This week we’re jumping to the NFC North for our dynasty divisional outlook which means we’re 3 quarters of the way through!
This week the theme seems to be late bloomers. It’s important to remember that dynasty is a long-term game. It can be frustrating to hang 0nto underperforming players year after to year, but sometimes young players just need some time to develop. Is it bad that somebody like John Ross didn’t produce at all last year? You betcha. Is his career over? Hell no. If people are casting aside underperforming youth, feel free to fill your bench with that cheap high upside talent. And if you catch wind of a mid-career breakout from somebody, don’t be afraid to buy in. People were skeptical that Adam Thielen was legit, but here we are two years later and he’s only further establishing himself as a top-tier wideout. Dynasty is unpredictable – don’t give up on players just because you don’t recognize the name or they’ve burnt you in the past.
Undervalued – Mitch Trubisky, QB
I get the upside appeal of Pat Mahomes to be sure, but it feels a little odd how Mahomes is locked into top 10 dynasty QB value while Trubisky is lucky to make it into the top 20. They’re both entering their second season, playing for good offensive minded coaches (Trubisky’s coach is actually Mahomes former offensive coordinator under Andy Reid), surrounded with a variety of weapons. And Trubisky was the higher draft pick last year (#2 vs #10)! Would anybody really be surprised if Trubisky is the better QB 3 years from now?
Overvalued – Jordan Howard, RB
Jordan Howard reminds me a lot of one of my favorite players of all time – Alfred Morris. Morris and Howard were both late round picks who burst onto the scene with simple hard between the tackles running. Morris, however, didn’t last long after his 1600 yard rookie season thanks to a lack of dynamic athleticism and passing game ability. Each of his next 5 seasons saw Morris finish with fewer yards than the season before. Howard had 1300 yards rushing as a rookie and 1100 last year. Can he get to 1000 again this year with Tarik Cohen creeping into the picture and a more developed passing game?
Deep Sleeper – Javon Wims, WR
Wims is 6’3” 215 pounds and ran a 4.53 40 yard dash at the combine. He also found success in the SEC last season after transferring from Junior College. That’s about all you can ask for from a 7th round pick.
Undervalued – Kerryon Johnson, RB
When I was scouting running backs before the draft I was blown away by Johnson. To me he looked better than Ronald Jones and Royce Freeman, but the Johnson hype seemed nonexistent. Seeing the Lions select Johnson 44th overall made me feel a lot better about my pre draft evaluation. I’m no expert but Johnson is my anti Ronald Jones – the rookie that I’m pounding the table for no matter what. Johnson’s patience, toughness, natural pass catching, and ability to make defenders miss with a variety of moves more than makes up for him lacking Jones’ long speed and burst.
Overvalued – LeGarrette Blount, RB*
Blount turns 32 this year on a team that just drafted a back in the 2nd round. If he can steal some carries and vulture some goal line touchdowns for easy fantasy points this year then great, but owners expecting him to contribute may want to look for more help at the position.
Deep Sleeper – Theo Riddick, RB
The Lions backfield is crowded with Johnson, Blount, Ameer Abdullah and Riddick. But Riddick has one edge. We know Riddick does something better than anybody else in this backfield. Riddick is an excellent pass catcher on a team that loves to throw the ball. Over the past 4 seasons Riddick averages nearly 4 receptions a game for 8 yards a catch. That’s 7 points a week before you count any touchdowns or rushing production (ok there’s virtually no rushing production but still). At his cost why not through Riddick on the end of your bench in case you need a spot start.
Green Bay Packers
Undervalued – Geronimo Allison, WR
Allison has virtually no hype for somebody who has a fair chance of being the second most targeted Aaron Rodgers receiver this season. Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham may put a stop to that but Allison has good size and speed and has begun to build a rapport with Rodgers over the past 2 seasons. We saw both Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson take a couple of years to get on Rodgers page before exploding – its possible Allison is next.
Overvalued – Equanimeous St. Brown, WR
St. Brown got a lot of pre-draft hype thanks to his size and fluid athleticism, but he ended up being only drafted in the 6th round. He was only the 3rd receiver taken by his own team! Yet somehow St. Brown seems to be carrying more value than J’Mon Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. St. Brown might end up a preseason roster cut – there is no world in which he should be valued over Moore right now.
Deep Sleeper – J’Mon Moore, WR
This is basically just the inverse of what I said before. Moore has good size, leaping ability, and was a 4th round pick. If you want a flyer on a Packers rookie WR – the Packers already told us who they like the most when they drafted Moore.
Undervalued – Adam Thielen, WR
I was going to name the big name receivers that Thielen had more yards than last year until I realized the list was too long. Here’s the short version: only 4 players had more receiving yards than Thielen last year. With Kirk Cousins in town, I don’t see any reason why Thielen wont continue to produce as the top 10 receiver he is. Just because he was a late bloomer doesn’t mean he isn’t good (Doug Baldwin anybody?). People don’t casually throw up 1276 yards seasons.
Overvalued – Dalvin Cook, RB
I own Cook in several leagues and haven’t really even considered moving him in any of them. He’s young was being force-fed the ball in both the running and passing games last year and looked good all the way up to the moment he tore his ACL. But are we maybe a little too bullish on Cook coming off a major knee injury? Somehow his value has increased since his injury. It’s not that I don’t love Cook – I do – it’s that his value seem REALLY high right now.
Deep Sleeper – Laquon Treadwell, WR
I have no idea how Treadwell could find a way to fantasy relevance in an offense already supporting Cook, Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph. But he is still only 23 and was supposed to be the best receiver from the 2016 draft. If Davante Adams can figure it out, why can’t Treadwell?