilliant his last time out in Coors, though he only mustered 3 Ks. The Twins are a middle of the pack offense since the break and are striking out close to 23% of the time vs RHP. Taillon has 4 wins and 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. If Taillon can generate a strikeout per inning in this one his value should be great. He’s a sneaky upside play tonight with quite a bit of savings from the top dogs.
German Marquez ($7,900 FD / $8,400 DK) @ HOU
This is a dark horse play. It’s going to be hard for Marquez to earn the W with Verlander as his opposition but hear me out. Since the break, Houston is 27th in OBP, 26th in OPS, 28th in wRC, 25th in wRAA, 26th in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. Besides Bregman, they’ve had to rely on Tyler White and Marwin Gonzalez for their offensive production. In 7 starts since June 30, Marquez has a 55/10 K/BB ratio in 45 ⅔ innings, good for a 30.4% K rate. During this 7 start run, Marquez owns a 2.35 xFIP and has been able to keep the ball on the ground 55.3% of the time. He’s also amassed at least 40 Fanduel points in 6 of his last 7 outings, scoring over 50 twice in that time. The Astros are hurting without Springer and Altuve, and Correa isn’t himself just yet. Now’s as good a time as any to take a shot on a salary saver with no ownership vs a beat up team. Again, with Verlander on the other side it’s going to be tough to get the W, but at $7,900 with 40 point upside he could be the play of the day. If not, I apologize ahead of time. Though if he does blow up I will be hurting too because I’m getting him into some tournament lineups. NOT CASH.
Rick Porcello @ PHI
Nick Pivetta vs BOS
Alex Wood vs SFG
Gio Gonzalez @ STL
Good luck tonight! Hit me up on twitter @RyanStar25 with any questions.
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